Baseball Daily

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today's slate

AZ @ COL

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824301past slate · free

refreshed 43h 27m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

62°F

humidity 82%

wind

8 mph

out to CF

precip

18%

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.21 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.21 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Merrill KellyRHP · AZ	Mason AdamsRHP · COL
xERA 2026	6.47	5.84
xwOBA 2026	0.380	0.364
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.026	0.042
xERA 2025	4.16	—
xwOBA 2025	0.316	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.88	1.41
FIP 25-26	4.51	6.18
kwERA 25-26	4.03	4.09
K% 25-26	19.5%	22.8%
BB% 25-26	8.1%	11.9%
IP 25+26 combined	340.7	23.0
ERA actual 2026	5.00	5.09
ERA (L4)	4.35	5.68
WHIP (L4)	1.40	1.68
K% (L4)	21.7%	21.7%
BB% (L4)	8.7%	10.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	4.75
L4 window	08/24→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.74	-1.28

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.74

Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.351
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.465
Cutter—-2.00xwOBA 0.410
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.305
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.300
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.384

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.28

4-Seam Fastball—-2.70xwOBA 0.382
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.394
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.188
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.313

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.920

Σ match

3.239

Σ FRV

+26.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.341	0.399	+1.8
2	2B	Ketel Marte	0.343	0.400	+4.8
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.362	0.411	+8.1
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.328	0.361	+12.4
5	1B	Pavin Smith	0.274	0.308	+0.5
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.296	0.335	+2.5
7	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.345	0.365	+5.0
8	DH	Jesús Sánchez	0.321	0.327	-8.9
9	CF	Tim Tawa	0.310	0.334	-0.2

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.719

Σ match

3.303

Σ FRV

+0.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jake McCarthy	0.324	0.391	-0.7
2	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.311	0.387	+0.3
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.319	0.395	-2.3
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.334	0.406	+4.9
5	3B	Kyle Karros	0.338	0.417	+0.4
6	2B	Adael Amador	0.263	0.324	+0.4
7	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.277	0.337	+0.1
8	LF	Zac Veen	0.274	0.314	-3.8
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.279	0.332	+1.0

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.1
framing+5.4
blocking+1.2
throwing+1.6

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-2.3
framing-0.1
blocking-0.6
throwing-1.6

AZ · Merrill Kelly

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs MIA · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 92 · Pitching+ 92 · botStf 48 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 5.96

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 119 · Pitching+ 116 · botStf 46 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 4.45

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Mason Adams

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs SD · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 82 · Pitching+ 77 · botStf 48 · botCmd 42 · botOvr 41 · SIERA 4.54

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 94 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 48 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 2.34

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Zac Gallen (4.66)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.49R / inningband [0.44–0.53]

0.114 R/PA · 0.162 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.72)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.34	31.3	6.0	0.83	5/17/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.72	28.6	9.0	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.79	19.0	4.4	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.61	25.2	6.0	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.67	16.0	5.1	1.00	0/14/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	4.94	20.7	9.9	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.30	33.3	13.3	—	0/1/0	—
Ryne Nelson	SP	MR	5.34	17.5	6.6	5.56	0/0/0	ramping up
Zac Gallen	SP	LR	5.35	13.6	7.5	5.16	0/0/0	ramping up

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.85	25.2	12.6	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.23	21.3	13.2	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.25	20.4	12.8	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.56	18.4	5.7	0.86	2/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.35	19.2	11.2	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.56	14.3	8.6	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.02	23.3	15.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.31	22.8	7.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 AZ · 3 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

5 R

8H · 1HR · 0BB · 10K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.382 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

COL

3 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 13.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Gabriel Moreno (C) · 3-4 | RBI, R, CS3 H
Tim Tawa (LF) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Lars Nootbaar (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Geraldo Perdomo (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Jesús Sánchez (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

big nights

Ezequiel Tovar (SS) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, 2 RHR

tough nights

Cole Carrigg (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
TJ Rumfield (1B) · 0-40-for-4