Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823494past slate · free
refreshed 67h 23m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Yankee Stadium
gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
65°F
humidity 51%
wind
11 mph
in from RF
precip
0%
overcast
park
NYY
open · HP→CF 75°
wind impact on total
-0.22 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.22 R/G vs neutral. _Short RF porch is the story regardless of wind; cross winds barely matter, wind-out to RF supercharges short HR_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Drew RasmussenRHP · TB
Max FriedLHP · NYY
xERA 2026
3.13
2.50
xwOBA 2026
0.274
0.245
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.027
-0.002
xERA 2025
3.48
3.38
xwOBA 2025
0.291
0.287
Outs/TB 25-26
2.57
2.65
FIP 25-26
3.33
2.91
kwERA 25-26
3.21
3.34
K% 25-26
23.6%
23.9%
BB% 25-26
5.4%
6.8%
IP 25+26 combined
315.3
301.3
ERA actual 2026
2.72
2.63
ERA (L4)
1.44
1.83
WHIP (L4)
0.92
0.92
K% (L4)
21.1%
28.0%
BB% (L4)
4.2%
5.3%
IP/gm (L4)
6.25
4.92
L4 window
08/30→09/17 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
112 (+2)
105 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.75 (+0.38)
3.24 (−0.49)
Arsenal RV/100
1.49
1.32
away arsenal — TB
RV/100 1.49
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.287
4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.277
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.266
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.202
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.401
Sweeper—-2.50xwOBA 0.405
home arsenal — NYY
RV/100 1.32
Cutter—+2.70xwOBA 0.225
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.264
4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—+1.20xwOBA 0.195
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.237
Sweeper—+2.20xwOBA 0.201
away · TB vs LHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.646
Σ match
2.043
Σ FRV
+6.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Yandy Díaz
0.347
0.253
—
2
1B
Ryan Vilade
0.334
0.263
-2.8
3
3B
Junior Caminero
0.363
0.282
-7.3
4
RF
Jonny DeLuca
0.259
0.205
+10.1
5
LF
Chandler Simpson
0.266
0.200
+3.6
6
2B
Ben Williamson
0.288
0.224
-3.7
7
C
Nick Fortes
0.276
0.212
-0.6
8
SS
Taylor Walls
0.250
0.200
-2.3
9
CF
Cedric Mullins
0.263
0.204
+9.2
home · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.901
Σ match
2.696
Σ FRV
+8.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.376
0.347
-4.2
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.338
0.301
+8.4
3
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.329
0.290
-7.8
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.345
0.317
+2.0
5
CF
Spencer Jones
0.328
0.316
-3.1
6
2B
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
0.296
0.283
+6.6
7
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.298
0.267
-1.9
8
C
Austin Wells
0.296
0.298
+7.3
9
3B
Ryan McMahon
0.295
0.277
+0.7
defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)
Nick Fortes
FRV-0.6
framing-1.3
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.5
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+7.3
framing+6.5
blocking+2.4
throwing-1.5
TB · Drew Rasmussen
Last outing 2026-09-17 vs ATH · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
110
114(+5)
112
Location+
107
96(-11)
100
Pitching+
114
106(-8)
111
botStf
54
55(+1)
55
botCmd
57
52(-5)
56
botOvr
60
58(-3)
60
SIERA
3.38
4.51(+1.13)
3.75
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.39
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
NYY · Max Fried
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs MIN · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
107
104(-3)
105
Location+
101
115(+14)
103
Pitching+
109
122(+13)
109
botStf
53
58(+5)
55
botCmd
51
55(+4)
52
botOvr
53
57(+4)
54
SIERA
3.73
3.14(-0.59)
3.24
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.56
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.19)
NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.26–0.65]
0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Luis Gil (5.08)
TB
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Bryan Baker
CLOSER
CL
3.04
26.3
8.9
0.96
40/2/28
stable
Kevin Kelly
SETUP
SU
3.03
22.6
4.0
1.10
4/31/9
stable
Cole Sulser
OPENER
MR
3.69
23.4
6.8
1.11
3/11/9
stable
Casey Legumina
OPENER
MR
4.01
18.2
6.4
1.25
0/7/7
stable
Steven Matz
SWING
LR
4.99
17.4
7.3
3.53
1/1/1
ramping down
Cam Booser
MR
SU
3.06
29.4
4.2
1.11
0/11/5
stable
Ty Johnson
unknown
MR
3.09
39.3
10.7
—
0/1/0
—
Alex Cook
unknown
MR
4.68
20.8
8.3
—
0/0/0
—
Brody Hopkins
unknown
MR
6.76
33.3
16.7
—
0/0/0
—
NYY
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
David Bednar
CLOSER
CL
2.56
27.3
6.6
1.10
35/0/35
stable
Brent Headrick
SETUP
SU
2.41
30.2
7.9
1.01
0/29/6
stable
John Schreiber
SETUP
MR
4.70
16.5
11.0
0.91
2/14/5
stable
Tim Hill
SETUP
MR
5.99
10.6
5.5
0.84
2/10/6
stable
Paul Blackburn
OPENER
SU
3.74
20.9
9.8
1.53
1/11/13
stable
Ryan Yarbrough
MR
MR
3.61
17.1
8.8
1.59
3/2/14
stable
Clarke Schmidt
unknown
MR
-2.91
50.0
0.0
—
0/0/0
—
Michael Fulmer
unknown
MR
4.98
27.5
13.7
—
0/2/0
—
Luis Gil
SP
MR
6.96
14.9
12.3
4.83
0/0/0
ramping up
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.