Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824298past slate · free
refreshed 22h 20m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Coors Field
gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
72°F
humidity 47%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
3%
overcast
park
COL
open · HP→CF 0°
wind impact on total
-0.21 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Eduardo RodriguezLHP · AZ
Tanner GordonRHP · COL
xERA 2026
4.29
4.82
xwOBA 2026
0.318
0.335
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.020
0.055
xERA 2025
4.51
5.88
xwOBA 2025
0.328
0.368
Outs/TB 25-26
1.87
1.31
FIP 25-26
4.19
4.75
kwERA 25-26
4.08
3.73
K% 25-26
19.4%
18.6%
BB% 25-26
8.4%
4.7%
IP 25+26 combined
338.0
175.7
ERA actual 2026
2.89
6.01
ERA (L4)
5.82
9.18
WHIP (L4)
1.57
2.16
K% (L4)
21.0%
18.1%
BB% (L4)
10.0%
6.0%
IP/gm (L4)
5.42
4.17
L4 window
09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (+4)
84 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.32 (−0.46)
4.55 (+0.51)
Arsenal RV/100
0.60
-1.29
away arsenal — AZ
RV/100 0.60
4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.315
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.276
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.331
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.350
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.416
home arsenal — COL
RV/100 -1.29
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.364
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.314
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.312
Curveball—-4.30xwOBA 0.258
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.324
away · AZ vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.885
Σ match
3.018
Σ FRV
+28.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Lars Nootbaar
0.338
0.364
+1.9
2
2B
Ketel Marte
0.342
0.351
+4.8
3
DH
Gabriel Moreno
0.362
0.374
+8.6
4
SS
Geraldo Perdomo
0.326
0.348
+12.3
5
1B
Pavin Smith
0.279
0.287
+0.5
6
3B
Nolan Arenado
0.296
0.318
+2.5
7
RF
Corbin Carroll
0.345
0.360
+4.2
8
C
James McCann
0.285
0.300
-6.3
9
CF
Tim Tawa
0.312
0.316
-0.4
home · COL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.741
Σ match
2.796
Σ FRV
-8.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Jake McCarthy
0.325
0.339
-1.0
2
2B
Connor Norby
0.304
0.305
-2.2
3
DH
Hunter Goodman
0.320
0.331
-2.3
4
1B
TJ Rumfield
0.333
0.337
+4.3
5
CF
Cole Carrigg
0.310
0.316
+0.6
6
3B
Kyle Karros
0.337
0.354
+0.1
7
C
Brett Sullivan
0.284
0.287
-5.5
8
RF
Jordan Beck
0.248
0.252
-3.1
9
SS
Ezequiel Tovar
0.280
0.275
+1.0
defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)
James McCann
FRV-6.3
framing-5.0
blocking+0.0
throwing-1.1
defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)
Brett Sullivan
FRV-5.5
framing-4.5
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.0
AZ · Eduardo Rodriguez
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs NYY · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
101(+9)
97
Location+
109
90(-19)
104
Pitching+
103
88(-14)
100
botStf
45
47(+1)
47
botCmd
59
54(-5)
59
botOvr
54
48(-6)
53
SIERA
4.79
5.72(+0.93)
4.32
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.09
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
COL · Tanner Gordon
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs SD · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
87
81(-6)
84
Location+
109
118(+10)
107
Pitching+
93
101(+7)
89
botStf
42
37(-4)
38
botCmd
59
60(+0)
54
botOvr
52
51(-1)
46
SIERA
4.03
5.43(+1.40)
4.55
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.56
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.