Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 824061past slate · free
refreshed 68h 27m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Kauffman Stadium
gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
70°F
humidity 66%
wind
7 mph
in from CF
precip
0%
clear
park
KC
open · HP→CF 45°
wind impact on total
-0.23 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Anthony KayLHP · CWS
Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC
xERA 2026
4.99
4.04
xwOBA 2026
0.340
0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.003
-0.036
xERA 2025
—
4.51
xwOBA 2025
—
0.328
Outs/TB 25-26
1.83
2.21
FIP 25-26
4.76
4.23
kwERA 25-26
4.18
4.44
K% 25-26
18.1%
16.2%
BB% 25-26
7.9%
8.1%
IP 25+26 combined
149.0
144.3
ERA actual 2026
4.41
3.29
ERA (L4)
6.88
4.42
WHIP (L4)
1.47
1.20
K% (L4)
16.0%
11.7%
BB% (L4)
7.4%
7.8%
IP/gm (L4)
4.25
4.58
L4 window
08/31→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (−5)
93 (−13)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.99 (+0.42)
5.40 (+1.22)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.40
1.09
away arsenal — CWS
RV/100 -0.40
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.322
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.359
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.347
Cutter—-0.30xwOBA 0.436
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.251
Slider—-2.20xwOBA 0.282
home arsenal — KC
RV/100 1.09
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.339
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.296
Slider—+3.20xwOBA 0.223
4-Seam Fastball—-3.10xwOBA 0.421
Curveball—+1.00xwOBA 0.292
away · CWS vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.822
Σ match
2.847
Σ FRV
+14.3
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
3B
Miguel Vargas
0.381
0.387
-4.0
2
DH
Tommy Pham
0.297
0.297
-0.1
3
LF
Randal Grichuk
0.331
0.327
-1.1
4
1B
Munetaka Murakami
0.340
0.356
-1.9
5
2B
Chase Meidroth
0.296
0.305
+10.9
6
C
Kyle Teel
0.308
0.310
-1.3
7
CF
Brenton Doyle
0.241
0.251
-1.1
8
SS
Colson Montgomery
0.303
0.309
+10.0
9
RF
Braden Montgomery
0.325
0.306
+2.9
home · KC vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.851
Σ match
3.097
Σ FRV
+15.0
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
C
Carter Jensen
0.310
0.334
+2.2
2
SS
Bobby Witt Jr.
0.376
0.413
+14.9
3
RF
Jac Caglianone
0.357
0.377
-7.7
4
3B
Maikel Garcia
0.310
0.332
+5.2
5
1B
Vinnie Pasquantino
0.333
0.354
+0.2
6
DH
Salvador Perez
0.310
0.360
-9.6
7
2B
Michael Massey
0.307
0.339
+7.8
8
LF
Nick Loftin
0.293
0.324
-1.5
9
CF
Kyle Isbel
0.255
0.263
+3.6
defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)
Kyle Teel
FRV-1.3
framing-1.6
blocking-1.2
throwing+1.5
defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)
Carter Jensen
FRV+2.2
framing+2.8
blocking-2.2
throwing+1.6
CWS · Anthony Kay
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs CLE · 4.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
104(-0)
98
Location+
103
113(+10)
103
Pitching+
108
119(+12)
106
botStf
54
58(+4)
54
botCmd
53
60(+7)
51
botOvr
55
65(+9)
54
SIERA
4.57
5.34(+0.77)
4.99
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.24
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
KC · Daniel Lynch IV
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs HOU · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
97(-9)
93
Location+
100
96(-3)
93
Pitching+
108
97(-12)
90
botStf
53
53(+0)
48
botCmd
54
51(-3)
46
botOvr
55
52(-2)
47
SIERA
4.18
4.44(+0.26)
5.40
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.35
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
0.116 R/PA · 0.165 R/out · worst: Lucas Erceg (5.23)
CWS
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Sean Newcomb
SETUP
MR
3.31
21.8
9.2
1.51
4/11/6
ramping up
Grant Taylor
OPENER
CL
2.82
31.2
9.1
1.33
10/10/11
stable
Bryan Hudson
OPENER
CL
3.24
21.9
6.3
0.98
8/10/8
stable
Huascar Brazobán
OPENER
MR
3.83
21.1
11.3
1.16
0/11/1
stable
Jordan Hicks
MR
MR
3.79
29.2
15.8
0.91
1/10/6
stable
Trevor Richards
MR
MR
4.12
21.4
7.5
1.46
1/1/16
stable
Hagen Smith
unknown
SU
2.38
38.4
15.2
—
0/1/0
—
Noah Schultz
SP
MR
4.70
20.7
10.2
4.56
0/1/0
ramping down
Luis Castillo
SP
LR
4.93
19.1
7.4
4.87
0/1/2
stable
KC
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Alex Lange
CLOSER
MR
5.24
21.9
11.5
1.03
10/3/20
stable
Lucas Erceg
CLOSER
SU
5.43
14.9
13.5
0.96
12/4/24
stable
Connor Thomas
BULK
MR
5.70
15.8
8.9
3.67
0/4/0
insufficient data
Steven Cruz
OPENER
CL
5.26
26.0
8.3
1.06
7/5/7
stable
Jose Cuas
MR
MR
2.60
24.7
12.9
1.27
0/5/4
ramping down
Nolan Hoffman
MR
MR
3.43
14.0
8.0
1.56
0/3/2
insufficient data
Anthony Gose
unknown
MR
2.57
10.8
2.7
—
0/2/0
—
Nate Pearson
unknown
MR
3.65
21.5
11.0
—
4/6/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.