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today's slate

TOR @ BAL

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824784past slate · free

refreshed 42h 51m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

60°F

humidity 77%

wind

7 mph

in from CF

precip

overcast

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

-0.24 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.24 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

opener / bulk pattern

TOR: CJ Van Eyk opens → bulk: Spencer Miles· predicted bulk based on 1/3 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	CJ Van EykRHP · opener · TOR	Spencer MilesRHP · bulk · TOR	Trey GibsonRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	5.92	2.97	6.94
xwOBA 2026	0.366	0.267	0.391
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.029	-0.013	-0.006
xERA 2025	—	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.25	2.73	1.55
FIP 25-26	6.09	2.65	6.39
kwERA 25-26	5.74	3.29	5.03
K% 25-26	2.9%	23.9%	18.6%
BB% 25-26	5.7%	6.3%	15.5%
IP 25+26 combined	6.7	94.7	33.0
ERA actual 2026	4.05	2.57	7.36
ERA (L4)	13.50	0.00	10.69
WHIP (L4)	3.75	1.00	2.31
K% (L4)	0.0%	31.2%	28.7%
BB% (L4)	11.1%	6.2%	19.5%
IP/gm (L4)	0.67	2.00	4.00
L4 window	07/24→08/28 (2 outs) · 1/2 dates verified	08/26→09/20 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified	06/13→06/30 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	98 (−3)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.00 (−0.41)	—
Arsenal RV/100	-10.40	1.55	-1.12

away arsenal · BULK Spencer Miles — TOR

RV/100 1.55

Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.296
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.266
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.230
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.211

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -1.12

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.346
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.331
4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.322
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.457
Curveball—-5.20xwOBA 0.563

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.569

Σ match

3.189

Σ FRV

+8.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.289	0.359	+8.2
2	2B	Josh Smith	0.281	0.363	-2.4
3	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.310	0.392	+9.1
4	DH	Kazuma Okamoto	0.328	0.389	-3.4
5	1B	Sean Keys	0.260	0.322	+0.0
6	LF	Davis Schneider	0.274	0.343	-3.4
7	3B	Charles McAdoo	0.271	0.330	+0.9
8	CF	Myles Straw	0.296	0.372	+3.2
9	SS	Ernie Clement	0.260	0.319	-3.7

home · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.826

Σ match

2.472

Σ FRV

-2.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Dylan Beavers	0.293	0.259	-8.4
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.397	0.332	-1.2
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.323	0.281	+1.7
4	3B	Coby Mayo	0.336	0.294	-1.7
5	DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.334	0.273	+1.8
6	CF	Colton Cowser	0.314	0.279	+8.5
7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0.283	0.221	-1.7
8	LF	Christian Franklin	0.298	0.278	-0.1
9	C	Yohel Pozo	0.248	0.256	-1.3

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.1
framing+6.9
blocking+3.6
throwing-1.4

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Yohel Pozo

FRV-1.3
framing-1.7
blocking+0.3
throwing+0.1

TOR · Spencer Miles

Last outing 2026-09-20 vs TEX · 3.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	100	103(+2)	98
Location+	109	121(+11)	121
Pitching+	107	115(+8)	115
botStf	52	55(+2)	52
botCmd	58	63(+6)	64
botOvr	56	59(+3)	61
SIERA	3.41	1.83(-1.58)	3.00

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-20. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 3.18

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-20; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Trey Gibson

Last outing 2026-06-30 vs CWS · 2.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-19 → 2026-06-30. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-06-24: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 105 · botStf 50 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 3.37

2026-06-19: Stuff+ 93 · Location+ 93 · Pitching+ 89 · botStf 54 · botCmd 43 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 4.07

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-06-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)10 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.27–0.59]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Chase Lee (7.35)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.42]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Cam Sanders (3.81)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.86	31.2	7.6	1.11	34/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.31	25.0	6.1	0.91	24/3/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.38	13.4	7.6	0.97	4/32/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.66	25.1	10.8	0.76	1/19/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.34	23.9	13.8	1.05	1/13/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.65	23.9	6.3	2.37	2/4/6	ramping up
Chad Dallas	MR	LR	4.55	24.6	12.3	2.33	0/2/0	insufficient data
CJ Van Eyk	MR	MR	6.09	2.9	5.7	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Chase Lee	MR	MR	10.47	5.4	21.6	1.11	1/0/0	insufficient data
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.10	33.9	19.4	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Brendan Cellucci	unknown	MR	1.22	42.1	10.5	—	0/0/0	—

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.68	26.9	7.2	0.80	1/13/3	stable
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.75	21.8	5.9	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Anthony Nunez	SETUP	MR	3.49	26.8	10.6	1.12	3/7/7	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.79	18.6	5.2	0.87	10/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	3.89	26.0	8.4	0.93	10/18/16	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.27	23.1	8.5	1.20	1/4/3	ramping down
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	3.38	24.2	10.2	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.48	28.9	15.6	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Félix Bautista	unknown	MR	1.59	40.0	20.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 TOR · 4 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

2 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.290 · K% 25.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

BAL

4 R

4H · 1HR · 1BB · 5K · 4LOB

OBPe 0.207 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 17.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 2.3 IP · 4 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Davis Schneider (LF) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Josh Smith (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kazuma Okamoto (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (DH) · 2-3 | HR, 3 RBI, 2 RHR

tough nights

Dylan Beavers (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K