Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 823086past slate · free
refreshed 39h 17m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · T-Mobile Park
gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
57°F
humidity 73%
roof
likely closed
wind irrelevant
precip
0%
clear
park
SEA
retractable · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
neutralnone roof_closed
Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Ethan PeckoRHP · HOU
George KirbyRHP · SEA
xERA 2026
4.82
4.21
xwOBA 2026
0.335
0.315
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.034
0.023
xERA 2025
—
3.88
xwOBA 2025
—
0.306
Outs/TB 25-26
2.21
1.84
FIP 25-26
5.50
3.64
kwERA 25-26
4.68
3.40
K% 25-26
16.4%
22.6%
BB% 25-26
10.3%
5.9%
IP 25+26 combined
28.7
295.7
ERA actual 2026
3.77
4.24
ERA (L4)
5.19
5.73
WHIP (L4)
1.50
1.73
K% (L4)
14.3%
16.8%
BB% (L4)
13.0%
9.9%
IP/gm (L4)
4.33
5.50
L4 window
08/19→09/05 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/31→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (−3)
104 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
6.09 (+0.39)
4.73 (+0.61)
Arsenal RV/100
0.81
-0.33
away arsenal — HOU
RV/100 0.81
4-Seam Fastball—-1.80xwOBA 0.466
Sinker—+4.30xwOBA 0.298
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.421
Sweeper—+1.60xwOBA 0.189
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.262
home arsenal — SEA
RV/100 -0.33
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.286
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.332
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.286
Curveball—-2.60xwOBA 0.330
Changeup—-2.10xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.382
Split-Finger—-6.30xwOBA 0.441
away · HOU vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.741
Σ match
2.758
Σ FRV
-8.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
Jose Altuve
0.272
0.266
-10.0
2
DH
Yordan Alvarez
0.445
0.457
-2.7
3
3B
Isaac Paredes
0.323
0.324
+1.4
4
C
Yainer Diaz
0.309
0.301
-5.0
5
1B
Christian Walker
0.300
0.290
+7.2
6
LF
Taylor Trammell
0.292
0.296
-1.2
7
RF
Cam Smith
0.318
0.300
+2.4
8
CF
Lucas Spence
0.236
0.284
-0.2
9
SS
Nick Allen
0.246
0.241
-0.4
home · SEA vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.876
Σ match
3.138
Σ FRV
-33.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
J.P. Crawford
0.322
0.342
-9.8
2
LF
Randy Arozarena
0.349
0.385
-7.1
3
DH
Dominic Canzone
0.355
0.398
-0.4
4
C
Cal Raleigh
0.311
0.340
-5.4
5
CF
Julio Rodríguez
0.334
0.358
-0.0
6
1B
Josh Naylor
0.311
0.344
+2.4
7
2B
Cole Young
0.314
0.350
-5.0
8
RF
Lazaro Montes
0.320
0.331
-0.6
9
3B
Weston Wilson
0.260
0.289
-7.3
defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)
Yainer Diaz
FRV-5.0
framing-4.2
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.3
defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)
Cal Raleigh
FRV-5.4
framing-4.2
blocking+2.9
throwing-4.1
HOU · Ethan Pecko
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs KC · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
95(-4)
97
Location+
99
109(+10)
101
Pitching+
100
102(+2)
101
botStf
49
46(-3)
50
botCmd
48
54(+6)
51
botOvr
48
50(+1)
51
SIERA
5.70
3.16(-2.54)
6.09
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-09-05. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.81
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
SEA · George Kirby
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs LAA · 4.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
103(+2)
104
Location+
112
103(-9)
107
Pitching+
112
106(-6)
109
botStf
55
58(+3)
56
botCmd
60
53(-7)
54
botOvr
59
58(-0)
58
SIERA
4.12
6.17(+2.05)
4.73
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.29
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
11
5 HOU · 6 SEA
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
HOU
5 R
10H · 1HR · 3BB · 13K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.309 · SLGe 0.474 · K% 30.9
Their pitching
9.3 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 6.7 IP · 6 arms
SEA
6 R
9H · 0HR · 7BB · 7K · 13LOB
OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.286 · K% 16.7
Their pitching
10.0 IP · 4 ER · 13 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms
HOU · standout lines
big nights
Yainer Diaz (C) · 2-5 | HR, 3B, 3 RBIHR · 7 TB
tough nights
Taylor Trammell (LF) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K
Lucas Spence (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, CS0-for-3 · 2 K
SEA · standout lines
big nights
Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, 2 RBI3 H · 4 TB