Baseball Daily

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today's slate

NYM @ TEX

Wednesday · September 23, 2026·full·gamePk 822841past slate · free

refreshed 43h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 62%

wind

3 mph

out to LF

precip

11%

overcast

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

neutralnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Nolan McLeanRHP · NYM	Cody BradfordLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.70	5.16
xwOBA 2026	0.297	0.345
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.004	0.009
xERA 2025	3.56	—
xwOBA 2025	0.294	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.53	1.61
FIP 25-26	3.49	4.26
kwERA 25-26	3.27	4.69
K% 25-26	27.1%	11.8%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	5.9%
IP 25+26 combined	220.7	38.7
ERA actual 2026	3.18	4.19
ERA (L4)	3.00	6.16
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.68
K% (L4)	20.2%	8.0%
BB% (L4)	10.6%	5.7%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	4.75
L4 window	08/29→09/17 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/22→09/09 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.46	-0.09

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.46

Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.275
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.390
Curveball—+0.50xwOBA 0.168
Sweeper—-3.00xwOBA 0.396
Cutter—-2.00xwOBA 0.375
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.317
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.207

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 -0.09

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.373
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.247
Slider—-1.50xwOBA 0.382

away · NYM vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.982

Σ match

3.202

Σ FRV

-5.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.332	0.348	+0.3
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.411	0.442	-5.2
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.328	0.350	-1.0
4	1B	Mark Vientos	0.311	0.347	-6.9
5	RF	Carson Benge	0.340	0.361	+7.3
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.302	0.341	-8.4
7	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.324	0.344	+0.9
8	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.319	0.351	+5.5
9	LF	Nick Morabito	0.315	0.320	+1.7

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.792

Σ match

2.780

Σ FRV

+16.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.324	0.317	+4.3
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.349	0.342	-0.8
3	DH	Josh Jung	0.345	0.336	-4.2
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.343	0.328	-6.3
5	3B	Ezequiel Duran	0.303	0.308	+12.5
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.318	0.324	+4.5
7	2B	Nicky Lopez	0.266	0.265	+1.4
8	C	Danny Jansen	0.266	0.274	-3.4
9	CF	Evan Carter	0.278	0.287	+8.6

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV+0.9
framing+2.3
blocking-2.3
throwing+0.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.4
framing-4.6
blocking+2.0
throwing-0.8

NYM · Nolan McLean

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs PHI · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-17. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 61 · botCmd 50 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 3.93

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 109 · Location+ 78 · Pitching+ 93 · botStf 61 · botCmd 44 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 4.39

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Cody Bradford

Last outing 2026-09-09 vs SEA · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-28 → 2026-09-09. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 90 · botStf 45 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.85

2026-08-28: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 94 · botStf 47 · botCmd 64 · botOvr 58 · SIERA 6.93

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.31–0.48]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tobias Myers (4.18)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.49]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Winston Santos (5.40)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Devin Williams	CLOSER	CL	3.09	28.7	11.8	0.91	16/0/24	stable
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.6	11.1	1.35	0/2/9	stable
Cionel Pérez	OPENER	MR	4.46	22.7	9.2	1.16	0/6/6	ramping up
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	4.74	17.3	7.1	1.77	2/3/5	stable
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.04	23.6	11.8	2.47	0/3/2	ramping up
Jack Weisenburger	unknown	LR	1.63	28.3	6.5	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Lavender	unknown	MR	1.82	34.2	5.5	—	0/11/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.04	29.6	14.8	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	SU	4.09	24.6	0.0	—	1/5/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.73	29.9	8.4	1.28	30/3/26	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.76	26.8	13.0	0.85	0/17/7	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	MR	3.81	16.4	6.6	1.12	6/18/9	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	MR	4.11	24.1	6.8	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	3.06	19.8	7.2	0.95	4/13/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	4.24	17.7	14.5	0.89	0/4/1	stable
Winston Santos	MR	MR	10.09	11.1	11.1	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Trevor Williams	unknown	LR	3.55	27.3	8.2	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	MR	4.34	17.2	5.7	—	0/0/0	—
Nathan Eovaldi	SP	MR	4.22	23.7	5.5	6.07	0/1/0	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 NYM · 2 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

7 R

8H · 3HR · 5BB · 7K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.472 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

TEX

2 R

4H · 0HR · 1BB · 6K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.129 · K% 18.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 K · relief 4.7 IP · 6 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Juan Soto (DH) · 1-2 | HR, 3 BB, 2 RBIHR
Brett Baty (1B) · 1-1 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI
Marcus Semien (2B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Bo Bichette (3B) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4
Mark Vientos (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Carson Benge (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

TEX · standout lines

tough nights

Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Corey Seager (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ezequiel Duran (3B) · 0-40-for-4