Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 823411past slate · free
refreshed 18h 31m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citizens Bank Park
gametime 6:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
65°F
humidity 51%
wind
10 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
PHI
open · HP→CF 16°
wind impact on total
-0.26 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.26 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Shane DrohanLHP · MIL
Andrew PainterRHP · PHI
xERA 2026
3.83
4.50
xwOBA 2026
0.302
0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.023
0.016
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.90
1.73
FIP 25-26
3.76
4.80
kwERA 25-26
3.54
3.97
K% 25-26
23.7%
20.3%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
8.3%
IP 25+26 combined
120.3
120.7
ERA actual 2026
4.26
5.59
ERA (L4)
7.13
4.03
WHIP (L4)
1.81
1.30
K% (L4)
25.0%
22.9%
BB% (L4)
10.0%
7.3%
IP/gm (L4)
4.42
5.58
L4 window
08/23→09/12 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/02→09/19 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+1)
106 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.06 (+0.36)
4.30 (−0.26)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.14
-0.38
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.14
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.257
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.213
Sinker—-1.70xwOBA 0.375
Curveball—-2.50xwOBA 0.373
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.373
Changeup—-2.60xwOBA 0.353
home arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.38
4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.393
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.337
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.302
Changeup—+3.40xwOBA 0.170
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.411
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.216
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.926
Σ match
3.032
Σ FRV
+11.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.352
0.359
+4.0
2
2B
Brice Turang
0.344
0.355
+12.7
3
DH
William Contreras
0.333
0.332
-3.9
4
1B
Jake Bauers
0.376
0.393
-8.3
5
C
Gary Sánchez
0.339
0.368
-5.2
6
RF
Luis Lara
0.294
0.313
+0.7
7
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.314
0.326
+1.6
8
LF
Sal Frelick
0.279
0.287
-1.7
9
3B
Joey Ortiz
0.295
0.298
+11.9
home · PHI vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.893
Σ match
2.872
Σ FRV
-14.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.364
0.382
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.294
0.298
-9.5
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.380
0.370
-12.3
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.308
0.304
+10.5
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.330
0.322
-6.7
6
LF
Bryan De La Cruz
0.288
0.286
+0.6
7
3B
Bryson Stott
0.328
0.325
+4.9
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.317
0.311
+0.3
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.284
0.274
-1.9
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
Gary Sánchez
FRV-5.2
framing-2.3
blocking-1.4
throwing-0.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.3
framing-0.2
blocking-1.3
throwing+1.8
MIL · Shane Drohan
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs Baltimore Orioles · 1.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
105(+5)
102
Location+
102
72(-29)
93
Pitching+
101
79(-22)
91
botStf
51
56(+5)
52
botCmd
55
33(-22)
52
botOvr
54
39(-15)
52
SIERA
3.70
3.73(+0.03)
4.06
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-12. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 6.56
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PHI · Andrew Painter
Last outing 2026-09-19 vs NYM · 5.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
113(+11)
106
Location+
101
107(+6)
100
Pitching+
105
123(+18)
109
botStf
55
62(+7)
59
botCmd
53
62(+9)
55
botOvr
55
66(+11)
58
SIERA
4.56
2.56(-2.00)
4.30
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-19. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 1.91
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Max Lazar (4.45)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.85
28.6
6.3
0.97
30/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.69
26.5
8.3
0.99
6/23/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.19
30.3
11.1
1.23
3/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.16
21.9
7.9
0.98
0/22/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.76
23.7
8.2
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.96
21.6
10.2
2.46
6/11/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.69
19.1
8.2
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.88
26.8
14.5
1.29
0/6/5
stable
Lyon Richardson
unknown
LR
12.09
25.0
18.8
—
0/0/0
—
Kyle Harrison
SP
MR
4.07
27.5
7.2
4.92
0/1/0
stable
PHI
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jhoan Duran
CLOSER
CL
1.45
35.2
4.3
0.94
33/0/35
stable
Jonathan Bowlan
SETUP
MR
3.35
31.9
6.6
0.93
2/14/2
stable
José Alvarado
SETUP
SU
3.61
26.5
10.2
0.85
1/16/3
stable
Brooks Raley
SETUP
MR
3.96
23.2
9.1
0.89
1/16/5
stable
Tim Mayza
OPENER
MR
3.18
24.1
6.5
1.15
0/2/9
stable
Chase Shugart
MR
MR
4.82
25.9
9.0
1.13
0/0/10
stable
Tanner Banks
MR
MR
5.23
21.6
8.2
1.04
0/2/6
stable
Max Lazar
MR
MR
7.09
15.8
7.9
1.33
0/0/1
stable
Alex McFarlane
unknown
SU
2.85
23.5
7.4
—
0/5/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.