Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823327past slate · free
refreshed 43h 28m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
60°F
humidity 72%
wind
8 mph
in from RF
precip
2%
overcast
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.17 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.17 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_
opener / bulk pattern
PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: Carmen Mlodzinski· predicted bulk based on 3/45 prior short outings
both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)
openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Matthew LiberatoreLHP · STL
Lake BacharRHP · opener · PIT
Carmen MlodzinskiRHP · bulk · PIT
xERA 2026
5.02
3.52
4.95
xwOBA 2026
0.341
0.290
0.339
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.016
-0.002
-0.028
xERA 2025
4.86
4.48
4.07
xwOBA 2025
0.339
0.327
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
1.72
2.24
2.00
FIP 25-26
4.34
4.37
3.56
kwERA 25-26
3.79
3.58
3.97
K% 25-26
20.7%
25.3%
19.2%
BB% 25-26
7.3%
10.1%
7.3%
IP 25+26 combined
301.0
154.3
219.7
ERA actual 2026
5.36
3.56
3.95
ERA (L4)
4.87
2.57
9.45
WHIP (L4)
1.57
1.86
2.48
K% (L4)
18.0%
23.5%
9.9%
BB% (L4)
11.2%
14.7%
11.3%
IP/gm (L4)
5.08
1.75
3.33
L4 window
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/03→09/20 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
05/25→08/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (−4)
96 (−1)
91 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.04 (+1.81)
3.23 (−1.24)
5.93 (+1.22)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.74
0.76
0.06
away arsenal — STL
RV/100 -0.74
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.394
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.262
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.247
Changeup—-1.50xwOBA 0.420
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.385
Cutter—-4.60xwOBA 0.379
home arsenal · BULK Carmen Mlodzinski — PIT
RV/100 0.06
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.375
Split-Finger—+1.10xwOBA 0.277
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.409
Curveball—+0.20xwOBA 0.319
Sweeper—+1.40xwOBA 0.257
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.396
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.333
away · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.919
Σ match
3.116
Σ FRV
+32.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
JJ Wetherholt
0.347
0.375
+22.4
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.333
0.353
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.371
0.415
+6.3
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.342
0.377
-7.6
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.366
0.353
+1.4
6
3B
Nolan Gorman
0.280
0.309
-0.3
7
LF
José Fermín
0.295
0.317
-2.9
8
CF
Nathan Church
0.287
0.308
+1.2
9
SS
Masyn Winn
0.298
0.307
+16.4
home · PIT vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.897
Σ match
3.062
Σ FRV
-7.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.307
0.325
-3.1
2
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.358
0.381
-1.1
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.354
0.378
-4.4
4
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.330
0.355
+11.9
5
DH
Nick Gonzales
0.324
0.350
-10.0
6
RF
Ronny Simon
0.333
0.338
+0.2
7
1B
Ryan O'Hearn
0.316
0.329
-2.6
8
3B
Jared Triolo
0.286
0.301
+0.1
9
CF
Jake Mangum
0.289
0.306
+1.5
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV+1.4
framing+0.9
blocking+0.3
throwing+1.0
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-1.1
framing+0.3
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.7
STL · Matthew Liberatore
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs SF · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
93(-4)
94
Location+
99
92(-8)
85
Pitching+
96
86(-10)
81
botStf
51
48(-3)
50
botCmd
53
47(-5)
47
botOvr
51
45(-5)
46
SIERA
4.23
6.48(+2.25)
6.04
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 5.53
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Carmen Mlodzinski
Last outing 2026-09-20 vs KC · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
91
89(-3)
91
Location+
104
105(+1)
107
Pitching+
95
103(+8)
98
botStf
46
44(-3)
47
botCmd
54
53(-1)
56
botOvr
51
51(-0)
52
SIERA
4.71
4.93(+0.22)
5.93
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.62
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-20; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.