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today's slate

SD @ LAD

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823897past slate · free
refreshed 66h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
69°F
humidity 82%
wind
7 mph
out to RF
precip
0%
clear
park
LAD
open · HP→CF 28°
CFHP1B3BOUT
wind impact on total
+0.12 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

opener / bulk pattern
  • LAD: Brock Stewart opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricMichael KingRHP · SDBrock StewartRHP · LAD
xERA 20264.392.50
xwOBA 20260.3210.245
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.0290.003
xERA 20254.242.74
xwOBA 20250.3190.259
Outs/TB 25-262.292.54
FIP 25-264.233.47
kwERA 25-263.843.28
K% 25-2622.0%26.4%
BB% 25-269.0%8.7%
IP 25+26 combined254.362.3
ERA actual 20263.032.55
ERA (L4)1.805.40
WHIP (L4)1.121.80
K% (L4)19.0%20.0%
BB% (L4)8.0%13.3%
IP/gm (L4)6.250.83
L4 window08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified08/28→09/20 (4 outs) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)——
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)——
Arsenal RV/1000.671.20

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.67
  • Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.393
  • Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.284
  • 4-Seam Fastball—-0.10xwOBA 0.337
  • Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.293
  • Slider—+2.80xwOBA 0.238

home arsenal · BULK Brock Stewart — LAD

RV/100 1.20
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.80xwOBA 0.228
  • Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.234
  • Changeup—-1.40xwOBA 0.234
  • Sinker—+4.40xwOBA 0.240

away · SD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.931
Σ match
2.175
Σ FRV
+31.1
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1RFFernando Tatis Jr.0.3800.271+4.0
2LFDustin Harris0.3140.246+0.2
33BManny Machado0.3300.244+7.2
41BTy France0.3340.246+10.5
5CFJackson Merrill0.3480.256+10.7
6DHAustin Hays0.2990.215-1.9
7SSXander Bogaerts0.3230.254+4.5
8CLuis Campusano0.3280.231-2.1
92BJake Cronenworth0.2750.211-2.0

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
3.179
Σ match
3.274
Σ FRV
+8.3
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1SSMookie Betts0.3400.371+6.3
21BFreddie Freeman0.3660.369+1.3
3CWill Smith0.3850.417-1.2
43BMax Muncy0.3500.363+0.7
5RFKyle Tucker0.3340.337-6.9
6LFTeoscar Hernández0.3330.350-6.1
7DHJosue De Paula0.4270.399+0.0
8CFAndy Pages0.3400.349+11.8
92BTommy Edman0.3040.319+2.3

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano
  • FRV-2.1
  • framing-4.1
  • blocking-0.4
  • throwing+2.4

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith
  • FRV-1.2
  • framing-1.7
  • blocking+0.5
  • throwing-0.0

SD · Michael King

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs COL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-17. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-12: Stuff+ 87 · Location+ 118 · Pitching+ 107 · botStf 49 · botCmd 59 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 3.94

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 88 · Location+ 98 · Pitching+ 90 · botStf 53 · botCmd 46 · botOvr 45 · SIERA 6.08

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Brock Stewart

Last outing 2026-09-20 vs SF · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 outings: 2026-09-02 → 2026-09-20. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 108 · Location+ 108 · Pitching+ 114 · botStf 53 · botCmd 57 · botOvr 60 · SIERA 5.97

2026-09-02: Stuff+ 128 · Location+ 123 · Pitching+ 146 · botStf 61 · botCmd 67 · botOvr 73 · SIERA 2.60

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-20; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.36–0.49]
0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.43)
LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.38R / inningband [0.35–0.42]
0.091 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Kris Bubic (3.80)

SD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Mason MillerCLOSERCL1.1248.29.01.0437/0/34stable
Adrian MorejonSETUPSU2.3530.57.71.163/27/6stable
Kyle HartSETUPMR3.5521.88.81.400/9/5stable
Bradgley RodriguezOPENERSU2.8026.66.31.092/16/5stable
Wandy PeraltaOPENERMR3.9115.67.51.170/4/14stable
David MorganMRMR3.8424.012.71.220/3/5stable
Yuki MatsuiMRMR4.2326.313.91.351/10/5ramping down
Randy VásquezSPMR4.3115.06.54.830/2/0ramping down
Griffin CanningSPLR4.6722.610.34.240/1/0ramping down

LAD

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Tanner ScottCLOSERCL2.1832.06.10.9423/13/21stable
Edwin DíazCLOSERMR5.3226.412.60.867/0/6stable
Alex VesiaSETUPSU3.2230.413.70.763/20/6stable
Blake TreinenSETUPMR3.5525.69.10.791/6/5stable
Kyle HurtSETUPMR3.6629.312.01.011/9/10stable
Jack DreyerMRMR3.5527.99.31.012/11/9stable
Brock StewartMRMR3.9024.59.61.061/8/2stable
Evan PhillipsMRSU4.3929.26.21.001/8/3stable
Kris BubicSPMR3.5225.211.95.590/1/0stable
Justin WrobleskiSPLR4.2120.35.56.020/0/1ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
7
0 SD · 7 LAD
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

SD

0 R

5H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.200 · SLGe 0.151 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

LAD

7 R

9H · 2HR · 4BB · 8K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.378 · SLGe 0.563 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 10 K · relief 8.0 IP · 8 arms

SD · standout lines

tough nights
  • Ty France (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
  • Jackson Merrill (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights
  • Will Smith (C) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
  • Josue De Paula (DH) · 2-3 | 3B, BB, K4 TB
  • Tommy Edman (2B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
tough nights
  • Max Muncy (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks