Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 823326past slate · free
refreshed 24h 55m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 12:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
62°F
humidity 54%
wind
10 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
clear
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.20 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.20 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Kyle LeahyRHP · STL
Paul SkenesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026
4.88
3.27
xwOBA 2026
0.337
0.280
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.010
0.018
xERA 2025
4.42
2.65
xwOBA 2025
0.325
0.255
Outs/TB 25-26
2.05
2.42
FIP 25-26
3.40
2.81
kwERA 25-26
3.63
2.70
K% 25-26
22.0%
28.7%
BB% 25-26
7.3%
6.2%
IP 25+26 combined
226.0
355.7
ERA actual 2026
3.65
3.91
ERA (L4)
9.26
4.70
WHIP (L4)
1.80
1.22
K% (L4)
25.0%
17.9%
BB% (L4)
7.1%
6.3%
IP/gm (L4)
2.92
5.75
L4 window
08/29→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
95 (+2)
100 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.42 (−0.40)
4.20 (+0.56)
Arsenal RV/100
0.09
0.35
away arsenal — STL
RV/100 0.09
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.424
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.301
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.312
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.308
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.330
home arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.35
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.283
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.229
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.254
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.314
Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.339
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.261
away · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.938
Σ match
2.609
Σ FRV
+38.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
JJ Wetherholt
0.348
0.316
+22.7
2
C
Iván Herrera
0.336
0.294
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.369
0.333
+6.5
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.341
0.297
-7.8
5
DH
Leo Bernal
0.355
0.308
+1.4
6
LF
Bryan Torres
0.288
0.271
+0.9
7
3B
Thomas Saggese
0.318
0.273
+0.9
8
CF
Nathan Church
0.286
0.252
+1.2
9
SS
Masyn Winn
0.297
0.263
+16.8
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.836
Σ match
3.083
Σ FRV
-2.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.352
0.385
+1.9
2
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.307
0.329
-3.0
3
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.332
0.365
+11.9
4
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.315
0.342
-2.6
5
3B
Nick Gonzales
0.325
0.363
-10.0
6
RF
Ronny Simon
0.311
0.328
+0.2
7
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.315
0.353
-3.7
8
LF
Jake Mangum
0.287
0.312
+0.7
9
C
Henry Davis
0.292
0.306
+2.6
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Iván Herrera
FRV-4.5
framing-0.9
blocking+0.3
throwing-4.0
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Henry Davis
FRV+2.6
framing-0.2
blocking+0.8
throwing+1.9
STL · Kyle Leahy
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs WSH · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
93
94(+1)
95
Location+
107
80(-26)
109
Pitching+
102
77(-25)
105
botStf
53
52(-0)
53
botCmd
54
47(-7)
60
botOvr
53
45(-8)
58
SIERA
3.82
6.95(+3.14)
3.42
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.66
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Paul Skenes
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs KC · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
105(+6)
100
Location+
107
102(-5)
107
Pitching+
105
100(-5)
103
botStf
52
53(+0)
51
botCmd
56
53(-3)
55
botOvr
56
55(-1)
55
SIERA
3.64
3.41(-0.23)
4.20
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.80
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.