Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 824059past slate · free
refreshed 24h 20m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Kauffman Stadium
gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
75°F
humidity 51%
wind
6 mph
in from LF
precip
1%
overcast
park
KC
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.17 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.17 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
David SandlinRHP · CWS
Randy DobnakRHP · KC
xERA 2026
4.06
4.62
xwOBA 2026
0.310
0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.013
-0.013
xERA 2025
—
5.73
xwOBA 2025
—
0.364
Outs/TB 25-26
1.84
2.13
FIP 25-26
4.66
4.32
kwERA 25-26
3.74
4.61
K% 25-26
22.8%
14.9%
BB% 25-26
9.0%
8.3%
IP 25+26 combined
34.3
78.3
ERA actual 2026
6.29
3.08
ERA (L4)
5.14
5.91
WHIP (L4)
1.19
1.22
K% (L4)
21.8%
16.1%
BB% (L4)
6.9%
4.6%
IP/gm (L4)
5.25
5.33
L4 window
06/26→09/18 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (+1)
78 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.33 (−0.80)
4.66 (+0.11)
Arsenal RV/100
0.29
0.30
away arsenal — CWS
RV/100 0.29
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.368
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.233
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.430
Sweeper—+1.10xwOBA 0.287
Sinker—+3.50xwOBA 0.205
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.183
home arsenal — KC
RV/100 0.30
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.379
Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.346
Changeup—-0.10xwOBA 0.255
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.262
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.297
away · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.918
Σ match
3.065
Σ FRV
+15.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.343
0.360
-9.6
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.305
0.331
-1.8
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.380
0.416
-3.9
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.346
0.359
-1.9
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.306
0.333
-1.6
6
CF
Tristan Peters
0.315
0.323
+10.3
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.299
0.296
+11.2
8
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.299
0.316
+9.7
9
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.325
0.330
+3.5
home · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.792
Σ match
2.852
Σ FRV
+18.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.310
0.318
+2.9
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.378
0.390
+15.0
3
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.335
0.338
-0.3
4
DH
Salvador Perez
0.311
0.319
-9.6
5
2B
Michael Massey
0.306
0.317
+7.0
6
3B
Nick Loftin
0.294
0.303
-1.6
7
RF
John Rave
0.311
0.319
+1.3
8
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.253
0.249
+3.4
9
LF
Isaac Collins
0.294
0.300
+0.0
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.8
framing-1.7
blocking-1.7
throwing+1.5
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+2.9
framing+3.5
blocking-2.1
throwing+1.6
CWS · David Sandlin
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs DET · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
103(+4)
100
Location+
95
102(+7)
100
Pitching+
95
106(+11)
99
botStf
50
48(-2)
49
botCmd
49
50(+1)
51
botOvr
50
53(+4)
52
SIERA
4.13
3.36(-0.77)
3.33
Last 3 starts: 2026-06-26 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.19
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
KC · Randy Dobnak
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs PIT · 3.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
82
78(-3)
78
Location+
106
107(+1)
105
Pitching+
89
88(-1)
87
botStf
41
40(-1)
41
botCmd
52
55(+3)
52
botOvr
48
49(+1)
46
SIERA
4.56
6.17(+1.61)
4.66
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.95
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.115 R/PA · 0.163 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.18)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
3.26
22.0
9.1
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.82
31.2
9.1
1.33
10/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.24
21.5
6.2
0.98
8/10/8
stable
Huascar Brazobán
OPENER
MR
3.82
20.8
11.2
1.16
0/11/1
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.73
29.1
15.5
0.91
1/10/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.12
21.3
7.6
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.28
37.4
14.0
—
0/1/0
—
Noah Schultz
SP
MR
4.62
20.6
10.0
4.56
0/1/0
ramping down
Luis Castillo
SP
LR
5.03
18.9
7.4
4.87
0/1/2
stable
KC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Alex Lange
CLOSER
MR
5.13
22.4
11.4
1.03
10/3/20
stable
Lucas Erceg
CLOSER
SU
5.33
15.1
13.3
0.96
12/5/24
stable
Connor Thomas
BULK
MR
5.37
15.9
8.4
3.67
0/4/0
insufficient data
Steven Cruz
OPENER
CL
5.15
26.4
8.1
1.06
8/5/7
stable
Jose Cuas
MR
MR
2.60
24.7
12.9
1.27
0/5/4
ramping down
Nolan Hoffman
MR
MR
2.94
17.9
7.1
1.56
0/3/2
insufficient data
Anthony Gose
unknown
MR
2.91
9.5
4.8
—
0/2/0
—
Nate Pearson
unknown
MR
3.65
21.5
11.0
—
4/6/0
—
Tony Gonsolin
unknown
LR
7.59
33.3
20.0
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.