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today's slate

CIN @ ATL

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824868past slate · free

refreshed 43h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Truist Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 71%

wind

12 mph

in from CF

precip

partly cloudy

park

ATL

open · HP→CF 63°

wind impact on total

-0.35 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.35 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew AbbottLHP · CIN	Chris SaleLHP · ATL
xERA 2026	5.02	3.06
xwOBA 2026	0.341	0.271
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.006	-0.012
xERA 2025	3.56	2.84
xwOBA 2025	0.294	0.264
Outs/TB 25-26	1.96	2.56
FIP 25-26	4.26	2.45
kwERA 25-26	4.03	2.32
K% 25-26	19.9%	31.2%
BB% 25-26	8.4%	5.5%
IP 25+26 combined	325.3	282.7
ERA actual 2026	4.70	2.18
ERA (L4)	11.20	2.25
WHIP (L4)	2.20	0.89
K% (L4)	15.5%	27.3%
BB% (L4)	9.9%	2.7%
IP/gm (L4)	3.42	7.00
L4 window	08/29→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/21→09/11 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	115 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.10 (+0.22)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.43	1.35

away arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.43

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.402
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.232
Changeup—+0.00xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.331
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.384

home arsenal — ATL

RV/100 1.35

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.301
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.222
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.324
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.292

away · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.530

Σ match

2.433

Σ FRV

+1.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Juan Brito	0.284	0.254	-1.6
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.378	0.355	+4.8
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.348	0.294	-3.7
4	CF	Dane Myers	0.311	0.264	-0.8
5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	0.300	0.264	-5.9
6	2B	Matt McLain	0.297	0.257	+3.9
7	LF	Oswaldo Cabrera	0.121	0.225	-0.7
8	C	Will Banfield	0.198	0.259	-0.2
9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0.293	0.263	+5.2

home · ATL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.722

Σ match

2.938

Σ FRV

+18.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Drake Baldwin	0.367	0.411	-0.5
2	LF	Mauricio Dubón	0.304	0.313	+3.5
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.351	0.368	+11.5
4	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.278	0.302	-2.9
5	CF	Michael Harris II	0.341	0.369	+10.9
6	3B	Austin Riley	0.298	0.321	-0.6
7	DH	Sean Murphy	0.259	0.292	-1.2
8	RF	Brewer Hicklen	0.312	0.319	-0.3
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.212	0.243	-2.2

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Banfield

FRV-0.2
framing+0.0
blocking-0.1
throwing-0.2

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.5
framing+2.4
blocking+0.3
throwing-3.2

CIN · Andrew Abbott

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs LAD · 4.2 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	94	88(-6)	—
Location+	100	86(-14)	—
Pitching+	94	76(-18)	—
botStf	51	52(+2)	—
botCmd	54	45(-8)	—
botOvr	51	45(-7)	—
SIERA	5.17	7.21(+2.04)	—

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-16: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 86 · Pitching+ 76 · botStf 52 · botCmd 45 · botOvr 45 · SIERA 7.21

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 116 · Pitching+ 107 · botStf 51 · botCmd 63 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 2.24

Latest botERA 5.67

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATL · Chris Sale

Last outing 2026-09-11 vs PHI · 7.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	118	108(-11)	115
Location+	109	104(-6)	103
Pitching+	122	113(-9)	117
botStf	55	52(-3)	56
botCmd	60	54(-6)	55
botOvr	60	54(-6)	57
SIERA	2.88	3.76(+0.87)	3.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-27 → 2026-09-11. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.04

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.34–0.55]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Connor Phillips (5.40)

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.36R / inningband [0.29–0.43]

0.085 R/PA · 0.120 R/out · worst: AJ Smith-Shawver (4.67)

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.24	25.9	6.5	0.91	24/0/15	stable
Graham Ashcraft	SETUP	MR	3.59	27.3	15.8	1.04	1/11/5	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.76	23.9	12.9	0.95	2/22/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.87	19.2	9.4	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Connor Phillips	SETUP	MR	5.84	21.1	21.1	1.11	1/5/6	stable
Luis Mey	MR	MR	3.52	30.9	13.2	1.24	0/4/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	SU	3.85	24.1	7.5	1.00	1/10/6	stable
Zach McCambley	MR	MR	4.54	21.3	12.8	1.08	0/0/3	ramping down
Carson Spiers	unknown	LR	10.34	29.4	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.26	26.3	7.3	1.04	34/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.14	29.7	6.6	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.40	31.6	7.2	1.20	3/18/4	ramping down
Robert Suarez	SETUP	SU	2.44	21.5	5.0	1.03	4/12/6	stable
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.65	27.6	7.7	1.18	2/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.63	20.4	6.9	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.97	22.5	8.7	1.87	1/2/4	ramping up
Ray Kerr	unknown	LR	3.94	20.0	1.8	—	0/2/0	—
AJ Smith-Shawver	unknown	MR	5.52	18.3	12.2	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 CIN · 3 ATL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CIN

2 R

5H · 1HR · 1BB · 15K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.194 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 41.7

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

ATL

3 R

7H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 21.1

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 15 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Juan Brito (RF) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Matt McLain (2B) · 2-4 | 3B, 2 K, R4 TB

tough nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Sal Stewart (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Dane Myers (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Matt Olson (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, RBIHR
Austin Riley (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Drake Baldwin (C) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Michael Harris II (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Sean Murphy (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K