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today's slate

LAA @ ATH

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824951past slate · free

refreshed 41h 47m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

83°F

humidity 24%

wind

2 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Walbert UreñaRHP · LAA	Jeffrey SpringsLHP · ATH
xERA 2026	3.30	4.82
xwOBA 2026	0.281	0.335
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.031
xERA 2025	—	4.30
xwOBA 2025	—	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	2.79	1.70
FIP 25-26	3.52	5.21
kwERA 25-26	3.95	4.15
K% 25-26	23.1%	18.7%
BB% 25-26	11.1%	8.3%
IP 25+26 combined	144.3	309.3
ERA actual 2026	2.74	6.18
ERA (L4)	1.93	6.75
WHIP (L4)	0.86	1.30
K% (L4)	26.7%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	2.9%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	7.00	5.00
L4 window	08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/30→09/17 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.71	-1.27

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.71

Changeup—+2.00xwOBA 0.217
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.348
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.315
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.237

home arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -1.27

4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.263
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.383
Sweeper—-1.80xwOBA 0.399
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.256

away · LAA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.540

Σ match

2.763

Σ FRV

-0.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.312	0.335	-1.8
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.380	0.397	-3.9
3	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.309	0.337	-5.8
4	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.271	0.275	-0.0
5	RF	Wade Meckler	0.311	0.341	+1.4
6	LF	Jose Siri	0.298	0.344	+0.5
7	2B	Christian Moore	0.228	0.238	-1.7
8	CF	Bryce Teodosio	0.194	0.237	+2.5
9	C	Tyler Heineman	0.237	0.259	+8.3

home · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.783

Σ match

2.493

Σ FRV

-24.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.319	0.275	+3.2
2	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.327	0.277	-10.9
3	DH	Shea Langeliers	0.359	0.309	-3.6
4	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.299	0.272	-2.5
5	3B	Zack Gelof	0.322	0.293	-0.1
6	2B	Donovan Walton	0.327	0.305	-7.0
7	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.305	0.272	-7.4
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.244	0.228	+3.1
9	C	Brian Serven	0.281	0.262	+0.9

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Heineman

FRV+8.3
framing+5.9
blocking-0.0
throwing+2.4

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Serven

FRV+0.9
framing-0.3
blocking+1.5
throwing-0.3

LAA · Walbert Ureña

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs MIN · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-12: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 54 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 3.33

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 110 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 53 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.39

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jeffrey Springs

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs TB · 3.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 104 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 48 · botCmd 53 · botOvr 48 · SIERA 6.72

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 114 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 48 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 3.50

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.47]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Sam Bachman (4.31)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.97	22.4	13.3	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.70	28.6	7.1	0.56	0/10/0	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.88	20.7	7.6	1.61	3/8/21	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.92	26.5	10.9	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.57	24.8	11.3	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.55	29.5	14.8	—	5/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.65	22.8	12.7	—	0/5/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	4.01	20.5	2.7	—	0/3/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.33	24.2	7.7	—	0/1/0	—

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.54	29.5	12.0	1.38	0/12/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.12	28.2	13.4	0.93	16/13/13	stable
Drew Rom	MR	MR	3.09	23.6	9.7	1.13	0/3/1	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	3.50	17.1	9.5	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	LR	4.32	25.3	12.3	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.59	27.6	11.5	1.08	6/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.59	14.3	9.7	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	8.99	18.2	15.2	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.95	22.2	7.6	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 LAA · 7 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

3 R

8H · 2HR · 3BB · 9K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.438 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

ATH

7 R

13H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.425 · SLGe 0.556 · K% 12.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 4.7 IP · 5 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Mike Trout (DH) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Denzer Guzman (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Christian Moore (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Henry Bolte (LF) · 4-5 | 2 2B, RBI, 2 R4 H · 6 TB
Donovan Walton (2B) · 1-2 | HR, BB, 3 RBIHR