Thursday · September 24, 2026·full·gamePk 822842past slate · free
refreshed 22h 55m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Globe Life Field
gametime 2:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
93°F
humidity 42%
wind
5 mph
cross LF to RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
TEX
retractable · HP→CF 7°
wind impact on total
neutralnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Zac ThorntonLHP · NYM
Kumar RockerRHP · TEX
xERA 2026
4.62
4.59
xwOBA 2026
0.329
0.328
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.016
0.005
xERA 2025
—
5.73
xwOBA 2025
—
0.364
Outs/TB 25-26
1.92
1.72
FIP 25-26
4.49
4.51
kwERA 25-26
3.82
3.98
K% 25-26
18.6%
20.8%
BB% 25-26
5.3%
9.0%
IP 25+26 combined
79.3
207.3
ERA actual 2026
3.40
4.47
ERA (L4)
4.70
3.18
WHIP (L4)
1.13
1.47
K% (L4)
20.0%
28.9%
BB% (L4)
3.2%
14.5%
IP/gm (L4)
5.75
4.25
L4 window
08/30→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/24→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+4)
93 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.57 (+0.24)
4.34 (−0.05)
Arsenal RV/100
0.00
-0.15
away arsenal — NYM
RV/100 0.00
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.355
4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.294
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.281
Slider—-3.40xwOBA 0.402
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.369
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.322
Changeup—-4.90xwOBA 0.302
home arsenal — TEX
RV/100 -0.15
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.226
Sinker—-0.80xwOBA 0.376
Cutter—-1.10xwOBA 0.435
4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.491
away · NYM vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.955
Σ match
3.173
Σ FRV
+9.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Francisco Lindor
0.332
0.372
-0.0
2
DH
Juan Soto
0.413
0.436
-5.1
3
3B
Bo Bichette
0.328
0.346
-0.9
4
RF
Carson Benge
0.339
0.382
+7.1
5
1B
Brett Baty
0.320
0.352
+1.1
6
2B
Marcus Semien
0.303
0.320
-8.4
7
CF
A.J. Ewing
0.318
0.335
+5.6
8
C
Luis Torrens
0.292
0.313
+8.4
9
LF
Nick Morabito
0.310
0.317
+1.7
home · TEX vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.834
Σ match
3.025
Σ FRV
+10.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Justin Foscue
0.327
0.355
+2.3
2
SS
Corey Seager
0.346
0.375
-0.8
3
3B
Josh Jung
0.343
0.380
-4.0
4
1B
Jake Burger
0.317
0.340
+4.4
5
RF
Brandon Nimmo
0.342
0.366
-6.5
6
LF
Wyatt Langford
0.322
0.329
+4.8
7
CF
Ezequiel Duran
0.303
0.323
+12.3
8
C
Elias Díaz
0.266
0.273
+1.4
9
DH
Danny Jansen
0.268
0.284
-3.4
defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)
Luis Torrens
FRV+8.4
framing+5.1
blocking+1.1
throwing+2.2
defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)
Elias Díaz
FRV+1.4
framing+0.5
blocking+0.3
throwing+0.6
NYM · Zac Thornton
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs PHI · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
103(+5)
102
Location+
97
97(+0)
102
Pitching+
94
97(+3)
101
botStf
48
50(+2)
50
botCmd
52
46(-6)
53
botOvr
53
52(-1)
55
SIERA
4.33
4.90(+0.57)
4.57
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.44
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
TEX · Kumar Rocker
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs TOR · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
98(+7)
93
Location+
96
94(-2)
97
Pitching+
90
92(+3)
88
botStf
49
47(-2)
48
botCmd
50
50(-0)
52
botOvr
48
49(+0)
50
SIERA
4.39
4.73(+0.34)
4.34
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.95
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.