Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824709past slate · free
refreshed 68h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Fenway Park
gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
56°F
humidity 61%
wind
6 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
mostly clear
park
BOS
open · HP→CF 46°
wind impact on total
-0.14 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Parker MessickLHP · CLE
Payton TolleLHP · BOS
xERA 2026
3.11
2.66
xwOBA 2026
0.273
0.253
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.003
0.029
xERA 2025
3.07
4.67
xwOBA 2025
0.274
0.333
Outs/TB 25-26
2.26
2.14
FIP 25-26
3.08
3.36
kwERA 25-26
3.06
2.82
K% 25-26
25.6%
28.5%
BB% 25-26
6.1%
7.0%
IP 25+26 combined
218.0
159.3
ERA actual 2026
2.57
3.02
ERA (L4)
3.09
2.74
WHIP (L4)
1.20
1.00
K% (L4)
30.3%
34.8%
BB% (L4)
6.1%
5.4%
IP/gm (L4)
5.83
5.75
L4 window
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/25→09/13 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (−0)
118 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.86 (−0.83)
2.35 (−1.17)
Arsenal RV/100
1.04
0.74
away arsenal — CLE
RV/100 1.04
4-Seam Fastball—+2.30xwOBA 0.254
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.204
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.353
Curveball—-2.70xwOBA 0.362
Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.385
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.340
home arsenal — BOS
RV/100 0.74
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.248
Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.304
Cutter—+2.00xwOBA 0.256
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.142
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.348
away · CLE vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.770
Σ match
2.401
Σ FRV
+8.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Steven Kwan
0.327
0.279
+7.1
2
3B
José Ramírez
0.329
0.283
+2.1
3
RF
Chase DeLauter
0.346
0.291
+1.8
4
DH
Jo Adell
0.325
0.287
-9.3
5
LF
Angel Martínez
0.304
0.265
+1.0
6
1B
David Fry
0.264
0.232
-1.8
7
2B
Travis Bazzana
0.303
0.267
-1.9
8
C
Austin Hedges
0.277
0.239
-1.5
9
SS
Brayan Rocchio
0.295
0.257
+10.7
home · BOS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.836
Σ match
2.585
Σ FRV
+20.8
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Roman Anthony
0.346
0.317
-0.0
2
1B
Nick Sogard
0.310
0.279
+3.4
3
DH
Jahmai Jones
0.330
0.306
-1.6
4
RF
Wilyer Abreu
0.350
0.312
+4.9
5
C
Adley Rutschman
0.327
0.288
+11.3
6
3B
Caleb Durbin
0.295
0.266
+5.3
7
2B
Andruw Monasterio
0.292
0.276
-9.5
8
SS
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
0.297
0.261
+4.7
9
CF
Nate Eaton
0.289
0.280
+2.4
defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Hedges
FRV-1.5
framing+1.6
blocking-0.9
throwing-2.3
defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)
Adley Rutschman
FRV+11.3
framing+6.5
blocking+0.9
throwing+3.9
CLE · Parker Messick
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs CWS · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
103(+6)
97
Location+
106
113(+8)
108
Pitching+
105
115(+10)
106
botStf
51
54(+3)
52
botCmd
54
60(+5)
56
botOvr
54
61(+7)
57
SIERA
3.68
2.28(-1.40)
2.86
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.86
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
BOS · Payton Tolle
Last outing 2026-09-13 vs KC · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
114
118(+3)
118
Location+
100
97(-3)
106
Pitching+
112
110(-2)
120
botStf
56
54(-2)
56
botCmd
58
55(-3)
59
botOvr
60
56(-4)
60
SIERA
3.53
2.86(-0.67)
2.35
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-31 → 2026-09-13. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.75
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-13; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]
0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.19)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.