Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824623past slate · free
refreshed 23h 10m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 2:20 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
64°F
humidity 78%
wind
10 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
mostly clear
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.34 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.34 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Tyler PhillipsRHP · MIA
Matthew BoydLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.66
4.72
xwOBA 2026
0.330
0.332
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.016
-0.025
xERA 2025
3.64
3.74
xwOBA 2025
0.297
0.301
Outs/TB 25-26
2.15
2.18
FIP 25-26
4.43
3.89
kwERA 25-26
4.32
3.73
K% 25-26
18.1%
20.4%
BB% 25-26
9.1%
6.5%
IP 25+26 combined
200.3
299.3
ERA actual 2026
3.45
4.06
ERA (L4)
2.60
4.37
WHIP (L4)
0.98
1.24
K% (L4)
19.7%
18.5%
BB% (L4)
10.6%
7.6%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
5.67
L4 window
09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/01→09/19 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
95 (−2)
92 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.11 (−0.47)
4.45 (+0.05)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.00
0.15
away arsenal — MIA
RV/100 -0.00
Sinker—-1.40xwOBA 0.388
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.280
Split-Finger—+1.30xwOBA 0.267
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.343
4-Seam Fastball—-3.60xwOBA 0.373
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.15
4-Seam Fastball—-0.50xwOBA 0.386
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.321
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.242
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.227
away · MIA vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.402
Σ match
2.715
Σ FRV
+11.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Otto Lopez
0.327
0.344
+11.1
2
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.348
0.373
-0.1
3
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.310
0.327
+5.3
4
3B
Javier Sanoja
0.294
0.297
+3.2
5
DH
Agustín Ramírez
0.284
0.292
-4.8
6
RF
Esteury Ruiz
0.276
0.302
-3.8
7
1B
Deyvison De Los Santos
0.173
0.263
-1.3
8
2B
Jared Serna
0.214
0.278
-0.8
9
C
Brian Navarreto
0.176
0.239
+2.5
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.920
Σ match
3.007
Σ FRV
+63.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.376
0.386
+27.1
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.337
0.335
+8.0
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.333
0.359
+2.5
4
DH
Michael Conforto
0.336
0.339
-1.8
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.315
0.343
+5.9
6
2B
Nico Hoerner
0.323
0.335
+8.8
7
3B
Pedro Ramírez
0.282
0.288
+1.0
8
C
Carson Kelly
0.313
0.308
+0.2
9
SS
Dansby Swanson
0.305
0.313
+11.3
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Brian Navarreto
FRV+2.5
framing+0.1
blocking-0.2
throwing+2.6
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.2
framing+1.1
blocking+1.5
throwing-2.4
MIA · Tyler Phillips
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs SD · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
95(-2)
95
Location+
98
109(+11)
109
Pitching+
95
103(+7)
100
botStf
54
52(-2)
52
botCmd
52
49(-3)
51
botOvr
54
51(-3)
54
SIERA
4.58
1.66(-2.92)
4.11
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.54
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Matthew Boyd
Last outing 2026-09-19 vs CIN · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
95
90(-5)
92
Location+
107
106(-1)
101
Pitching+
100
96(-4)
92
botStf
47
46(-1)
47
botCmd
56
57(+1)
56
botOvr
52
55(+3)
52
SIERA
4.40
4.53(+0.12)
4.45
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-19. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.84
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Colin Rea (4.31)
MIA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Calvin Faucher
SETUP
CL
2.96
24.7
12.5
0.98
3/18/7
stable
Michael Petersen
SETUP
SU
3.07
30.7
10.6
1.06
1/25/4
stable
Dax Fulton
BULK
MR
3.44
23.6
13.6
2.50
0/0/3
ramping down
Cade Gibson
MR
MR
4.04
19.6
9.6
1.28
0/4/7
stable
Victor Vodnik
MR
MR
4.15
16.3
12.5
1.08
4/6/12
stable
Josh Ekness
MR
MR
4.63
18.4
15.2
0.89
1/2/2
stable
Tyler Zuber
MR
SU
5.23
24.0
6.3
0.87
1/10/5
stable
Jack Ralston
unknown
MR
5.54
24.2
12.9
—
0/3/0
—
Bradley Blalock
unknown
LR
6.84
25.7
8.6
—
0/0/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
3.96
25.2
8.4
0.88
3/2/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.82
31.2
13.3
1.15
6/14/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
MR
4.06
25.6
8.9
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.77
28.5
8.7
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
4.99
16.2
7.0
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
3.90
21.3
10.7
1.12
3/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.64
18.9
7.1
4.67
2/1/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.83
17.2
8.1
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.34
20.3
10.3
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.