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today's slate

LAA @ SEA

Friday · September 25, 2026·full·gamePk 823085free game of the day

refreshed 1h 56m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

53°F

humidity 71%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

clear

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Reid DetmersLHP · LAA	Bryce MillerRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	3.24	3.65
xwOBA 2026	0.279	0.295
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	0.011
xERA 2025	3.61	5.30
xwOBA 2025	0.296	0.352
Outs/TB 25-26	2.32	1.80
FIP 25-26	3.06	4.75
kwERA 25-26	2.80	3.75
K% 25-26	28.8%	21.9%
BB% 25-26	7.2%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	242.7	203.0
ERA actual 2026	3.47	3.99
ERA (L4)	3.00	3.38
WHIP (L4)	0.92	1.50
K% (L4)	32.6%	24.1%
BB% (L4)	2.2%	13.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	4.67
L4 window	09/02→09/19 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	09/02→09/19 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.92	-0.06

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.92

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.314
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.218
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.307
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.301

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.327
Split-Finger—+0.80xwOBA 0.218
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.312
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.377
Sweeper—+2.20xwOBA 0.199
Cutter—-5.70xwOBA 0.468
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.172

away · LAA vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.702

Σ match

2.657

Σ FRV

-9.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.313	0.310	-2.4
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.381	0.358	-3.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.317	0.310	+0.6
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.309	0.306	-6.0
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.293	0.284	-2.0
6	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.266	0.260	-0.5
7	CF	Jose Siri	0.299	0.304	+0.8
8	RF	Josh Lowe	0.287	0.277	+6.1
9	2B	Christian Moore	0.237	0.247	-2.0

home · SEA vs LHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.865

Σ match

2.581

Σ FRV

-34.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.350	0.304	-7.0
2	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.319	0.290	-10.2
3	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.353	0.334	-0.4
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.312	0.263	-5.4
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.337	0.300	-0.7
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.274	+2.0
7	2B	Cole Young	0.312	0.282	-4.9
8	DH	Lazaro Montes	0.312	0.291	-0.3
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.257	0.244	-7.3

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-2.0
framing-1.6
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.3

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-5.4
framing-4.2
blocking+3.0
throwing-4.2

LAA · Reid Detmers

Last outing 2026-09-19 vs MIN · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-14: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 51 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 2.62

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 52 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 1.91

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Bryce Miller

Last outing 2026-09-19 vs COL · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-13: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 81 · Pitching+ 83 · botStf 54 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 6.33

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 99 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 55 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 4.06

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.35–0.49]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Trevor Martin (5.04)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.41)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	SU	4.96	22.4	13.3	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.76	29.1	8.1	0.56	0/10/0	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	CL	3.81	21.2	7.5	1.61	4/8/21	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.90	26.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	MR	4.54	24.3	11.3	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Trevor Martin	MR	MR	7.27	12.1	9.1	1.89	0/0/2	ramping up
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.52	23.2	12.2	—	0/5/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.99	20.3	2.7	—	0/3/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	LR	4.92	22.5	6.9	—	0/2/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.33	37.1	10.0	0.93	28/1/29	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	3.91	23.5	8.0	0.82	1/21/5	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.99	18.8	6.2	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.49	14.2	5.9	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.58	24.9	12.1	0.89	12/8/18	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.62	23.3	8.4	0.94	1/26/2	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.72	18.6	9.0	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	3.99	26.3	8.9	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.84	22.7	4.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.