Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823543past slate · free
refreshed 73h 22m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 1:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
68°F
humidity 54%
wind
4 mph
in from CF
precip
1%
mostly clear
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
-0.12 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.12 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Nick MartinezRHP · TB
Carlos RodónLHP · NYY
xERA 2026
4.04
3.98
xwOBA 2026
0.309
0.307
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.019
-0.041
xERA 2025
4.04
3.33
xwOBA 2025
0.312
0.285
Outs/TB 25-26
1.93
2.67
FIP 25-26
4.15
3.75
kwERA 25-26
4.07
3.50
K% 25-26
15.9%
25.9%
BB% 25-26
4.8%
10.0%
IP 25+26 combined
337.0
271.7
ERA actual 2026
2.94
2.95
ERA (L4)
3.04
2.45
WHIP (L4)
0.89
0.91
K% (L4)
15.7%
28.7%
BB% (L4)
2.2%
9.2%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
5.50
L4 window
08/29→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
94 (−4)
106 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.48 (−0.30)
3.81 (−0.59)
Arsenal RV/100
0.82
0.71
away arsenal — TB
RV/100 0.82
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.333
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.240
Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.316
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.321
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.463
Slider—-5.60xwOBA 0.483
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 0.71
4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.392
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.234
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.286
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.253
away · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.823
Σ match
2.897
Σ FRV
+12.4
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.347
0.346
—
2
1B
Jonathan Aranda
0.345
0.335
-0.9
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.398
-7.3
4
C
Liam Hicks
0.320
0.322
+3.0
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.266
0.274
+3.6
6
CF
Jonny DeLuca
0.259
0.254
+10.1
7
RF
Victor Mesa Jr.
0.333
0.343
+9.0
8
SS
Jorge Mateo
0.280
0.289
-1.4
9
2B
Richie Palacios
0.310
0.335
-3.8
home · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.844
Σ match
2.914
Σ FRV
+3.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.376
0.381
-4.2
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.338
0.343
+8.4
3
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.329
0.338
-7.8
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.345
0.350
+2.0
5
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.298
0.297
-1.9
6
CF
Spencer Jones
0.328
0.347
-3.1
7
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.296
0.296
+5.6
8
C
Ali Sánchez
0.252
0.264
+4.2
9
3B
José Caballero
0.282
0.299
-0.3
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Liam Hicks
FRV+3.0
framing+1.1
blocking-0.7
throwing+1.8
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Ali Sánchez
FRV+4.2
framing+5.6
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.9
TB · Nick Martinez
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs ATH · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
98
102(+4)
94
Location+
107
100(-8)
108
Pitching+
104
97(-7)
100
botStf
48
47(-0)
45
botCmd
61
59(-3)
64
botOvr
57
56(-1)
59
SIERA
4.78
4.12(-0.66)
4.48
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.77
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Carlos Rodón
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs MIN · 6.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
105(-2)
106
Location+
88
92(+4)
96
Pitching+
94
97(+3)
100
botStf
55
53(-1)
54
botCmd
47
52(+5)
55
botOvr
50
52(+2)
55
SIERA
4.40
5.15(+0.75)
3.81
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.32
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.33–0.45]
0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.19)
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.26–0.65]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.08)
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.04
26.3
8.9
0.96
40/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.04
22.6
4.0
1.10
4/31/9
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.69
23.4
6.8
1.11
3/11/9
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
4.01
18.2
6.4
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
4.99
17.4
7.3
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
SU
3.06
29.4
4.2
1.11
0/11/5
stable
Alex Cook
unknown
MR
4.68
20.8
8.3
—
0/0/0
—
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
4.80
31.8
13.6
—
0/1/0
—
Brody Hopkins
unknown
MR
6.76
33.3
16.7
—
0/0/0
—
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.55
27.6
6.7
1.10
34/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.42
30.2
7.9
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.70
16.5
11.0
0.91
2/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
5.99
10.6
5.5
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.74
20.9
9.8
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.61
17.1
8.8
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Clarke Schmidt
unknown
MR
-2.91
50.0
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.98
27.5
13.7
—
0/2/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
6.96
14.9
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.