Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824223past slate · free
refreshed 48h 19m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Comerica Park
gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
66°F
humidity 58%
wind
17 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
5%
overcast
park
DET
open · HP→CF 150°
wind impact on total
-0.13 R/Gminor cross
Minor wind cross: -0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_
opener / bulk pattern
WSH: Richard Lovelady opens → bulk: no confident pattern
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Richard LoveladyLHP · WSH
Framber ValdezLHP · DET
xERA 2026
5.40
4.42
xwOBA 2026
0.352
0.322
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.021
-0.005
xERA 2025
5.81
3.77
xwOBA 2025
0.366
0.302
Outs/TB 25-26
1.57
2.16
FIP 25-26
5.56
3.75
kwERA 25-26
4.57
3.96
K% 25-26
19.4%
20.6%
BB% 25-26
12.5%
8.6%
IP 25+26 combined
44.3
360.7
ERA actual 2026
3.86
4.06
ERA (L4)
3.38
2.25
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.08
K% (L4)
16.7%
18.6%
BB% (L4)
12.5%
8.2%
IP/gm (L4)
1.33
6.00
L4 window
05/17→06/08 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
93 (−4)
104 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.56 (+0.13)
4.12 (−0.37)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.15
0.11
away arsenal · BULK Richard Lovelady — WSH
RV/100 -1.15
Sweeper—-1.00xwOBA 0.293
Sinker—-1.20xwOBA 0.428
4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.351
home arsenal — DET
RV/100 0.11
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.381
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.257
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.319
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.147
4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.256
away · WSH vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.932
Σ match
2.906
Σ FRV
-8.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
James Wood
0.406
0.395
-8.0
2
DH
Andrés Chaparro
0.343
0.362
-3.0
3
3B
Brady House
0.334
0.328
-3.5
4
2B
CJ Abrams
0.331
0.339
-11.5
5
LF
Dylan Crews
0.318
0.314
+3.7
6
1B
Yohandy Morales
0.331
0.323
-0.2
7
C
Harry Ford
0.288
0.278
-2.2
8
CF
Jacob Young
0.315
0.307
+8.6
9
SS
Nasim Nuñez
0.266
0.261
+7.3
home · DET vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.939
Σ match
3.381
Σ FRV
+5.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Kevin McGonigle
0.357
0.385
-1.4
2
DH
Hao-Yu Lee
0.304
0.356
-9.2
3
RF
Ben Malgeri
0.315
0.355
+0.6
4
LF
Riley Greene
0.373
0.431
-6.0
5
C
Dillon Dingler
0.340
0.400
+13.9
6
CF
Max Clark
0.326
0.374
+3.8
7
1B
Spencer Torkelson
0.315
0.372
-6.4
8
SS
John Peck
0.326
0.364
-0.9
9
2B
Zach McKinstry
0.283
0.345
+11.0
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Harry Ford
FRV-2.2
framing-0.4
blocking-1.3
throwing-0.5
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
FRV+13.9
framing+8.1
blocking+2.8
throwing+2.9
WSH · Richard Lovelady
Last outing 2026-09-19 vs STL · 0.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
108(+12)
93
Location+
96
96(-0)
110
Pitching+
92
88(-4)
101
botStf
59
61(+2)
59
botCmd
54
53(-0)
64
botOvr
55
57(+3)
64
SIERA
5.43
1.94(-3.49)
5.56
Last 3 starts: 2026-05-22 → 2026-06-08. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.45
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-19; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
DET · Framber Valdez
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs CWS · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
108(+5)
104
Location+
96
81(-16)
94
Pitching+
100
85(-16)
96
botStf
49
45(-4)
46
botCmd
52
46(-7)
51
botOvr
51
46(-5)
50
SIERA
4.49
3.70(-0.79)
4.12
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.39–0.53]
0.108 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.