COL @ LAD
Tuesday · July 7, 2026·full·gamePk 823929free game of the day
refreshed 5h 26m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m
weather · Dodger Stadium
gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteotemperature
74°F
humidity 58%
wind
8 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
LAD
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
+0.16 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
| metric | Michael LorenzenRHP · COL | Justin WrobleskiLHP · LAD |
|---|---|---|
| xERA 2026 | 5.59 | 4.28 |
| xwOBA 2026 | 0.360 | 0.320 |
| wOBA−xwOBA 2026 | 0.039 | -0.061 |
| xERA 2025 | 4.61 | 3.43 |
| xwOBA 2025 | 0.331 | 0.289 |
| Outs/TB 25-26 | 1.50 | 2.29 |
| FIP 25-26 | 4.67 | 3.25 |
| kwERA 25-26 | 3.93 | 3.48 |
| K% 25-26 | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| BB% 25-26 | 6.9% | 5.4% |
| IP 25+26 combined | 227.7 | 160.0 |
| ERA actual 2026 | 6.91 | 2.80 |
| Arsenal RV/100 | -1.54 | 1.47 |
away arsenal — COL
RV/100 -1.54- 4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.424
- Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.299
- Sinker—-1.90xwOBA 0.362
- Cutter—-0.60xwOBA 0.403
- Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.337
- Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.326
- Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.303
home arsenal — LAD
RV/100 1.47- 4-Seam Fastball—+2.60xwOBA 0.284
- Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.336
- Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.407
- Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.357
- Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.312
away · COL vs LHP
projectedΣ xwOBA
2.704
Σ match
2.707
Σ FRV
+1.3
| # | pos | batter | xwOBA | match | FRV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2B | Willi Castro | 0.300 | 0.298 | -2.4 |
| 2 | C | Hunter Goodman | 0.330 | 0.334 | -0.6 |
| 3 | 1B | TJ Rumfield | 0.322 | 0.323 | +2.7 |
| 4 | RF | Tyler Freeman | 0.322 | 0.327 | -2.6 |
| 5 | LF | Jordan Beck | 0.260 | 0.243 | -1.7 |
| 6 | CF | Cole Carrigg | 0.339 | 0.329 | +2.5 |
| 7 | 3B | Kyle Karros | 0.344 | 0.355 | +1.5 |
| 8 | DH | Braxton Fulford | 0.211 | 0.232 | -0.3 |
| 9 | SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 0.276 | 0.266 | +2.4 |
home · LAD vs RHP
projectedΣ xwOBA
3.136
Σ match
3.624
Σ FRV
+16.5
| # | pos | batter | xwOBA | match | FRV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DH | Shohei Ohtani | 0.415 | 0.489 | — |
| 2 | CF | Andy Pages | 0.338 | 0.386 | +9.2 |
| 3 | 1B | Freddie Freeman | 0.387 | 0.445 | +1.8 |
| 4 | SS | Mookie Betts | 0.339 | 0.390 | +4.8 |
| 5 | 3B | Max Muncy | 0.364 | 0.424 | +5.4 |
| 6 | RF | Kyle Tucker | 0.336 | 0.388 | -2.6 |
| 7 | LF | Teoscar Hernández | 0.331 | 0.384 | -0.4 |
| 8 | C | Dalton Rushing | 0.344 | 0.399 | -4.8 |
| 9 | 2B | Alex Freeland | 0.282 | 0.319 | +3.2 |
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Hunter Goodman
- FRV-0.6
- framing-1.2
- blocking+0.5
- throwing+0.1
defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)
Dalton Rushing
- FRV-4.8
- framing-3.8
- blocking-0.3
- throwing-0.1
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)5 arms · kwera
0.49R / inningband [0.41–0.56]
0.114 R/PA · 0.162 R/out · worst: Victor Vodnik (5.30)
LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera
0.36R / inningband [0.32–0.39]
0.084 R/PA · 0.119 R/out · worst: Brock Stewart (3.74)
COL
| Pitcher | Derived | Card | FIP | K% | BB% | Mean IP | SV/HD/GF | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Vodnik | CLOSER | SU | 5.28 | 15.3 | 14.5 | 1.00 | 4/4/10 | stable |
| Jimmy Herget | OPENER | MR | 3.32 | 24.5 | 7.1 | 1.07 | 3/5/5 | stable |
| Brennan Bernardino | OPENER | MR | 3.46 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 0.87 | 1/5/5 | stable |
| Antonio Senzatela | MR | CL | 3.34 | 20.3 | 8.0 | 2.04 | 3/2/7 | ramping down |
| Juan Mejia | MR | SU | 4.05 | 23.5 | 12.0 | 1.12 | 3/6/11 | stable |
| Zach Agnos | MR | MR | 4.99 | 14.9 | 9.0 | 2.31 | 2/0/6 | ramping up |
| Jordan Romano | unknown | CL | 3.30 | 32.0 | 12.0 | — | 5/0/0 | — |
LAD
| Pitcher | Derived | Card | FIP | K% | BB% | Mean IP | SV/HD/GF | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgardo Henriquez | SETUP | MR | 2.86 | 25.0 | 9.3 | 1.05 | 1/6/3 | stable |
| Jack Dreyer | SETUP | MR | 3.85 | 29.4 | 7.0 | 1.08 | 0/4/5 | stable |
| Will Klein | MR | SU | 2.79 | 27.3 | 8.7 | 1.27 | 2/11/3 | ramping down |
| Brock Stewart | MR | MR | 4.15 | 24.1 | 10.3 | 1.00 | 0/3/1 | insufficient data |
| Alex Vesia | MOP_UP | SU | 2.27 | 33.1 | 15.3 | 0.78 | 3/15/3 | stable |
| Tanner Scott | MOP_UP | CL | 2.45 | 34.1 | 3.6 | 0.95 | 12/6/10 | stable |
| Kyle Hurt | MOP_UP | MR | 3.54 | 29.4 | 11.9 | 0.98 | 1/8/9 | stable |
glossary
Pitcher metrics
- xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
- xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
- wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
- Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
- FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
- kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator.
5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill. - K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
- IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
- Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
- AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
- vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
- xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
- xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
- FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
- Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
- Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
- 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
- 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
- MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
- Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
- Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
- Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.