Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824625past slate · free
refreshed 42h 48m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
62°F
humidity 80%
wind
11 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.38 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.38 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Ryan GustoRHP · MIA
Kevin GausmanRHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.95
4.01
xwOBA 2026
0.339
0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.001
0.007
xERA 2025
4.61
3.74
xwOBA 2025
0.331
0.301
Outs/TB 25-26
1.65
2.06
FIP 25-26
4.46
3.57
kwERA 25-26
3.88
3.24
K% 25-26
20.2%
24.4%
BB% 25-26
7.5%
6.4%
IP 25+26 combined
184.3
365.0
ERA actual 2026
4.14
4.55
ERA (L4)
4.66
5.82
WHIP (L4)
1.81
1.34
K% (L4)
18.0%
29.5%
BB% (L4)
9.0%
5.3%
IP/gm (L4)
4.83
5.42
L4 window
08/31→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
96 (−1)
97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.20 (+1.11)
2.71 (−1.25)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.42
0.11
away arsenal — MIA
RV/100 -0.42
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.332
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.359
Sweeper—-0.50xwOBA 0.341
Cutter—+1.60xwOBA 0.328
Sinker—-2.30xwOBA 0.407
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.329
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.302
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.11
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.340
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.246
Slider—-3.00xwOBA 0.434
away · MIA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.787
Σ match
2.854
Σ FRV
+20.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Otto Lopez
0.327
0.345
+10.5
2
1B
Kyle Stowers
0.326
0.306
-3.6
3
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.347
0.356
-0.1
4
RF
Griffin Conine
0.363
0.379
-1.0
5
2B
Javier Sanoja
0.294
0.297
+2.7
6
CF
Jakob Marsee
0.313
0.311
+5.0
7
DH
Agustín Ramírez
0.287
0.282
-4.8
8
3B
Graham Pauley
0.246
0.275
+1.5
9
C
Joe Mack
0.284
0.303
+10.1
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.899
Σ match
3.149
Σ FRV
+60.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.376
0.402
+26.9
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.338
0.364
+7.9
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.332
0.364
+2.4
4
DH
Michael Conforto
0.336
0.369
-1.8
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.315
0.350
+5.9
6
2B
Nico Hoerner
0.322
0.346
+8.7
7
3B
Pedro Ramírez
0.284
0.306
+0.8
8
SS
Dansby Swanson
0.305
0.335
+11.5
9
C
Miguel Amaya
0.291
0.314
-1.5
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Joe Mack
FRV+10.1
framing+4.7
blocking+0.2
throwing+5.2
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Miguel Amaya
FRV-1.5
framing+0.1
blocking-0.7
throwing-0.4
MIA · Ryan Gusto
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs AZ · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
95(-2)
96
Location+
103
118(+15)
104
Pitching+
99
113(+14)
99
botStf
51
49(-2)
50
botCmd
58
63(+6)
59
botOvr
56
60(+4)
56
SIERA
4.09
4.48(+0.39)
5.20
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.99
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Kevin Gausman
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs ATL · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
99(+2)
97
Location+
107
120(+13)
107
Pitching+
104
111(+7)
100
botStf
52
51(-0)
51
botCmd
59
64(+4)
61
botOvr
59
63(+4)
59
SIERA
3.96
2.01(-1.95)
2.71
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.49
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Colin Rea (4.30)
MIA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Calvin Faucher
SETUP
CL
2.96
24.9
12.6
0.98
3/17/7
stable
Michael Petersen
SETUP
SU
3.09
30.4
10.8
1.06
1/25/4
stable
Dax Fulton
BULK
MR
3.44
23.6
13.6
2.50
0/0/3
ramping down
Cade Gibson
MR
MR
4.14
19.0
9.7
1.28
0/4/7
stable
Victor Vodnik
MR
MR
4.15
16.3
12.5
1.08
4/6/12
stable
Josh Ekness
MR
MR
4.63
18.4
15.2
0.89
1/2/2
stable
Tyler Zuber
MR
SU
5.23
24.0
6.3
0.87
1/10/5
stable
Jack Ralston
unknown
MR
5.55
24.2
12.9
—
0/3/0
—
Bradley Blalock
unknown
LR
6.84
25.7
8.6
—
0/0/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
3.96
25.2
8.4
0.88
3/2/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.82
31.2
13.3
1.15
6/14/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
MR
4.10
25.5
8.7
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.78
28.5
8.7
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.00
16.3
7.0
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
3.95
21.3
10.8
1.12
3/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.64
18.9
7.1
4.67
2/1/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.84
17.3
8.1
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.34
20.3
10.3
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.