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today's slate

SD @ LAD

Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 823895past slate · free

refreshed 16h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

70°F

humidity 90%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

mostly clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.11 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Nick PivettaRHP · SD	Tyler GlasnowRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	2.92	2.94
xwOBA 2026	0.265	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.019	-0.015
xERA 2025	3.96	3.33
xwOBA 2025	0.309	0.285
Outs/TB 25-26	2.52	2.76
FIP 25-26	3.32	3.40
kwERA 25-26	3.00	2.97
K% 25-26	26.8%	30.7%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	10.4%
IP 25+26 combined	211.7	158.0
ERA actual 2026	3.30	3.46
ERA (L4)	1.93	4.30
WHIP (L4)	0.86	1.13
K% (L4)	20.4%	32.6%
BB% (L4)	1.9%	10.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.75
L4 window	09/07→09/18 (3 st) · 2/3 dates verified	08/30→09/18 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	1.54	1.24

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 1.54

4-Seam Fastball—+1.90xwOBA 0.265
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.304
Cutter—+3.60xwOBA 0.284
Sweeper—-0.70xwOBA 0.218

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.24

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.340
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.164
Sinker—+2.40xwOBA 0.325
Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.233

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.810

Σ match

2.585

Σ FRV

+34.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.380	0.336	+4.1
2	LF	Dustin Harris	0.313	0.268	+1.5
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.331	0.307	+7.4
4	1B	Ty France	0.332	0.286	+10.6
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.346	0.307	+10.7
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.323	0.295	+4.5
7	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.273	0.266	-1.8
8	DH	Samad Taylor	0.315	0.283	-1.7
9	C	Ethan Salas	0.197	0.237	-0.6

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.079

Σ match

2.678

Σ FRV

+10.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.400	0.336	—
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.338	0.286	+6.0
3	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.365	0.327	+1.8
4	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.332	0.287	-5.9
5	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.333	0.309	-6.9
6	3B	Max Muncy	0.348	0.321	+0.9
7	CF	Andy Pages	0.342	0.291	+12.1
8	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.317	0.284	-0.2
9	2B	Tommy Edman	0.304	0.236	+2.7

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas

FRV-0.6
framing-0.6
blocking+0.1
throwing-0.1

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV-0.2
framing+3.4
blocking-1.2
throwing-2.4

SD · Nick Pivetta

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs MIA · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-18. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-13: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 102 · botStf 49 · botCmd 62 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 2.63

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 89 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 48 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 4.90

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Tyler Glasnow

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs SF · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-18. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-12: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 79 · Pitching+ 80 · botStf 58 · botCmd 38 · botOvr 46 · SIERA 4.52

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 96 · Pitching+ 101 · botStf 58 · botCmd 47 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 3.98

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.41)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.36–0.43]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Kris Bubic (3.83)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.13	48.3	9.3	1.04	37/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.36	30.1	7.6	1.16	3/28/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.55	21.8	8.8	1.40	0/9/5	stable
Jason Adam	SETUP	MR	4.67	16.4	6.0	0.90	2/17/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.77	26.9	6.5	1.09	2/16/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.03	15.6	7.3	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	3.85	24.2	13.1	1.22	0/3/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.25	25.9	14.1	1.35	1/11/5	ramping down
Randy Vásquez	SP	LR	4.31	15.0	6.5	4.83	0/2/0	ramping down

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.18	32.0	6.1	0.94	23/13/21	stable
Edwin Díaz	CLOSER	SU	4.95	27.8	12.2	0.86	7/0/6	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.20	30.7	13.9	0.76	3/20/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.73	23.8	10.0	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.47	28.0	9.1	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.79	24.5	9.2	1.06	1/8/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.39	29.2	6.2	1.00	1/8/3	stable
Kris Bubic	SP	MR	3.57	24.8	11.7	5.59	0/1/0	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	LR	4.20	20.1	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down
Roki Sasaki	SP	MR	4.81	23.1	9.3	5.10	0/0/0	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 SD · 2 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

4 R

6H · 0HR · 2BB · 16K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.219 · K% 45.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

LAD

2 R

7H · 0HR · 2BB · 12K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.257 · K% 31.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 16 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

tough nights

Dustin Harris (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Manny Machado (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ty France (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 0-3 | HBP, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Kyle Tucker (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Max Muncy (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K