Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823168past slate · free
refreshed 45h 44m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Oracle Park
gametime 3:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
74°F
humidity 60%
wind
5 mph
cross RF to LF
precip
0%
clear
park
SF
open · HP→CF 91°
wind impact on total
+0.03 R/Gnone cross
Cross wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Connor PrielippLHP · MIN
Cesar PerdomoLHP · SF
xERA 2026
4.01
4.92
xwOBA 2026
0.308
0.338
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.008
0.008
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
2.01
1.76
FIP 25-26
3.75
4.95
kwERA 25-26
3.46
4.68
K% 25-26
24.4%
14.5%
BB% 25-26
8.2%
8.4%
IP 25+26 combined
120.3
19.3
ERA actual 2026
4.94
3.72
ERA (L4)
4.56
3.72
WHIP (L4)
1.10
1.50
K% (L4)
22.3%
14.5%
BB% (L4)
5.3%
8.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
4.83
L4 window
08/21→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/01→09/18 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
100 (−3)
87 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.16 (+0.18)
5.46 (+1.43)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.18
0.09
away arsenal — MIN
RV/100 -0.18
Slider—+0.80xwOBA 0.284
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.405
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.164
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.337
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.335
home arsenal — SF
RV/100 0.09
4-Seam Fastball—-1.70xwOBA 0.435
Changeup—+4.40xwOBA 0.257
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.346
away · MIN vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.577
Σ match
3.106
Σ FRV
-17.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Luke Keaschall
0.315
0.358
-10.7
2
3B
Brooks Lee
0.278
0.314
+0.2
3
DH
Josh Bell
0.333
0.397
-1.0
4
C
Ryan Jeffers
0.345
0.371
-5.0
5
LF
Alan Roden
0.349
0.399
-1.2
6
2B
Royce Lewis
0.305
0.318
-1.2
7
CF
Emmanuel Rodriguez
0.349
0.426
+1.3
8
1B
Aaron Sabato
0.156
0.263
-0.0
9
SS
Ben Ross
0.147
0.260
-0.2
home · SF vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.601
Σ match
2.556
Σ FRV
-6.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Jonah Cox
0.265
0.258
+0.8
2
CF
Turner Hill
0.325
0.319
+0.3
3
LF
Victor Bericoto
0.299
0.303
-2.3
4
RF
Bo Davidson
0.389
0.341
+0.1
5
C
Andrew Knizner
0.295
0.281
-5.3
6
1B
Brett Harris
0.263
0.276
+0.6
7
DH
Marcelo Mayer
0.254
0.263
-2.1
8
3B
Shay Whitcomb
0.263
0.265
+0.6
9
SS
Christian Koss
0.248
0.251
+0.9
defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Ryan Jeffers
FRV-5.0
framing-1.1
blocking-0.0
throwing-3.8
defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)
Andrew Knizner
FRV-5.3
framing-2.7
blocking-1.1
throwing-1.5
MIN · Connor Prielipp
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs LAA · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
103
98(-5)
100
Location+
104
85(-19)
100
Pitching+
104
83(-21)
96
botStf
54
51(-3)
50
botCmd
55
48(-7)
59
botOvr
55
49(-7)
57
SIERA
3.99
3.23(-0.76)
4.16
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-26 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.93
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
SF · Cesar Perdomo
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs LAD · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
86
92(+6)
87
Location+
107
96(-11)
104
Pitching+
98
92(-6)
97
botStf
49
50(+2)
49
botCmd
53
53(-0)
55
botOvr
49
49(+0)
49
SIERA
4.03
7.57(+3.54)
5.46
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.93
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.47]
0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.42)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.