Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 824060past slate · free
refreshed 43h 27m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Kauffman Stadium
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
71°F
humidity 53%
wind
8 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
clear
park
KC
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.23 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_
opener / bulk pattern
CWS: Bryan Hudson opens → bulk: Erick Fedde· predicted bulk based on 4/66 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Bryan HudsonLHP · opener · CWS
Erick FeddeRHP · bulk · CWS
Seth LugoRHP · KC
xERA 2026
3.10
4.79
5.09
xwOBA 2026
0.273
0.334
0.343
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.019
-0.008
0.016
xERA 2025
4.64
5.37
5.16
xwOBA 2025
0.332
0.354
0.348
Outs/TB 25-26
2.26
1.79
1.70
FIP 25-26
3.63
5.11
4.71
kwERA 25-26
3.70
4.77
4.09
K% 25-26
22.6%
14.8%
19.1%
BB% 25-26
8.4%
9.6%
8.1%
IP 25+26 combined
80.3
279.3
314.3
ERA actual 2026
3.03
3.90
5.06
ERA (L4)
3.38
1.83
8.68
WHIP (L4)
0.75
1.02
2.09
K% (L4)
26.3%
22.5%
16.3%
BB% (L4)
0.0%
7.5%
7.6%
IP/gm (L4)
1.33
4.92
4.67
L4 window
06/18→09/06 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
07/31→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (−4)
89 (−0)
94 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.20 (+0.52)
4.86 (−0.24)
4.65 (−0.05)
Arsenal RV/100
0.20
-0.11
-1.00
away arsenal · BULK Erick Fedde — CWS
RV/100 -0.11
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—-0.60xwOBA 0.363
Cutter—-0.80xwOBA 0.376
Changeup—-2.70xwOBA 0.351
home arsenal — KC
RV/100 -1.00
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.407
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.260
4-Seam Fastball—-2.70xwOBA 0.386
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.341
Sweeper—-1.90xwOBA 0.338
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.310
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.321
Slurve—-4.00xwOBA 0.336
away · CWS vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.915
Σ match
3.224
Σ FRV
+15.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Sam Antonacci
0.341
0.374
-9.7
2
C
Kyle Teel
0.303
0.328
-1.6
3
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.380
0.414
-3.9
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.344
0.389
-1.7
5
DH
Andrew Benintendi
0.307
0.348
-1.6
6
CF
Tristan Peters
0.315
0.344
+10.2
7
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.299
0.319
+10.9
8
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.301
0.344
+10.0
9
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.325
0.364
+2.9
home · KC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.915
Σ match
3.069
Σ FRV
+15.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.310
0.330
+2.9
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.379
0.397
+14.9
3
RF
Jac Caglianone
0.357
0.352
-8.1
4
3B
Maikel Garcia
0.313
0.315
+5.2
5
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.336
0.351
+0.3
6
DH
Salvador Perez
0.310
0.351
-9.5
7
2B
Michael Massey
0.305
0.330
+7.7
8
CF
John Rave
0.311
0.329
+1.3
9
LF
Isaac Collins
0.294
0.314
+0.6
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.6
framing-1.7
blocking-1.4
throwing+1.5
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+2.9
framing+3.5
blocking-2.1
throwing+1.6
CWS · Erick Fedde
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs DET · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
89
88(-1)
89
Location+
108
117(+9)
112
Pitching+
99
109(+10)
103
botStf
50
55(+5)
52
botCmd
56
57(+1)
56
botOvr
53
56(+3)
54
SIERA
5.10
3.57(-1.53)
4.86
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-29 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.74
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
KC · Seth Lugo
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs HOU · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
90
101(+12)
94
Location+
104
102(-2)
102
Pitching+
94
98(+3)
91
botStf
45
47(+2)
44
botCmd
56
61(+5)
56
botOvr
52
56(+4)
51
SIERA
4.69
4.23(-0.47)
4.65
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.66
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.115 R/PA · 0.162 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
3.31
21.8
9.2
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.82
31.2
9.1
1.33
10/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.24
21.9
6.3
0.98
8/10/8
stable
Huascar Brazobán
OPENER
MR
3.82
20.8
11.2
1.16
0/11/1
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.79
29.2
15.8
0.91
1/10/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.12
21.3
7.6
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.38
38.4
15.2
—
0/1/0
—
Noah Schultz
SP
MR
4.63
20.6
10.0
4.56
0/1/0
ramping down
Luis Castillo
SP
LR
5.04
18.9
7.4
4.87
0/1/2
stable
KC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Alex Lange
CLOSER
MR
5.14
22.4
11.4
1.03
10/3/20
stable
Lucas Erceg
CLOSER
SU
5.43
14.9
13.5
0.96
12/4/24
stable
Connor Thomas
BULK
MR
5.70
15.8
8.9
3.67
0/4/0
insufficient data
Steven Cruz
OPENER
CL
5.26
26.0
8.3
1.06
7/5/7
stable
Jose Cuas
MR
MR
2.60
24.7
12.9
1.27
0/5/4
ramping down
Nolan Hoffman
MR
MR
2.94
17.9
7.1
1.56
0/3/2
insufficient data
Anthony Gose
unknown
MR
2.57
10.8
2.7
—
0/2/0
—
Nate Pearson
unknown
MR
3.65
21.5
11.0
—
4/6/0
—
Tony Gonsolin
unknown
LR
7.59
33.3
20.0
—
0/0/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.