Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823410past slate · free
refreshed 43h 29m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citizens Bank Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
62°F
humidity 61%
wind
12 mph
in from LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
PHI
open · HP→CF 16°
wind impact on total
-0.27 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.27 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Logan HendersonRHP · MIL
Aaron NolaRHP · PHI
xERA 2026
2.74
4.12
xwOBA 2026
0.257
0.312
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.008
0.030
xERA 2025
3.69
4.13
xwOBA 2025
0.299
0.315
Outs/TB 25-26
2.50
1.63
FIP 25-26
3.23
4.70
kwERA 25-26
2.29
3.47
K% 25-26
31.2%
23.8%
BB% 25-26
5.3%
7.7%
IP 25+26 combined
118.7
262.7
ERA actual 2026
2.51
4.49
ERA (L4)
2.25
1.42
WHIP (L4)
0.58
1.07
K% (L4)
32.9%
16.3%
BB% (L4)
2.4%
9.2%
IP/gm (L4)
6.00
6.33
L4 window
08/28→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−3)
102 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.59 (−0.63)
4.82 (+0.75)
Arsenal RV/100
1.09
-0.58
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 1.09
4-Seam Fastball—+2.00xwOBA 0.230
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.247
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.331
Sweeper—-3.10xwOBA 0.392
home arsenal — PHI
RV/100 -0.58
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.228
4-Seam Fastball—-2.10xwOBA 0.387
Sinker—-2.40xwOBA 0.382
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.304
Cutter—-2.20xwOBA 0.338
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.899
Σ match
2.974
Σ FRV
+14.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.353
0.361
+4.7
2
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.339
0.344
+8.1
3
2B
Brice Turang
0.342
0.347
+12.6
4
C
William Contreras
0.335
0.333
-3.6
5
1B
Jake Bauers
0.378
0.381
-9.1
6
SS
Joey Ortiz
0.296
0.312
+11.9
7
DH
Christian Yelich
0.307
0.312
+0.0
8
RF
Sal Frelick
0.279
0.303
-1.7
9
3B
David Hamilton
0.270
0.282
-8.4
home · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.911
Σ match
2.418
Σ FRV
-20.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.364
0.297
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.295
0.248
-9.5
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.381
0.345
-12.2
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.308
0.246
+10.4
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.331
0.273
-6.5
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.328
0.278
+5.2
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.302
0.240
-5.7
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.319
0.257
+0.5
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.283
0.234
-2.0
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.6
framing-5.4
blocking-1.5
throwing+3.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV+0.5
framing-0.2
blocking-1.3
throwing+2.0
MIL · Logan Henderson
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs PIT · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
102
103(+0)
100
Location+
107
119(+11)
115
Pitching+
106
116(+9)
110
botStf
52
54(+2)
53
botCmd
59
66(+7)
63
botOvr
58
67(+9)
61
SIERA
3.22
2.10(-1.12)
2.59
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 1.78
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PHI · Aaron Nola
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs NYM · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
100(-4)
102
Location+
104
97(-7)
105
Pitching+
107
102(-5)
106
botStf
51
51(+1)
50
botCmd
58
60(+2)
60
botOvr
56
59(+3)
58
SIERA
4.07
4.38(+0.31)
4.82
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.13
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.45]
0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.10)
PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.37R / inningband [0.30–0.44]
0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Max Lazar (4.71)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.87
28.5
6.4
0.97
29/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.73
26.5
8.4
0.99
6/22/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.20
30.3
11.1
1.23
3/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.16
21.9
7.9
0.98
0/22/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.76
23.7
8.2
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.96
21.6
10.2
2.46
6/11/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.69
19.1
8.2
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.87
27.0
14.6
1.29
0/5/5
stable
PHI
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jhoan Duran
CLOSER
CL
1.45
35.2
4.3
0.94
33/0/35
stable
Jonathan Bowlan
SETUP
MR
3.36
31.9
6.6
0.93
2/14/2
stable
José Alvarado
SETUP
SU
3.61
26.5
10.2
0.85
1/16/3
stable
Brooks Raley
SETUP
MR
3.96
23.2
9.1
0.89
1/16/5
stable
Tim Mayza
OPENER
MR
3.18
24.1
6.5
1.15
0/2/9
stable
Chase Shugart
MR
MR
4.83
25.9
9.0
1.13
0/0/10
stable
Tanner Banks
MR
MR
5.49
21.3
8.5
1.04
0/2/6
stable
Max Lazar
MR
MR
7.84
14.3
8.6
1.33
0/0/1
stable
Alex McFarlane
unknown
SU
2.86
23.5
7.4
—
0/5/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.