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today's slate

TB @ NYY

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823492past slate · free

refreshed 43h 28m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Yankee Stadium

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

63°F

humidity 50%

wind

10 mph

in from RF

precip

overcast

park

NYY

open · HP→CF 75°

wind impact on total

-0.23 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Mason EnglertRHP · TB	Gerrit ColeRHP · NYY
xERA 2026	5.77	3.84
xwOBA 2026	0.362	0.302
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.008	0.001
xERA 2025	4.27	—
xwOBA 2025	0.320	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.86	1.82
FIP 25-26	4.11	3.91
kwERA 25-26	3.40	2.96
K% 25-26	22.3%	24.7%
BB% 25-26	5.6%	4.4%
IP 25+26 combined	80.3	121.3
ERA actual 2026	4.54	3.63
ERA (L4)	3.18	5.56
WHIP (L4)	1.06	1.24
K% (L4)	37.5%	18.9%
BB% (L4)	4.2%	1.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.67	5.67
L4 window	07/05→07/05 (1 st) · 0/1 dates verified	09/01→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	102 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	4.62 (+0.79)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.79	0.44

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 -0.79

Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.268
Sinker—-0.90xwOBA 0.456
Curveball—+2.00xwOBA 0.257
4-Seam Fastball—-4.50xwOBA 0.456
Cutter—+1.60xwOBA 0.358

home arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.44

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.297
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.284
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.333
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.258
Sinker—-1.40xwOBA 0.532

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.800

Σ match

2.723

Σ FRV

+15.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.334	0.322	+9.1
2	DH	Jonathan Aranda	0.345	0.328	-1.0
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.361	0.360	-7.3
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.319	0.314	+3.0
5	RF	Jonny DeLuca	0.257	0.240	+10.1
6	2B	Richie Palacios	0.309	0.310	-3.8
7	1B	Ryan Vilade	0.333	0.321	-2.8
8	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.264	0.262	+9.2
9	SS	Jorge Mateo	0.278	0.266	-1.4

home · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.771

Σ match

3.166

Σ FRV

-4.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.375	0.430	-4.7
2	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.291	0.318	-1.9
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.341	0.387	+1.8
4	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.327	0.368	-8.4
5	CF	Spencer Jones	0.325	0.364	-3.0
6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.350	+6.6
7	LF	José Caballero	0.280	0.324	+0.1
8	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.293	0.339	+0.7
9	C	Ali Sánchez	0.244	0.284	+4.4

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+3.0
framing+1.1
blocking-0.7
throwing+1.8

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Ali Sánchez

FRV+4.4
framing+5.7
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.9

TB · Mason Englert

Last outing 2026-07-05 vs HOU · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 1 starts: 2026-07-05 → 2026-07-05. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-05; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYY · Gerrit Cole

Last outing 2026-09-18 vs AZ · 6.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	103	99(-4)	102
Location+	106	106(-0)	112
Pitching+	106	103(-3)	111
botStf	52	51(-1)	52
botCmd	57	53(-4)	58
botOvr	57	53(-4)	59
SIERA	3.83	2.91(-0.92)	4.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.21

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.19)

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.26–0.65]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.08)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	3.06	26.1	9.1	0.96	40/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.04	22.5	4.0	1.10	4/32/9	stable
Cole Sulser	OPENER	MR	3.69	23.4	6.8	1.11	3/11/9	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	4.01	18.2	6.4	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	4.99	17.4	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	SU	3.02	29.5	4.1	1.11	0/12/5	stable
Ty Johnson	unknown	MR	3.09	39.3	10.7	—	0/1/0	—
Brody Hopkins	unknown	MR	6.76	33.3	16.7	—	0/0/0	—

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.56	27.3	6.6	1.10	35/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.42	30.2	7.9	1.01	0/29/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.68	16.2	10.8	0.91	2/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.99	10.6	5.5	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.74	20.9	9.8	1.53	1/11/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.57	17.2	8.6	1.59	3/2/14	stable
Clarke Schmidt	unknown	MR	-2.91	50.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.71	27.8	13.0	—	0/2/0	—
Luis Gil	SP	MR	6.96	14.9	12.3	4.83	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 TB · 9 NYY

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

2 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 11 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

NYY

9 R

12H · 4HR · 4BB · 11K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.390 · SLGe 0.694 · K% 26.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 3.3 IP · 6 arms

TB · standout lines

big nights

Jonny DeLuca (RF) · 3-4 | 2B, K, RBI3 H · 4 TB
Cedric Mullins (CF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Jonathan Aranda (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ryan Vilade (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 3-4 | 2 HR, BB, 2 RBI2-HR night · 3 H · 9 TB
George Lombard Jr. (SS) · 1-5 | HR, 4 K, RBIHR
Ryan McMahon (3B) · 2-4 | HR, K, 5 RBIHR · 5 RBI