Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824785past slate · free
refreshed 47h 24m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
59°F
humidity 92%
wind
8 mph
in from CF
precip
58%
light drizzle
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
wind impact on total
-0.27 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.27 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Max ScherzerRHP · TOR
Chris BassittRHP · BAL
xERA 2026
4.35
4.95
xwOBA 2026
0.320
0.339
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.011
0.007
xERA 2025
4.64
4.16
xwOBA 2025
0.332
0.316
Outs/TB 25-26
1.66
1.83
FIP 25-26
5.21
4.14
kwERA 25-26
3.93
3.87
K% 25-26
20.2%
20.3%
BB% 25-26
8.0%
7.6%
IP 25+26 combined
157.7
267.3
ERA actual 2026
6.07
4.64
ERA (L4)
3.97
4.30
WHIP (L4)
0.97
1.52
K% (L4)
20.0%
20.4%
BB% (L4)
6.7%
10.7%
IP/gm (L4)
5.67
5.75
L4 window
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
90 (−3)
100 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.31 (+0.74)
4.44 (−0.50)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.32
-0.53
away arsenal — TOR
RV/100 -0.32
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.331
Slider—-4.10xwOBA 0.353
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.261
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.286
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.371
home arsenal — BAL
RV/100 -0.53
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.362
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.288
Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.361
4-Seam Fastball—-3.20xwOBA 0.390
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.268
Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.376
Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.218
away · TOR vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.678
Σ match
2.936
Σ FRV
+33.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Nathan Lukes
0.289
0.297
+8.2
2
1B
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
0.335
0.372
+5.0
3
3B
Kazuma Okamoto
0.328
0.343
-3.4
4
DH
George Springer
0.304
0.349
-0.3
5
LF
Josh Smith
0.281
0.318
-2.4
6
SS
Andrés Giménez
0.273
0.310
+15.3
7
C
Brandon Valenzuela
0.312
0.325
+11.9
8
CF
Myles Straw
0.296
0.338
+3.2
9
2B
Ernie Clement
0.260
0.285
-3.8
home · BAL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.810
Σ match
2.913
Σ FRV
+2.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Dylan Beavers
0.293
0.307
-8.4
2
1B
Pete Alonso
0.397
0.417
-1.2
3
SS
Gunnar Henderson
0.323
0.319
+1.7
4
DH
Coby Mayo
0.336
0.354
-1.7
5
3B
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
0.334
0.344
+1.8
6
CF
Colton Cowser
0.314
0.338
+8.5
7
2B
Jeremiah Jackson
0.283
0.298
-1.7
8
RF
Leody Taveras
0.270
0.284
-1.9
9
C
Carlos Narváez
0.260
0.252
+5.2
defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)
Brandon Valenzuela
FRV+11.9
framing+7.6
blocking-0.6
throwing+5.1
defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)
Carlos Narváez
FRV+5.2
framing+2.1
blocking+3.3
throwing-0.2
TOR · Max Scherzer
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs DET · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
89(-5)
90
Location+
104
108(+3)
106
Pitching+
98
101(+3)
96
botStf
49
47(-2)
46
botCmd
54
57(+3)
57
botOvr
51
52(+0)
52
SIERA
5.57
6.89(+1.32)
6.31
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.42
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BAL · Chris Bassitt
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs NYM · 6.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
92(-5)
100
Location+
100
112(+13)
104
Pitching+
96
106(+10)
102
botStf
46
47(+1)
48
botCmd
54
55(+2)
55
botOvr
53
52(-0)
53
SIERA
4.94
3.48(-1.46)
4.44
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.36
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.28)
TOR
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Louis Varland
CLOSER
CL
1.86
31.2
7.6
1.11
34/5/31
stable
Paul Sewald
CLOSER
MR
5.31
25.0
6.1
0.91
24/3/33
stable
Tyler Rogers
SETUP
SU
3.38
13.4
7.6
0.97
4/32/6
stable
Mason Fluharty
OPENER
MR
3.67
25.1
10.8
0.76
1/19/5
stable
Braydon Fisher
OPENER
MR
4.34
23.9
13.8
1.05
1/13/7
stable
Spencer Miles
SWING
SU
2.65
23.9
6.3
2.37
2/4/6
ramping up
Chad Dallas
MR
LR
4.55
24.6
12.3
2.33
0/2/0
insufficient data
Brendon Little
MOP_UP
MR
5.10
33.9
19.4
0.95
0/3/2
ramping up
Brendan Cellucci
unknown
MR
1.22
42.1
10.5
—
0/0/0
—
José Rodríguez
unknown
MR
1.46
23.1
0.0
—
0/1/0
—
BAL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Grant Wolfram
SETUP
MR
2.69
26.9
7.2
0.80
1/13/3
stable
Yennier Cano
SETUP
SU
2.75
21.8
5.9
0.74
3/13/6
stable
Anthony Nunez
SETUP
MR
3.49
26.9
10.6
1.12
3/7/7
stable
Andrew Kittredge
SETUP
CL
3.79
18.6
5.2
0.87
10/9/11
stable
Rico Garcia
SETUP
CL
3.90
26.0
8.4
0.93
10/18/16
stable
Josh Walker
MR
MR
3.27
23.1
8.5
1.20
1/4/3
ramping down
Alex Hoppe
MR
MR
3.38
24.2
10.2
1.14
1/5/13
stable
Cam Sanders
MR
MR
3.48
28.9
15.6
1.00
3/1/5
stable
Félix Bautista
unknown
MR
1.59
40.0
20.0
—
0/0/0
—
Luis De León
unknown
LR
4.13
15.6
6.2
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.