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today's slate

CIN @ ATL

Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824866past slate · free
refreshed 18h 30m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
69°F
humidity 67%
wind
6 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
clear
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.19 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricBrady SingerRHP · CINTyler MahleRHP · ATL
xERA 20265.723.89
xwOBA 20260.3610.304
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.0110.002
xERA 20254.274.24
xwOBA 20250.3200.319
Outs/TB 25-261.762.27
FIP 25-264.723.66
kwERA 25-263.973.79
K% 25-2620.3%21.2%
BB% 25-268.4%7.8%
IP 25+26 combined323.7230.7
ERA actual 20265.673.81
ERA (L4)13.501.05
WHIP (L4)2.760.78
K% (L4)13.5%22.1%
BB% (L4)15.6%2.1%
IP/gm (L4)4.176.42
L4 window08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/30→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)88 (−4)89 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)7.65 (+2.99)3.79 (−0.28)
Arsenal RV/100-1.270.27

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -1.27
  • Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.373
  • Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.340
  • Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.298
  • Cutter—-3.70xwOBA 0.465
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-7.00xwOBA 0.474

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.27
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.293
  • Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.292
  • Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.319
  • Slider—-4.00xwOBA 0.397

away · CIN vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.754
Σ match
2.753
Σ FRV
-6.2
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFCarlos Jorge0.2380.281+0.8
2SSElly De La Cruz0.3750.382+3.7
31BSal Stewart0.3460.340-3.9
4CTyler Stephenson0.3260.310-8.1
5LFJJ Bleday0.3390.328-2.1
6DHEugenio Suárez0.2990.304-5.7
7RFHéctor Rodríguez0.2450.244-0.1
82BMatt McLain0.2960.286+4.1
93BKe'Bryan Hayes0.2900.278+5.2

home · ATL vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.870
Σ match
3.401
Σ FRV
+15.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1DHDrake Baldwin0.3660.433-0.4
2RFRonald Acuña Jr.0.3680.456-4.8
31BMatt Olson0.3540.422+11.5
4CFMichael Harris II0.3400.395+11.0
5SSMauricio Dubón0.3030.374+3.8
62BOzzie Albies0.2780.338-2.8
7LFMike Yastrzemski0.3100.351-0.5
83BAustin Riley0.2990.343-1.1
9CSean Murphy0.2520.288-1.4

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson
  • FRV-8.1
  • framing-9.4
  • blocking+3.2
  • throwing-1.9

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy
  • FRV-1.4
  • framing-1.0
  • blocking+1.0
  • throwing-1.3

CIN · Brady Singer

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs LAD · 3.1 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9284(-7)88
Location+9676(-20)82
Pitching+8859(-29)69
botStf4744(-4)46
botCmd5446(-8)51
botOvr5143(-8)46
SIERA4.668.65(+3.98)7.65

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 5.97

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Tyler Mahle

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs HOU · 6.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+8796(+9)89
Location+110121(+11)121
Pitching+101119(+18)114
botStf4854(+6)51
botCmd5960(+1)59
botOvr5455(+1)55
SIERA4.073.37(-0.71)3.79

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.83

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.44R / inningband [0.34–0.55]
0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Connor Phillips (5.40)
ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.43]
0.085 R/PA · 0.121 R/out · worst: AJ Smith-Shawver (4.67)

CIN

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Emilio PagánCLOSERCL4.2425.96.50.9124/0/15stable
Graham AshcraftSETUPMR3.7526.616.11.041/11/5stable
Brock BurkeSETUPSU3.7623.912.90.952/22/10stable
Pierce JohnsonSETUPMR4.7519.99.20.881/8/8stable
Connor PhillipsSETUPMR5.8421.121.11.111/5/6stable
Luis MeyMRMR3.6130.312.91.240/4/0ramping down
Tejay AntoneMRSU3.8424.17.51.001/10/6stable
Zach McCambleyMRMR4.5421.312.81.080/0/3ramping down
Carson SpiersunknownLR10.3429.40.0—0/0/0—

ATL

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Raisel IglesiasCLOSERCL3.1627.27.21.0434/0/29stable
Dylan LeeSETUPSU2.1529.36.60.970/30/1stable
Didier FuentesSETUPSU2.4031.67.21.203/18/4ramping down
Robert SuarezSETUPMR2.4520.84.81.034/12/6stable
Dylan DoddSETUPMR3.6527.67.71.182/14/4ramping down
Brent SuterOPENERMR3.6020.56.81.540/3/13stable
Victor MederosMRMR3.0022.99.31.871/2/4ramping up
Ray KerrunknownMR3.9420.01.8—0/2/0—
AJ Smith-ShawverunknownLR5.5218.312.2—0/1/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
13
7 CIN · 6 ATL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

CIN

7 R

7H · 3HR · 2BB · 7K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.515 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

ATL

6 R

12H · 1HR · 4BB · 4K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.472 · K% 9.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights
  • Carlos Jorge (CF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
  • Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
  • Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR
tough nights
  • JJ Bleday (LF) · 0-40-for-4
  • Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) · 0-40-for-4

ATL · standout lines

big nights
  • Michael Harris II (CF) · 3-5 | 2B, RBI, R3 H · 4 TB
  • Austin Riley (3B) · 1-2 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
tough nights
  • Matt Olson (1B) · 0-4 | RBI0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks