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today's slate

HOU @ ATH

Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824950past slate · free

refreshed 14h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

82°F

humidity 34%

wind

8 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.29 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.29 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

opener / bulk pattern

ATH: Mason Barnett opens → bulk: Aaron Civale· predicted bulk based on 2/13 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Peter LambertRHP · HOU	Mason BarnettRHP · opener · ATH	Aaron CivaleRHP · bulk · ATH
xERA 2026	3.67	5.39	4.38
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.352	0.321
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.001	0.044	0.028
xERA 2025	—	3.90	4.10
xwOBA 2025	—	0.307	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	2.34	1.49	1.69
FIP 25-26	3.80	6.13	4.63
kwERA 25-26	3.72	4.58	3.93
K% 25-26	22.9%	19.4%	19.5%
BB% 25-26	8.9%	12.6%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	151.0	66.3	211.0
ERA actual 2026	3.70	7.16	4.21
ERA (L4)	3.91	11.93	8.64
WHIP (L4)	1.22	2.65	1.98
K% (L4)	22.2%	16.5%	18.5%
BB% (L4)	6.1%	17.7%	6.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.75	3.58	4.17
L4 window	08/31→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	08/06→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	06/17→07/04 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (+2)	89 (−8)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.86 (−0.61)	7.47 (+2.09)	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.19	-1.80	-0.37

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.19

4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.330
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.248
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.287
Cutter—+0.30xwOBA 0.345
Sinker—+0.90xwOBA 0.266
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.264
Slurve—+0.50xwOBA 0.375

home arsenal · BULK Aaron Civale — ATH

RV/100 -0.37

Cutter—+1.30xwOBA 0.284
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.282
Sinker—-2.70xwOBA 0.379
4-Seam Fastball—-3.20xwOBA 0.437
Split-Finger—-1.50xwOBA 0.273
Slider—-4.60xwOBA 0.429

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.757

Σ match

2.934

Σ FRV

-6.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.326	0.355	-3.3
2	LF	Yordan Alvarez	0.444	0.480	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.323	0.339	+1.5
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.272	0.294	-10.0
5	DH	Yainer Diaz	0.312	0.308	-5.3
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.298	0.301	+7.3
7	RF	Cam Smith	0.318	0.337	+2.5
8	CF	Lucas Spence	0.231	0.275	-0.1
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.233	0.243	+3.2

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.860

Σ match

2.736

Σ FRV

-34.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.318	0.304	+3.0
2	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.328	0.319	-10.8
3	DH	Shea Langeliers	0.358	0.326	-3.6
4	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.300	0.293	-2.4
5	3B	Zack Gelof	0.322	0.309	-0.4
6	2B	Donovan Walton	0.326	0.310	-7.0
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.305	0.301	-7.2
8	SS	Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	0.320	0.309	+0.8
9	C	Jonah Heim	0.283	0.263	-6.8

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.2
framing+5.9
blocking-1.6
throwing-1.1

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-6.8
framing-1.4
blocking-2.2
throwing-2.1

HOU · Peter Lambert

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs ATL · 5.1 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	92	91(-2)	95
Location+	100	108(+7)	105
Pitching+	93	101(+8)	99
botStf	47	45(-2)	47
botCmd	56	55(-0)	60
botOvr	52	53(+1)	56
SIERA	4.47	3.66(-0.80)	3.86

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.26

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Aaron Civale

Last outing 2026-09-22 vs Miami Marlins · 2.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	96	99(+3)	—
Location+	108	90(-18)	—
Pitching+	102	81(-21)	—
botStf	44	44(+0)	—
botCmd	57	47(-9)	—
botOvr	53	48(-6)	—
SIERA	4.67	3.73(-0.94)	—

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-23 → 2026-07-04. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-07-04: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 115 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 43 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 3.66

2026-06-23: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 41 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.16

Latest botERA 5.15

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.31–0.54]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.33)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.103 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.92	32.9	9.0	0.91	26/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.59	30.4	15.2	0.92	8/16/21	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	4.33	23.4	10.6	1.68	1/12/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.96	17.2	8.2	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Logan VanWey	MR	MR	2.99	19.4	0.0	1.20	0/0/5	ramping up
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	4.67	25.0	8.3	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.66	22.4	13.4	0.67	0/11/2	stable
Josh Hendrickson	unknown	MR	0.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.28	28.7	15.2	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.54	29.4	12.1	1.38	0/12/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.07	28.2	13.3	0.93	16/13/13	stable
Drew Rom	MR	MR	3.09	23.6	9.7	1.13	0/3/1	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	3.43	17.9	9.8	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	LR	4.31	25.3	12.3	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.48	28.2	11.4	1.08	6/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.58	14.3	9.7	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	8.99	18.2	15.2	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.94	22.2	7.6	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 HOU · 5 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

7 R

10H · 5HR · 2BB · 10K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.676 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 14 K · relief 6.3 IP · 5 arms

ATH

5 R

11H · 3HR · 3BB · 14K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.639 · K% 35.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Isaac Paredes (3B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Christian Walker (1B) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Lucas Spence (CF) · 3-4 | 3 HR, 5 RBI, 3 R3-HR night · 3 H · 12 TB · 5 RBI

tough nights

Jose Altuve (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Yainer Diaz (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Lawrence Butler (RF) · 3-5 | 2B, 2 K3 H · 4 TB
Jeff McNeil (2B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR
Zack Gelof (3B) · 2-3 | 2 HR, BB, 2 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Henry Bolte (LF) · 0-5 | 4 K0-for-5 · 4 K
Carlos Cortes (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K