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today's slate

LAA @ SEA

Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 823087past slate · free

refreshed 16h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

56°F

humidity 88%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

13%

overcast

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Grayson RodriguezRHP · LAA	Bryan WooRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	5.57	3.59
xwOBA 2026	0.357	0.293
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.006	-0.012
xERA 2025	—	3.07
xwOBA 2025	—	0.274
Outs/TB 25-26	1.58	2.24
FIP 25-26	4.84	3.37
kwERA 25-26	4.12	2.91
K% 25-26	19.7%	25.8%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	5.1%
IP 25+26 combined	93.7	354.3
ERA actual 2026	5.96	3.92
ERA (L4)	5.73	1.42
WHIP (L4)	1.59	0.99
K% (L4)	18.2%	24.3%
BB% (L4)	7.1%	5.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	6.33
L4 window	09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-1.08	0.83

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -1.08

4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.383
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.290
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.392
Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.354

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.83

4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.315
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.328
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.313
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.214
Changeup—+3.60xwOBA 0.203
Curveball—-4.60xwOBA 0.178

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.598

Σ match

2.514

Σ FRV

-7.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.313	0.316	-2.4
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.380	0.365	-3.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.314	0.303	+0.6
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.311	0.304	-6.0
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.293	0.275	-2.0
6	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.268	0.239	-0.5
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.285	0.270	+6.1
8	2B	Christian Moore	0.231	0.230	-2.0
9	CF	Bryce Teodosio	0.203	0.214	+2.6

home · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.864

Σ match

3.301

Σ FRV

-27.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.320	0.386	-10.2
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.351	0.389	-7.0
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.356	0.426	-0.4
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.310	0.344	-5.4
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.334	0.393	-0.7
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.312	0.356	+2.0
7	2B	Cole Young	0.312	0.363	-4.9
8	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.319	0.352	-0.3
9	3B	Leo Rivas	0.250	0.293	-0.8

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-2.0
framing-1.6
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.3

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-5.4
framing-4.2
blocking+3.0
throwing-4.2

LAA · Grayson Rodriguez

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs MIN · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-18. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-13: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 50 · botCmd 53 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.48

2026-09-07: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 83 · Pitching+ 82 · botStf 54 · botCmd 48 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 6.74

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Bryan Woo

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs COL · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-12: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 96 · botStf 53 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 4.51

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 102 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 108 · botStf 50 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 62 · SIERA 2.64

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Trevor Martin (5.04)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.37–0.47]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.96	22.4	13.3	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.76	29.1	8.1	0.56	0/10/0	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.88	20.7	7.6	1.61	3/8/21	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.91	26.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.54	24.3	11.3	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Trevor Martin	MR	MR	7.27	12.1	9.1	1.89	0/0/2	ramping up
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.52	23.2	12.2	—	0/5/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.99	20.3	2.7	—	0/3/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.32	24.2	7.7	—	0/1/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.33	37.1	10.0	0.93	28/1/29	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	3.91	23.5	8.0	0.82	1/21/5	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.99	18.8	6.2	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.58	24.9	12.1	0.89	12/8/18	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.62	23.3	8.4	0.94	1/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.68	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.58	19.3	8.1	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	26.0	8.7	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.84	22.7	4.0	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 LAA · 4 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

6 R

9H · 0HR · 6BB · 13K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.314 · K% 30.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA

4 R

7H · 1HR · 5BB · 5K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 13.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Denzer Guzman (3B) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-4 · 2 K

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

J.P. Crawford (3B) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4
Dominic Canzone (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4