Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 823493past slate · free
refreshed 18h 30m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
63°F
humidity 47%
wind
7 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
-0.07 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Ian SeymourLHP · TB
Cam SchlittlerRHP · NYY
xERA 2026
3.65
2.85
xwOBA 2026
0.295
0.262
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.022
-0.019
xERA 2025
3.93
4.10
xwOBA 2025
0.308
0.314
Outs/TB 25-26
1.95
2.68
FIP 25-26
3.87
2.88
kwERA 25-26
2.86
2.65
K% 25-26
28.2%
30.3%
BB% 25-26
7.1%
7.4%
IP 25+26 combined
184.3
263.7
ERA actual 2026
4.38
1.94
ERA (L4)
5.31
1.00
WHIP (L4)
1.28
0.52
K% (L4)
30.7%
34.4%
BB% (L4)
4.5%
5.2%
IP/gm (L4)
5.08
6.75
L4 window
08/31→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/02→09/19 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−5)
114 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.91 (−0.14)
2.88 (−0.20)
Arsenal RV/100
0.18
1.35
away arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.18
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.256
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.294
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.283
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.383
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.299
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 1.35
4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.233
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.289
Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.268
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.325
away · TB vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.776
Σ match
2.386
Σ FRV
+10.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.346
0.264
—
2
C
Liam Hicks
0.321
0.287
+3.0
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.360
0.320
-6.7
4
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.333
0.286
+9.0
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.265
0.227
+3.5
6
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.257
0.229
+10.3
7
2B
Richie Palacios
0.309
0.267
-3.8
8
1B
Ryan Vilade
0.334
0.275
-2.9
9
SS
Taylor Walls
0.251
0.231
-2.1
home · NYY vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.822
Σ match
2.603
Σ FRV
+6.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Paul Goldschmidt
0.313
0.302
+6.5
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.337
0.299
+8.1
3
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.327
0.290
-8.9
4
1B
Ben Rice
0.379
0.363
-4.2
5
3B
Amed Rosario
0.308
0.273
-7.4
6
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.289
0.266
-1.2
7
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.292
0.285
+5.7
8
C
Austin Wells
0.296
0.269
+7.5
9
CF
José Caballero
0.281
0.255
+0.6
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+3.0
framing+1.1
blocking-0.7
throwing+1.8
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+7.5
framing+6.6
blocking+2.4
throwing-1.5
TB · Ian Seymour
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs BOS · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
99(-3)
98
Location+
101
99(-1)
105
Pitching+
102
99(-3)
101
botStf
51
49(-2)
46
botCmd
55
53(-2)
56
botOvr
53
51(-2)
51
SIERA
4.06
4.49(+0.44)
3.91
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.62
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Cam Schlittler
Last outing 2026-09-19 vs AZ · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
113
112(-1)
114
Location+
103
94(-10)
97
Pitching+
115
102(-13)
111
botStf
56
52(-5)
56
botCmd
55
51(-4)
50
botOvr
57
49(-8)
53
SIERA
3.08
4.40(+1.32)
2.88
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.83
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.48]
0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.21)
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.36–0.55]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.08)
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.06
26.1
9.1
0.96
40/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.03
22.5
4.0
1.10
4/32/9
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.70
23.2
7.0
1.11
3/11/9
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
3.97
18.3
6.3
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
4.97
17.4
7.5
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
SU
3.01
29.5
4.1
1.11
0/12/5
stable
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
3.09
39.3
10.7
—
0/1/0
—
Jake Woodford
unknown
MR
4.11
18.3
5.6
—
1/0/0
—
Brody Hopkins
unknown
MR
5.59
37.5
18.8
—
0/0/0
—
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.53
27.4
6.6
1.10
35/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.42
30.0
7.8
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.67
16.0
10.7
0.91
2/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
5.95
10.5
5.5
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.73
20.6
9.7
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.56
17.2
8.6
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.71
27.8
13.0
—
0/2/0
—
Bradley Hanner
unknown
MR
10.78
26.9
3.8
—
0/0/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
6.96
14.9
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.