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today's slate

WSH @ DET

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824222past slate · free

refreshed 68h 29m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Comerica Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

62°F

humidity 65%

wind

8 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

DET

open · HP→CF 150°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

WSH: Riley Cornelio opens → bulk: Miles Mikolas· predicted bulk based on 2/14 prior short outings

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Riley CornelioRHP · opener · WSH	Miles MikolasRHP · bulk · WSH	Drew AndersonRHP · DET
xERA 2026	3.68	5.48	3.81
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.354	0.301
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.006	0.010	0.016
xERA 2025	—	5.27	—
xwOBA 2025	—	0.351	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.74	1.48	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.12	5.34	4.18
kwERA 25-26	4.64	4.39	3.58
K% 25-26	23.9%	13.5%	25.1%
BB% 25-26	17.6%	5.1%	9.9%
IP 25+26 combined	32.0	272.3	102.0
ERA actual 2026	4.22	5.82	3.62
ERA (L4)	0.00	8.57	1.74
WHIP (L4)	0.86	1.86	1.26
K% (L4)	31.4%	8.2%	20.9%
BB% (L4)	11.4%	5.2%	15.1%
IP/gm (L4)	2.33	5.25	5.17
L4 window	09/08→09/19 (4 outs) · 4/4 dates verified	07/06→08/06 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−4)	—	93 (−6)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.30 (−1.43)	—	4.73 (+1.19)
Arsenal RV/100	0.11	-1.17	-0.03

away arsenal · BULK Miles Mikolas — WSH

RV/100 -1.17

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.368
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.381
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.319
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.309
Changeup—-3.50xwOBA 0.368
Sweeper—-6.30xwOBA 0.379

home arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.03

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.309
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.285
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.260
Slider—-3.60xwOBA 0.460

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.909

Σ match

2.744

Σ FRV

-5.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	James Wood	0.408	0.381	-8.1
2	LF	Daylen Lile	0.327	0.303	+2.2
3	CF	Dylan Crews	0.317	0.284	+3.7
4	2B	CJ Abrams	0.327	0.316	-11.6
5	1B	Andrés Chaparro	0.345	0.353	-3.0
6	3B	Jorbit Vivas	0.294	0.283	+4.0
7	DH	Yohandy Morales	0.336	0.316	-0.2
8	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.288	0.263	+0.7
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.267	0.245	+7.3

home · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.879

Σ match

3.226

Σ FRV

-16.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Gleyber Torres	0.324	0.359	-2.1
2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.301	0.341	-9.0
3	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.359	0.401	-1.4
4	C	Eduardo Valencia	0.351	0.378	+1.8
5	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.318	0.356	+1.4
6	CF	Max Clark	0.321	0.360	+2.7
7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.312	0.365	-6.6
8	LF	Javier Báez	0.263	0.301	-2.6
9	SS	John Peck	0.330	0.364	-0.9

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.7
framing+2.9
blocking-0.2
throwing-2.1

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Eduardo Valencia

FRV+1.8
framing+1.8
blocking+0.5
throwing-0.4

WSH · Miles Mikolas

Last outing 2026-08-11 vs Chicago Cubs · 3.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	90	81(-8)	—
Location+	108	117(+10)	—
Pitching+	96	108(+12)	—
botStf	41	39(-2)	—
botCmd	60	48(-12)	—
botOvr	53	44(-9)	—
SIERA	4.77	4.19(-0.58)	—

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-06. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-08-01: Stuff+ 86 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 92 · botStf 39 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 47 · SIERA 4.93

2026-07-26: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 109 · Pitching+ 101 · botStf 38 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 6.92

Latest botERA 5.84

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-11; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

DET · Drew Anderson

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs TOR · 5.0 IP

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	99	91(-8)	93
Location+	102	100(-1)	101
Pitching+	102	95(-7)	94
botStf	55	54(-1)	53
botCmd	52	54(+1)	53
botOvr	54	52(-2)	52
SIERA	3.54	5.24(+1.70)	4.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.35

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.39–0.53]

0.108 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.52]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Brant Hurter (4.77)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.33	21.4	9.0	2.15	1/7/4	stable
Richard Lovelady	OPENER	MR	5.05	18.9	13.2	0.92	4/10/11	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	MR	3.99	26.8	8.2	1.79	1/1/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	LR	4.12	23.9	17.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Yovanny Cruz	MR	SU	5.65	20.0	15.0	1.44	0/2/1	insufficient data
Josiah Gray	unknown	MR	2.42	9.1	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	CL	3.41	22.6	9.4	—	3/1/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	4.13	15.6	12.5	—	1/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	10.18	21.7	21.7	—	0/0/0	—

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.60	28.2	13.2	0.89	21/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	SU	5.09	21.1	11.7	0.87	1/14/9	stable
Ty Madden	BULK	LR	3.70	23.9	7.8	2.50	0/1/3	ramping down
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.05	18.3	6.3	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.58	36.1	7.8	0.63	0/13/1	stable
Brant Hurter	MR	MR	3.61	16.5	11.3	1.21	0/1/4	ramping up
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	4.76	18.2	10.0	1.30	0/5/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	4.98	24.1	6.9	1.17	0/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 WSH · 1 DET

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

3 R

7H · 2HR · 0BB · 8K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.394 · K% 24.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 6.3 IP · 4 arms

DET

1 R

7H · 0HR · 6BB · 11K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 28.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

CJ Abrams (2B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, K, 3 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Daylen Lile (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jorbit Vivas (3B) · 0-40-for-4

DET · standout lines

tough nights

Eduardo Valencia (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Javier Báez (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
John Peck (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4