Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824867past slate · free
refreshed 68h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Truist Park
gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
82°F
humidity 53%
wind
6 mph
in from RF
precip
12%
mostly clear
park
ATL
open · HP→CF 63°
wind impact on total
-0.18 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Truist's open bowl + foul-territory small footprint — wind out to LF plays significantly_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Brandon WilliamsonLHP · CIN
JR RitchieRHP · ATL
xERA 2026
6.35
5.30
xwOBA 2026
0.377
0.349
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.022
-0.004
xERA 2025
—
—
xwOBA 2025
—
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.79
1.90
FIP 25-26
6.18
5.63
kwERA 25-26
5.16
4.54
K% 25-26
15.8%
20.9%
BB% 25-26
13.8%
13.7%
IP 25+26 combined
43.7
62.7
ERA actual 2026
5.56
5.03
ERA (L4)
4.60
8.20
WHIP (L4)
1.34
1.77
K% (L4)
17.6%
22.7%
BB% (L4)
10.3%
13.6%
IP/gm (L4)
3.92
4.67
L4 window
09/02→09/17 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified
06/17→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
102 (+3)
98 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.77 (−1.25)
4.69 (−0.22)
Arsenal RV/100
-1.45
-0.84
away arsenal — CIN
RV/100 -1.45
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.328
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.350
4-Seam Fastball—-5.00xwOBA 0.556
Sweeper—+4.10xwOBA 0.205
Sinker—-9.30xwOBA 0.586
home arsenal — ATL
RV/100 -0.84
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.296
Sinker—+1.90xwOBA 0.378
4-Seam Fastball—-4.40xwOBA 0.381
Changeup—-1.90xwOBA 0.342
Cutter—-2.70xwOBA 0.435
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.320
away · CIN vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.794
Σ match
3.203
Σ FRV
-11.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Carlos Jorge
0.247
0.299
+0.7
2
SS
Elly De La Cruz
0.375
0.415
+4.8
3
1B
Sal Stewart
0.349
0.390
-3.7
4
C
Tyler Stephenson
0.328
0.378
-8.0
5
LF
JJ Bleday
0.340
0.406
-2.2
6
3B
Eugenio Suárez
0.298
0.342
-5.9
7
CF
Dane Myers
0.310
0.351
-0.8
8
DH
Héctor Rodríguez
0.249
0.283
-0.1
9
2B
Matt McLain
0.298
0.339
+4.0
home · ATL vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.787
Σ match
3.431
Σ FRV
+14.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
RF
Ronald Acuña Jr.
0.368
0.426
-4.9
2
DH
Drake Baldwin
0.367
0.430
-0.5
3
1B
Matt Olson
0.351
0.445
+11.5
4
2B
Ozzie Albies
0.279
0.359
-2.5
5
CF
Michael Harris II
0.339
0.424
+10.9
6
LF
Mauricio Dubón
0.306
0.376
+3.7
7
3B
Austin Riley
0.297
0.368
-0.6
8
C
Sean Murphy
0.265
0.333
-1.1
9
SS
Ha-Seong Kim
0.215
0.270
-2.0
defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)
Tyler Stephenson
FRV-8.0
framing-9.2
blocking+3.1
throwing-1.9
defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)
Sean Murphy
FRV-1.1
framing-0.8
blocking+0.9
throwing-1.2
CIN · Brandon Williamson
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs Los Angeles Dodgers · 2.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
103(+4)
102
Location+
91
100(+9)
96
Pitching+
91
109(+18)
101
botStf
48
50(+3)
49
botCmd
47
56(+9)
51
botOvr
46
51(+5)
49
SIERA
6.02
4.17(-1.84)
4.77
Last 3 outings: 2026-09-07 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.54
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
ATL · JR Ritchie
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs CHC · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
94
104(+10)
98
Location+
97
96(-2)
98
Pitching+
98
101(+4)
101
botStf
51
55(+4)
54
botCmd
49
52(+3)
52
botOvr
49
55(+7)
53
SIERA
4.91
4.20(-0.71)
4.69
Last 3 starts: 2026-06-23 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.82
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.085 R/PA · 0.121 R/out · worst: AJ Smith-Shawver (4.67)
CIN
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Emilio Pagán
CLOSER
CL
4.32
25.9
6.6
0.91
24/0/15
stable
Graham Ashcraft
SETUP
MR
3.59
27.3
15.8
1.04
1/11/5
stable
Brock Burke
SETUP
SU
3.75
23.9
12.8
0.95
2/21/10
stable
Pierce Johnson
SETUP
MR
4.87
19.2
9.4
0.88
1/8/8
stable
Connor Phillips
SETUP
MR
5.84
21.1
21.1
1.11
1/5/6
stable
Luis Mey
MR
MR
3.52
30.9
13.2
1.24
0/4/0
ramping down
Tejay Antone
MR
SU
3.84
24.3
7.2
1.00
1/10/6
stable
Zach McCambley
MR
MR
4.54
21.3
12.8
1.08
0/0/3
ramping down
Carson Spiers
unknown
LR
10.34
29.4
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
ATL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Raisel Iglesias
CLOSER
CL
3.26
26.3
7.3
1.04
34/0/29
stable
Dylan Lee
SETUP
SU
2.14
29.7
6.6
0.97
0/30/1
stable
Didier Fuentes
SETUP
SU
2.42
31.6
7.3
1.20
3/18/4
ramping down
Dylan Dodd
SETUP
MR
3.65
27.6
7.7
1.18
2/14/4
ramping down
Brent Suter
OPENER
MR
3.63
20.4
6.9
1.54
0/3/13
stable
Victor Mederos
MR
MR
2.97
22.5
8.7
1.87
1/2/4
ramping up
Owen Murphy
MR
MR
5.53
19.0
7.1
2.22
0/0/2
insufficient data
Ray Kerr
unknown
LR
3.94
20.0
1.8
—
0/2/0
—
AJ Smith-Shawver
unknown
MR
5.52
18.3
12.2
—
0/1/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.