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today's slate

CLE @ BOS

Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824707past slate · free

refreshed 18h 30m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

57°F

humidity 52%

wind

5 mph

in from RF

precip

overcast

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

-0.10 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.10 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_

opener / bulk pattern

CLE: Daniel Espino opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Daniel EspinoRHP · CLE	Ranger SuarezLHP · BOS
xERA 2026	3.54	3.73
xwOBA 2026	0.291	0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.038	-0.010
xERA 2025	—	3.14
xwOBA 2025	—	0.277
Outs/TB 25-26	1.82	2.22
FIP 25-26	4.29	3.16
kwERA 25-26	2.35	3.44
K% 25-26	37.3%	23.0%
BB% 25-26	11.9%	6.7%
IP 25+26 combined	13.3	300.7
ERA actual 2026	4.73	3.27
ERA (L4)	8.31	2.88
WHIP (L4)	1.62	1.20
K% (L4)	25.0%	17.6%
BB% (L4)	15.0%	7.8%
IP/gm (L4)	1.08	6.25
L4 window	09/09→09/18 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified	08/30→09/18 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	109 (−1)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.49 (+2.79)	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.27	0.86

away arsenal · BULK Daniel Espino — CLE

RV/100 -0.27

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.302
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.304

home arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.86

Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.334
4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.323
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.311
Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.214
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.277
Slider—-0.20xwOBA 0.286

away · CLE vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.795

Σ match

2.727

Σ FRV

+15.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.327	0.319	+6.4
2	3B	José Ramírez	0.327	0.317	+2.2
3	RF	Chase DeLauter	0.346	0.329	+1.7
4	DH	Jo Adell	0.324	0.330	-9.3
5	LF	Angel Martínez	0.306	0.306	+0.4
6	1B	David Fry	0.264	0.260	-1.8
7	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.302	0.297	-1.5
8	C	Patrick Bailey	0.304	0.289	+6.4
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.295	0.280	+10.8

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.774

Σ match

2.720

Σ FRV

+47.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Nick Sogard	0.310	0.291	+3.6
2	DH	Mickey Gasper	0.360	0.422	-1.9
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.328	0.321	+11.3
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.350	0.325	+4.2
5	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.295	0.291	+5.5
6	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.284	0.269	+15.9
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.301	0.277	+4.5
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.250	0.228	-0.7
9	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.296	0.295	+4.8

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+6.4
framing+4.5
blocking-1.6
throwing+3.6

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+11.3
framing+6.3
blocking+1.1
throwing+3.9

CLE · Daniel Espino

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs ATH · 1.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	110	103(-6)	109
Location+	101	95(-6)	101
Pitching+	109	101(-8)	105
botStf	57	56(-1)	55
botCmd	53	53(+0)	58
botOvr	58	55(-3)	58
SIERA	2.70	12.45(+9.76)	5.49

Last 3 outings: 2026-09-12 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.86

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Ranger Suarez

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs TB · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-18. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-12: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 121 · Pitching+ 119 · botStf 48 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 2.46

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 44 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 4.33

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.48]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Shawn Armstrong (4.26)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.21)

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.23	35.9	7.9	1.05	40/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.85	37.4	15.4	0.78	1/26/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.36	24.3	7.0	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.74	22.6	8.5	0.86	1/31/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.09	22.9	11.9	0.79	0/16/5	stable
Shawn Armstrong	SETUP	MR	4.56	22.4	12.9	0.88	0/8/8	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	LR	4.29	37.3	11.9	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.64	25.6	11.2	1.33	0/4/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	MR	4.55	18.9	7.4	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.49	33.3	10.8	0.96	35/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.09	29.8	4.5	0.97	4/26/7	stable
Tyron Guerrero	SETUP	SU	2.45	24.7	4.8	1.03	0/19/2	ramping up
Erik Miller	SETUP	MR	3.29	32.6	15.2	0.86	5/14/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	3.86	23.8	7.3	0.96	1/8/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.24	26.9	11.9	1.53	0/5/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.15	18.2	8.3	1.60	1/2/5	ramping up
Raymond Burgos	unknown	LR	4.13	17.4	1.4	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 CLE · 0 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CLE

1 R

4H · 1HR · 1BB · 8K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.151 · SLGe 0.219 · K% 24.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 12 K · relief 8.0 IP · 5 arms

BOS

0 R

2H · 0HR · 4BB · 12K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.069 · K% 36.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Angel Martínez (RF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Chase DeLauter (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Jo Adell (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

BOS · standout lines

tough nights

Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Trevor Story (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K