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today's slate

TOR @ BAL

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824785past slate · free
refreshed 67h 4m ago· lineups expected / expected may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
60°F
humidity 87%
wind
6 mph
in from CF
precip
55%
overcast
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.20 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricMax ScherzerRHP · TORChris BassittRHP · BAL
xERA 20264.364.96
xwOBA 20260.3200.339
wOBA−xwOBA 20260.0110.007
xERA 20254.644.16
xwOBA 20250.3320.316
Outs/TB 25-261.661.83
FIP 25-265.214.14
kwERA 25-263.933.87
K% 25-2620.2%20.3%
BB% 25-268.0%7.6%
IP 25+26 combined157.7267.3
ERA actual 20266.074.64
ERA (L4)3.974.30
WHIP (L4)0.971.52
K% (L4)20.0%20.4%
BB% (L4)6.7%10.7%
IP/gm (L4)5.675.75
L4 window08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)90 (−3)100 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)6.30 (+0.74)4.44 (−0.50)
Arsenal RV/100-0.32-0.53

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -0.32
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.331
  • Slider—-4.10xwOBA 0.353
  • Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.261
  • Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.286
  • Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.371

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.53
  • Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.362
  • Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.288
  • Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.361
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-3.20xwOBA 0.390
  • Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.268
  • Changeup—-0.50xwOBA 0.376
  • Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.218

away · TOR vs RHP

projected
Σ xwOBA
2.686
Σ match
2.944
Σ FRV
+32.1
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFBrett Bateman0.3060.336+3.7
2DHGeorge Springer0.3040.349-0.3
31BVladimir Guerrero0.3350.372+5.9
4CAlejandro Kirk0.3100.334+9.2
5RFNathan Lukes0.2890.297+8.2
63BKazuma Okamoto0.3280.343-3.5
7LFJosh Smith0.2810.318-2.4
8SSAndrés Giménez0.2730.310+15.1
92BErnie Clement0.2600.285-3.8

home · BAL vs RHP

projected
Σ xwOBA
2.868
Σ match
2.985
Σ FRV
-8.8
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
11BPete Alonso0.3970.417-2.3
2LFDylan Beavers0.2930.307-8.3
3DHCoby Mayo0.3360.354-1.7
4SSGunnar Henderson0.3230.319+1.4
53BChristian Encarnacion-Strand0.3340.344+1.1
6CSamuel Basallo0.3180.323-3.9
72BJeremiah Jackson0.2830.298-1.7
8RFLeody Taveras0.2700.284-1.9
9CFColton Cowser0.3140.338+8.4

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk
  • FRV+9.2
  • framing+7.0
  • blocking+3.6
  • throwing-1.4

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo
  • FRV-3.9
  • framing-5.8
  • blocking+1.0
  • throwing+1.4

TOR · Max Scherzer

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs DET · 5.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9489(-5)90
Location+104108(+3)106
Pitching+98101(+3)96
botStf4947(-2)46
botCmd5457(+3)57
botOvr5152(+0)52
SIERA5.576.89(+1.32)6.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.42

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Chris Bassitt

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs NYM · 6.2 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9792(-5)100
Location+100112(+12)104
Pitching+96106(+10)102
botStf4647(+1)48
botCmd5455(+2)55
botOvr5352(-0)53
SIERA4.943.48(-1.46)4.44

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.36

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.32–0.51]
0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.70)
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.28)

TOR

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Louis VarlandCLOSERCL1.8631.27.61.1134/5/31stable
Paul SewaldCLOSERMR5.3125.06.10.9124/3/33stable
Tyler RogersSETUPSU3.3813.47.60.974/32/6stable
Mason FluhartyOPENERMR3.6625.110.80.761/19/5stable
Braydon FisherOPENERMR4.3423.913.81.051/13/7stable
Spencer MilesSWINGSU2.6523.96.32.372/4/6ramping up
Chad DallasMRLR4.5524.612.32.330/2/0insufficient data
Brendon LittleMOP_UPMR5.1033.919.40.950/3/2ramping up
Brendan CellucciunknownMR1.2242.110.5—0/0/0—
José RodríguezunknownMR1.4523.10.0—0/1/0—

BAL

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Grant WolframSETUPMR2.6826.97.20.801/13/3stable
Yennier CanoSETUPSU2.7521.85.90.743/13/6stable
Anthony NunezSETUPMR3.4926.910.61.123/7/7stable
Andrew KittredgeSETUPCL3.7918.65.20.8710/9/11stable
Rico GarciaSETUPCL3.8926.08.40.9310/18/16stable
Josh WalkerMRMR3.2623.18.51.201/4/3ramping down
Alex HoppeMRMR3.3824.210.21.141/5/13stable
Cam SandersMRMR3.4828.915.61.003/1/5stable
Félix BautistaunknownMR1.5940.020.0—0/0/0—
Luis De LeónunknownLR4.1315.66.2—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
0
0 TOR · 0 BAL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

TOR

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP

BAL

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP

sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks