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today's slate

SD @ LAD

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823894past slate · free

refreshed 41h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

71°F

humidity 80%

wind

4 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.10 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Robbie RayLHP · SD	Yoshinobu YamamotoRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	4.79	2.94
xwOBA 2026	0.334	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.021	-0.025
xERA 2025	3.71	2.71
xwOBA 2025	0.300	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	2.14	2.87
FIP 25-26	4.30	3.10
kwERA 25-26	4.00	2.95
K% 25-26	22.5%	27.7%
BB% 25-26	10.8%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	344.7	352.7
ERA actual 2026	3.60	2.51
ERA (L4)	6.52	1.98
WHIP (L4)	1.45	0.70
K% (L4)	18.8%	33.3%
BB% (L4)	15.3%	6.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.83	6.83
L4 window	08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/27→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.32	1.63

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.32

4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.377
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.263
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.399
Curveball—+1.60xwOBA 0.232

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.63

Split-Finger—+1.00xwOBA 0.211
4-Seam Fastball—+2.30xwOBA 0.329
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.295
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.293
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.248
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.242

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.811

Σ match

2.561

Σ FRV

+32.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.380	0.331	+4.0
2	LF	Dustin Harris	0.309	0.276	+0.3
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.329	0.303	+7.2
4	1B	Ty France	0.333	0.285	+10.6
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.347	0.305	+10.7
6	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.323	0.282	+4.4
7	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.273	0.249	-1.9
8	DH	Samad Taylor	0.318	0.290	-1.8
9	C	Ethan Salas	0.199	0.239	-0.7

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.149

Σ match

3.362

Σ FRV

+8.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Mookie Betts	0.339	0.355	+6.3
2	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.399	0.419	—
3	C	Will Smith	0.385	0.415	-1.1
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.365	0.377	+1.4
5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.331	0.372	-6.1
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.334	0.358	-7.0
7	CF	Andy Pages	0.342	0.351	+11.8
8	3B	Max Muncy	0.349	0.392	+0.7
9	2B	Tommy Edman	0.305	0.324	+2.3

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas

FRV-0.7
framing-0.6
blocking+0.0
throwing-0.1

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-1.1
framing-1.7
blocking+0.6
throwing+0.0

SD · Robbie Ray

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs COL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 76 · Pitching+ 80 · botStf 46 · botCmd 43 · botOvr 42 · SIERA 5.59

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 66 · Pitching+ 64 · botStf 45 · botCmd 41 · botOvr 36 · SIERA 8.75

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs CIN · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-09: Stuff+ 101 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 54 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 60 · SIERA 1.73

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 111 · botStf 55 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 2.99

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]

0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.41)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.36–0.43]

0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Kris Bubic (3.80)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.12	48.2	9.0	1.04	37/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.35	30.5	7.7	1.16	3/27/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.55	21.8	8.8	1.40	0/9/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.81	26.6	6.3	1.09	2/16/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.03	15.6	7.3	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	3.84	24.0	12.7	1.22	0/3/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.23	26.3	13.9	1.35	1/10/5	ramping down
Randy Vásquez	SP	MR	4.31	15.0	6.5	4.83	0/2/0	ramping down
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.81	22.5	10.6	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.18	32.0	6.1	0.94	23/13/21	stable
Edwin Díaz	CLOSER	MR	4.95	27.8	12.2	0.86	7/0/6	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	SU	3.20	30.7	13.9	0.76	3/20/6	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.64	24.8	9.6	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.52	28.0	9.2	1.01	2/11/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.79	24.5	9.2	1.06	1/8/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.40	29.2	6.2	1.00	1/8/3	stable
Kris Bubic	SP	MR	3.53	25.2	11.9	5.59	0/1/0	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	LR	4.21	20.1	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down
Roki Sasaki	SP	LR	4.81	23.1	9.3	5.10	0/0/0	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 SD · 1 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

5 R

8H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 12.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 5.7 IP · 6 arms

LAD

1 R

10H · 0HR · 5BB · 8K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.375 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 3-5 | 2B, K, R3 H · 4 TB
Manny Machado (3B) · 1-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Jackson Merrill (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Xander Bogaerts (SS) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jake Cronenworth (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 3-4 | K, R3 H
Andy Pages (CF) · 3-4 | 2B, K3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5