Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

LAA @ ATH

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824953past slate · free

refreshed 66h 49m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Sutter Health Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

74°F

humidity 49%

wind

5 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

ATH

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.19 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.19 R/G vs neutral. _Sutter Health Park (Sacramento) — open bowl, delta breeze in afternoon_

opener / bulk pattern

ATH: Brady Basso opens → bulk: Jack Perkins· predicted bulk based on 2/22 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA	Brady BassoLHP · opener · ATH	Jack PerkinsRHP · bulk · ATH
xERA 2026	4.96	3.90	4.04
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.304	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.008	0.045	0.038
xERA 2025	4.48	4.16	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.327	0.316	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	1.82	1.71	1.91
FIP 25-26	4.22	3.39	4.46
kwERA 25-26	3.89	4.35	3.61
K% 25-26	22.5%	15.4%	24.7%
BB% 25-26	9.9%	6.7%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	235.7	51.7	154.7
ERA actual 2026	5.02	4.50	5.90
ERA (L4)	2.95	8.10	3.48
WHIP (L4)	1.50	2.00	1.26
K% (L4)	22.1%	11.8%	25.6%
BB% (L4)	13.7%	3.9%	7.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	2.50	5.17
L4 window	08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/23→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	09/03→09/20 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.56	-0.42	-0.54

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.56

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.297
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.359
Split-Finger—-0.10xwOBA 0.320
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.299
Cutter—-4.40xwOBA 0.581

home arsenal · BULK Jack Perkins — ATH

RV/100 -0.54

4-Seam Fastball—-2.10xwOBA 0.375
Sweeper—+0.50xwOBA 0.281
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.199
Cutter—-0.60xwOBA 0.380
Sinker—-3.30xwOBA 0.347
Slider—+1.20xwOBA 0.265

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.594

Σ match

2.679

Σ FRV

-10.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.311	0.317	-1.8
2	DH	Mike Trout	0.378	0.393	-3.9
3	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.308	0.322	-5.5
4	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.269	0.265	-0.1
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.293	0.285	-2.3
6	CF	Jose Siri	0.299	0.308	+1.4
7	RF	Wade Meckler	0.309	0.308	+1.4
8	2B	Christian Moore	0.225	0.237	-1.7
9	LF	Bryce Teodosio	0.202	0.243	+2.1

home · ATH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.673

Σ match

2.927

Σ FRV

-16.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Henry Bolte	0.317	0.348	+3.2
2	DH	Shea Langeliers	0.359	0.386	-3.6
3	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.324	0.356	-10.9
4	3B	Zack Gelof	0.318	0.334	-0.1
5	1B	Tommy White	0.290	0.337	-4.4
6	2B	Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	0.327	0.345	+0.8
7	C	Jonah Heim	0.284	0.307	-6.3
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.240	0.266	+3.1
9	CF	Denzel Clarke	0.214	0.248	+2.1

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-2.3
framing-1.7
blocking-0.8
throwing-0.3

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-6.3
framing-1.4
blocking-2.2
throwing-1.7

LAA · Yusei Kikuchi

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs SEA · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 100 · Location+ 88 · Pitching+ 85 · botStf 56 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 5.56

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 103 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 108 · botStf 58 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 61 · SIERA 4.38

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

ATH · Jack Perkins

Last outing 2026-09-20 vs CLE · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-20. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-15: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 98 · Pitching+ 100 · botStf 55 · botCmd 43 · botOvr 48 · SIERA 2.33

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 92 · Location+ 111 · Pitching+ 106 · botStf 50 · botCmd 56 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 4.22

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-20; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.47]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Sam Bachman (4.28)

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Yunior Tur (5.04)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sam Bachman	SETUP	MR	4.74	23.2	13.8	1.17	1/17/4	ramping down
Tayler Saucedo	MR	SU	2.40	29.6	6.2	0.56	0/9/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.86	27.0	10.6	1.11	1/8/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	3.88	20.7	7.6	1.61	3/8/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.57	24.8	11.3	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	3.34	19.7	2.8	—	0/3/0	—
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	3.55	29.5	14.8	—	5/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.67	23.7	13.2	—	0/5/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.33	24.2	7.7	—	0/1/0	—

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.53	29.7	11.9	1.38	0/12/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	4.11	28.4	13.4	0.93	15/13/13	stable
Drew Rom	MR	MR	3.09	25.0	10.3	1.13	0/3/1	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	3.50	17.1	9.5	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Seth Johnson	MR	LR	4.29	26.9	12.7	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.59	27.6	11.5	1.08	6/9/11	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.59	14.3	9.7	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	8.99	18.2	15.2	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	3.06	21.4	7.9	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 LAA · 9 ATH

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

7 R

15H · 1HR · 5BB · 7K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.467 · SLGe 0.487 · K% 15.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 9 ER · 3 K · relief 2.7 IP · 6 arms

ATH

9 R

14H · 2HR · 3BB · 3K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.439 · SLGe 0.750 · K% 7.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 K · relief 7.0 IP · 6 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Mike Trout (DH) · 3-4 | 2B, BB, K3 H · 4 TB
Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 3-4 | HBP, 2 RBI, R3 H
Denzer Guzman (3B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 4 RBIHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Bryce Teodosio (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Shea Langeliers (DH) · 3-5 | 2B, RBI, R3 H · 4 TB
Lawrence Butler (RF) · 3-4 | 3B, 2B, RBI3 H · 6 TB
Zack Gelof (3B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, HBPHR
Carlos Cortes (LF) · 2-2 | HR, 3B, 3 RBIHR · 7 TB

tough nights

Jonah Heim (C) · 0-40-for-4