Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823412past slate · free
refreshed 67h 50m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Citizens Bank Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
62°F
humidity 82%
wind
7 mph
in from CF
precip
13%
overcast
park
PHI
open · HP→CF 16°
wind impact on total
-0.23 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Dustin MayRHP · MIL
Zack WheelerRHP · PHI
xERA 2026
4.42
2.99
xwOBA 2026
0.322
0.268
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.006
0.012
xERA 2025
5.20
2.49
xwOBA 2025
0.349
0.247
Outs/TB 25-26
1.92
2.33
FIP 25-26
4.16
3.23
kwERA 25-26
3.80
2.43
K% 25-26
22.0%
31.4%
BB% 25-26
8.7%
6.7%
IP 25+26 combined
273.0
300.0
ERA actual 2026
4.61
2.99
ERA (L4)
4.96
1.04
WHIP (L4)
1.47
0.92
K% (L4)
25.3%
29.0%
BB% (L4)
6.7%
8.0%
IP/gm (L4)
4.08
6.50
L4 window
08/30→09/18 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
106 (+5)
105 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
2.87 (−1.45)
3.04 (−0.28)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.03
0.89
away arsenal — MIL
RV/100 -0.03
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.315
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.326
Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.354
Sweeper—-1.20xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.267
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.364
home arsenal — PHI
RV/100 0.89
4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.280
Sinker—+1.70xwOBA 0.287
Split-Finger—+1.40xwOBA 0.235
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.277
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.323
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.176
away · MIL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.942
Σ match
2.585
Σ FRV
+7.9
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
CF
Garrett Mitchell
0.355
0.312
+4.7
2
LF
Jackson Chourio
0.340
0.300
+8.1
3
2B
Brice Turang
0.344
0.302
+12.6
4
C
William Contreras
0.336
0.290
-3.1
5
1B
Jake Bauers
0.380
0.332
-8.8
6
DH
Christian Yelich
0.308
0.280
+0.0
7
RF
Luis Lara
0.292
0.248
+0.6
8
SS
Cooper Pratt
0.318
0.278
+2.0
9
3B
David Hamilton
0.269
0.242
-8.4
home · PHI vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.910
Σ match
3.024
Σ FRV
-21.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Kyle Schwarber
0.365
0.397
-0.6
2
SS
Trea Turner
0.295
0.309
-9.5
3
RF
Bryce Harper
0.381
0.408
-12.3
4
2B
Luis Arraez
0.308
0.322
+10.4
5
1B
Alec Bohm
0.330
0.332
-6.4
6
3B
Bryson Stott
0.327
0.338
+5.2
7
LF
Brandon Marsh
0.300
0.309
-5.7
8
C
J.T. Realmuto
0.320
0.325
-0.0
9
CF
Justin Crawford
0.284
0.283
-2.1
defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)
William Contreras
FRV-3.1
framing-4.8
blocking-1.5
throwing+3.3
defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)
J.T. Realmuto
FRV-0.0
framing-0.6
blocking-1.4
throwing+2.0
MIL · Dustin May
Last outing 2026-09-18 vs BAL · 2.1 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
107(+6)
106
Location+
104
110(+6)
119
Pitching+
105
115(+10)
124
botStf
56
56(+0)
56
botCmd
53
54(+1)
59
botOvr
56
58(+1)
62
SIERA
4.32
3.15(-1.17)
2.87
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-18. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.41
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PHI · Zack Wheeler
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs WSH · 7.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
106
97(-8)
105
Location+
106
117(+11)
114
Pitching+
112
118(+6)
119
botStf
58
57(-1)
57
botCmd
56
59(+2)
58
botOvr
59
63(+3)
62
SIERA
3.32
3.54(+0.22)
3.04
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 2.57
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.44]
0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.10)
PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.37R / inningband [0.30–0.44]
0.087 R/PA · 0.124 R/out · worst: Max Lazar (4.71)
MIL
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Trevor Megill
CLOSER
CL
1.87
28.5
6.4
0.97
29/7/21
stable
Abner Uribe
SETUP
SU
2.72
26.5
8.4
0.99
6/22/13
stable
Aaron Ashby
SETUP
SU
3.20
30.3
11.1
1.23
3/15/5
stable
JoJo Romero
SETUP
MR
4.16
21.9
7.9
0.98
0/22/4
stable
Shane Drohan
SWING
MR
3.76
23.7
8.2
3.80
1/3/3
ramping up
Chad Patrick
SWING
MR
3.96
21.6
10.2
2.46
6/11/5
ramping down
Antonio Senzatela
MR
MR
3.69
19.1
8.2
1.61
3/10/11
ramping down
DL Hall
MR
MR
3.87
27.0
14.6
1.29
0/5/5
stable
Colton Gordon
MR
LR
10.38
22.0
6.0
2.33
0/0/0
ramping down
PHI
Pitcher
Derived
Card
FIP
K%
BB%
Mean IP
SV/HD/GF
Trend
Jhoan Duran
CLOSER
CL
1.44
35.1
4.0
0.94
32/0/35
stable
Jonathan Bowlan
SETUP
SU
3.36
31.9
6.6
0.93
2/14/2
stable
José Alvarado
SETUP
SU
3.61
26.6
10.3
0.85
1/16/3
stable
Brooks Raley
SETUP
MR
3.96
23.2
9.1
0.89
1/16/5
stable
Tim Mayza
OPENER
MR
3.18
24.2
6.5
1.15
0/2/9
stable
Chase Shugart
MR
MR
4.82
25.9
9.0
1.13
0/0/10
stable
Tanner Banks
MR
MR
5.48
21.3
8.5
1.04
0/2/6
stable
Max Lazar
MR
MR
7.84
14.3
8.6
1.33
0/0/1
stable
Alex McFarlane
unknown
MR
3.09
22.2
7.9
—
0/5/0
—
glossary
Pitcher metrics
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projected
Final total
10
4 MIL · 6 PHI
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
MIL
4 R
6H · 0HR · 2BB · 15K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.188 · K% 42.9
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K · relief 6.0 IP · 3 arms
PHI
6 R
8H · 1HR · 3BB · 4K · 8LOB
OBPe 0.314 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 11.4
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 4 ER · 15 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms
MIL · standout lines
tough nights
Jackson Chourio (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
Christian Yelich (DH) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K