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today's slate

AZ @ COL

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824302past slate · free

refreshed 68h 26m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

66°F

humidity 53%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.06 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Michael SorokaRHP · AZ	Kyle FreelandLHP · COL
xERA 2026	4.21	5.33
xwOBA 2026	0.315	0.350
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.028	0.027
xERA 2025	3.53	4.96
xwOBA 2025	0.293	0.342
Outs/TB 25-26	2.18	1.49
FIP 25-26	3.60	4.54
kwERA 25-26	3.31	3.89
K% 25-26	24.2%	17.8%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	5.1%
IP 25+26 combined	194.0	291.0
ERA actual 2026	3.45	6.38
ERA (L4)	4.42	4.05
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.40
K% (L4)	22.5%	12.5%
BB% (L4)	10.0%	5.7%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.00
L4 window	08/10→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/08→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.88	-1.09

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.88

Slurve—+1.20xwOBA 0.260
4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.353
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.355
Cutter—+0.20xwOBA 0.369
Sinker—+3.00xwOBA 0.298

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.09

4-Seam Fastball—-2.50xwOBA 0.392
Curveball—-2.10xwOBA 0.338
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.372
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.368
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.261
Sinker—-1.10xwOBA 0.346

away · AZ vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.868

Σ match

3.261

Σ FRV

+38.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.297	0.347	+3.6
2	DH	Ketel Marte	0.345	0.397	+4.8
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.363	0.405	+7.9
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.327	0.361	+12.4
5	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.293	0.342	+2.4
6	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.314	0.359	+0.8
7	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.343	0.388	+5.0
8	LF	Tim Tawa	0.306	0.331	+0.2
9	1B	Jose Fernandez	0.280	0.331	+1.0

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.825

Σ match

2.917

Σ FRV

-6.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.325	0.336	-0.8
2	2B	Connor Norby	0.306	0.317	-2.2
3	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.336	0.341	+4.9
4	C	Hunter Goodman	0.320	0.334	-2.4
5	SS	Cole Carrigg	0.311	0.322	+0.4
6	3B	Kyle Karros	0.341	0.353	+0.4
7	DH	Mickey Moniak	0.277	0.291	+0.1
8	RF	Troy Johnston	0.323	0.333	-3.1
9	LF	Zac Veen	0.286	0.290	-3.5

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+7.9
framing+5.2
blocking+1.1
throwing+1.6

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-2.4
framing-0.1
blocking-0.7
throwing-1.6

AZ · Michael Soroka

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs MIA · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-22: Stuff+ 96 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 90 · botStf 46 · botCmd 49 · botOvr 48 · SIERA 6.05

2026-08-16: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 97 · Pitching+ 87 · botStf 50 · botCmd 49 · botOvr 49 · SIERA 3.76

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Kyle Freeland

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs SD · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-19: Stuff+ 90 · Location+ 107 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 49 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 3.19

2026-08-14: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 112 · Pitching+ 99 · botStf 47 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.79

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Zac Gallen (4.66)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.44–0.53]

0.114 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Zach Agnos (4.69)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	CL	2.34	31.3	6.0	0.83	5/17/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.73	28.3	9.2	0.92	3/18/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	2.79	19.0	4.4	0.93	1/10/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.62	25.6	6.1	0.93	3/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.66	16.0	5.1	1.00	0/14/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	4.93	20.7	9.9	0.95	3/5/22	stable
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	2.30	33.3	13.3	—	0/1/0	—
Ryne Nelson	SP	MR	5.33	17.5	6.6	5.56	0/0/0	ramping up
Zac Gallen	SP	LR	5.35	13.6	7.5	5.16	0/0/0	ramping up

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.85	25.2	12.6	0.79	15/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.23	21.3	13.2	0.83	2/13/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	SU	4.27	20.6	12.9	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.56	18.4	5.7	0.86	2/13/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	MR	5.35	19.2	11.2	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	14.6	8.7	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.02	23.3	15.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	4.38	23.6	7.9	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 AZ · 2 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

7 R

13H · 1HR · 2BB · 3K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.568 · K% 7.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

COL

2 R

3H · 1HR · 1BB · 11K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.241 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 3 K · relief 6.0 IP · 4 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Geraldo Perdomo (SS) · 3-5 | RBI, R, SB3 H
Nolan Arenado (3B) · 3-5 | HR, 2B, KHR · 3 H · 7 TB

tough nights

Jose Fernandez (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

COL · standout lines

big nights

Mickey Moniak (DH) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Jake McCarthy (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K, CS0-for-4 · 2 K
TJ Rumfield (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Hunter Goodman (C) · 0-4 | K, CS0-for-4