Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824624past slate · free
refreshed 67h 47m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Wrigley Field
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
59°F
humidity 66%
wind
13 mph
in from CF
precip
2%
overcast
park
CHC
open · HP→CF 36°
wind impact on total
-0.47 R/Gmoderate in
Moderate wind in: -0.47 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Janson JunkRHP · MIA
Shota ImanagaLHP · CHC
xERA 2026
4.42
3.81
xwOBA 2026
0.322
0.301
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.007
0.009
xERA 2025
4.45
4.07
xwOBA 2025
0.326
0.313
Outs/TB 25-26
1.88
1.85
FIP 25-26
3.70
4.68
kwERA 25-26
3.97
3.31
K% 25-26
16.6%
22.5%
BB% 25-26
4.7%
5.0%
IP 25+26 combined
224.0
313.0
ERA actual 2026
4.50
3.80
ERA (L4)
6.32
3.91
WHIP (L4)
1.60
1.00
K% (L4)
14.3%
22.0%
BB% (L4)
7.1%
3.3%
IP/gm (L4)
3.92
5.75
L4 window
08/30→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
103 (+4)
91 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
5.06 (+0.14)
3.31 (−0.63)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.30
0.19
away arsenal — MIA
RV/100 -0.30
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.318
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.338
Changeup—+0.10xwOBA 0.307
Sweeper—-2.60xwOBA 0.328
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.265
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.367
home arsenal — CHC
RV/100 0.19
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.320
Split-Finger—+1.20xwOBA 0.235
Sweeper—-1.70xwOBA 0.369
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.386
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.331
away · MIA vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.606
Σ match
2.714
Σ FRV
-0.5
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Heriberto Hernández
0.347
0.341
-0.1
2
SS
Otto Lopez
0.328
0.334
+10.5
3
DH
Kyle Stowers
0.324
0.295
-3.6
4
3B
Javier Sanoja
0.293
0.287
+2.7
5
C
Agustín Ramírez
0.285
0.278
-4.5
6
CF
Esteury Ruiz
0.282
0.293
-3.8
7
RF
Griffin Conine
0.362
0.355
-1.3
8
1B
Deyvison De Los Santos
0.150
0.252
-0.5
9
2B
Jared Serna
0.235
0.279
+0.2
home · CHC vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.932
Σ match
2.891
Σ FRV
+62.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Pete Crow-Armstrong
0.377
0.379
+26.8
2
RF
Seiya Suzuki
0.339
0.336
+7.9
3
1B
Michael Busch
0.333
0.315
+2.4
4
DH
Michael Conforto
0.335
0.335
-1.8
5
LF
Ian Happ
0.316
0.312
+5.9
6
2B
Nico Hoerner
0.322
0.316
+8.7
7
3B
Pedro Ramírez
0.287
0.284
+0.8
8
C
Carson Kelly
0.315
0.308
+0.4
9
SS
Dansby Swanson
0.308
0.305
+11.5
defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)
Agustín Ramírez
FRV-4.5
framing-2.6
blocking-1.3
throwing-0.6
defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carson Kelly
FRV+0.4
framing+1.2
blocking+1.6
throwing-2.4
MIA · Janson Junk
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs AZ · 3.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
99
107(+8)
103
Location+
108
111(+3)
120
Pitching+
107
113(+6)
122
botStf
53
55(+2)
55
botCmd
60
64(+4)
66
botOvr
58
64(+5)
65
SIERA
4.93
3.98(-0.94)
5.06
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
CHC · Shota Imanaga
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs ATL · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
92
95(+3)
91
Location+
109
122(+13)
115
Pitching+
102
115(+13)
108
botStf
48
49(+1)
48
botCmd
53
57(+5)
52
botOvr
52
56(+4)
52
SIERA
3.94
1.88(-2.06)
3.31
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.70
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Colin Rea (4.30)
MIA
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Calvin Faucher
SETUP
CL
2.97
24.6
12.9
0.98
3/17/7
stable
Michael Petersen
SETUP
SU
3.07
30.6
10.6
1.06
1/25/4
stable
Dax Fulton
BULK
MR
3.44
23.6
13.6
2.50
0/0/3
ramping down
Cade Gibson
MR
MR
4.14
19.2
9.9
1.28
0/4/7
stable
Victor Vodnik
MR
MR
4.24
15.7
12.6
1.08
4/6/12
stable
Josh Ekness
MR
MR
4.72
17.4
14.9
0.89
1/2/2
stable
Tyler Zuber
MR
SU
5.34
24.0
6.4
0.87
1/10/5
stable
Jack Ralston
unknown
MR
5.29
26.3
10.5
—
0/3/0
—
Bradley Blalock
unknown
LR
6.84
25.7
8.6
—
0/0/0
—
CHC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Daniel Palencia
CLOSER
CL
4.08
25.2
8.7
0.88
3/2/12
stable
Ryan Zeferjahn
SETUP
CL
3.81
31.3
13.1
1.15
6/14/15
stable
Jacob Webb
SETUP
MR
4.10
25.5
8.7
0.98
9/8/14
stable
Caleb Thielbar
SETUP
MR
4.81
29.2
8.9
0.85
3/7/6
stable
Javier Assad
BULK
MR
5.00
16.3
7.0
3.90
2/0/3
ramping up
Ryan Rolison
OPENER
MR
4.03
20.9
11.1
1.12
3/7/13
stable
Aaron Civale
SP
MR
4.56
18.8
7.2
4.67
2/1/0
ramping down
Colin Rea
SP
LR
4.84
17.3
8.1
5.03
1/0/1
ramping up
Edward Cabrera
SP
MR
5.27
20.4
9.9
5.17
0/0/0
ramping down
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.