Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824710past slate · free
refreshed 43h 28m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Fenway Park
gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
56°F
humidity 68%
wind
8 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
overcast
park
BOS
open · HP→CF 46°
wind impact on total
-0.19 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Foster GriffinLHP · CLE
Sonny GrayRHP · BOS
xERA 2026
4.35
3.84
xwOBA 2026
0.320
0.302
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.009
-0.005
xERA 2025
—
3.88
xwOBA 2025
—
0.306
Outs/TB 25-26
1.95
1.97
FIP 25-26
4.06
3.44
kwERA 25-26
3.56
3.16
K% 25-26
21.8%
24.5%
BB% 25-26
6.5%
5.9%
IP 25+26 combined
166.7
343.7
ERA actual 2026
3.67
2.82
ERA (L4)
7.79
2.96
WHIP (L4)
1.79
1.15
K% (L4)
19.5%
23.5%
BB% (L4)
8.5%
9.2%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
6.08
L4 window
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/26→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
95 (−3)
101 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.76 (−0.25)
4.29 (+0.37)
Arsenal RV/100
0.10
0.59
away arsenal — CLE
RV/100 0.10
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.337
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.317
Sweeper—-0.70xwOBA 0.356
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.263
Sinker—+1.50xwOBA 0.309
Curveball—-3.70xwOBA 0.366
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.215
home arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.59
Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.277
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.187
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.367
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.386
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.372
away · CLE vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.850
Σ match
2.861
Σ FRV
+15.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Steven Kwan
0.327
0.330
+7.1
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.327
0.326
+2.1
3
DH
Chase DeLauter
0.348
0.339
+1.8
4
RF
Jo Adell
0.324
0.330
-9.4
5
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.302
0.316
-1.9
6
1B
Nathaniel Lowe
0.336
0.340
-3.0
7
C
Patrick Bailey
0.302
0.301
+6.4
8
CF
Petey Halpin
0.289
0.287
+1.8
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.295
0.293
+10.7
home · BOS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.775
Σ match
2.859
Σ FRV
+27.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.341
0.365
-0.0
2
1B
Nick Sogard
0.309
0.323
+3.4
3
DH
Jahmai Jones
0.326
0.333
-1.6
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.349
0.364
+4.0
5
C
Adley Rutschman
0.328
0.346
+11.2
6
CF
Ceddanne Rafaela
0.282
0.278
+15.0
7
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.295
0.291
+5.4
8
SS
Trevor Story
0.254
0.260
-0.7
9
2B
Andruw Monasterio
0.291
0.298
-9.5
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Patrick Bailey
FRV+6.4
framing+4.5
blocking-1.7
throwing+3.6
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.2
framing+6.3
blocking+1.0
throwing+3.9
CLE · Foster Griffin
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs CWS · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
97(+0)
95
Location+
101
99(-2)
94
Pitching+
97
101(+4)
94
botStf
47
51(+4)
49
botCmd
53
52(-0)
48
botOvr
51
49(-2)
47
SIERA
4.02
3.65(-0.36)
3.76
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.94
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BOS · Sonny Gray
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs TEX · 6.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
97(-4)
101
Location+
98
114(+16)
105
Pitching+
102
114(+12)
110
botStf
53
51(-1)
53
botCmd
55
65(+10)
59
botOvr
56
62(+6)
58
SIERA
3.92
4.56(+0.64)
4.29
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.68
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.