Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823328past slate · free
refreshed 68h 26m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · PNC Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
59°F
humidity 83%
wind
7 mph
in from RF
precip
13%
overcast
park
PIT
open · HP→CF 115°
wind impact on total
-0.11 R/Gminor in
Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _PNC's riverside location + grandstand pattern creates swirl in RF; calm most days_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Andre PallanteRHP · STL
Jared JonesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026
4.04
3.45
xwOBA 2026
0.309
0.287
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
-0.008
0.013
xERA 2025
4.30
—
xwOBA 2025
0.321
—
Outs/TB 25-26
1.97
2.01
FIP 25-26
4.21
3.50
kwERA 25-26
4.45
2.94
K% 25-26
16.0%
28.7%
BB% 25-26
8.1%
8.2%
IP 25+26 combined
313.7
90.7
ERA actual 2026
3.70
4.17
ERA (L4)
5.14
2.38
WHIP (L4)
1.52
1.01
K% (L4)
13.3%
35.2%
BB% (L4)
7.8%
5.5%
IP/gm (L4)
5.25
5.67
L4 window
08/17→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
08/28→09/16 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
98 (+1)
100 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
4.79 (+0.45)
2.54 (−1.33)
Arsenal RV/100
0.47
0.23
away arsenal — STL
RV/100 0.47
4-Seam Fastball—+1.20xwOBA 0.330
Slider—+1.60xwOBA 0.281
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.296
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.330
home arsenal — PIT
RV/100 0.23
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.325
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.243
Changeup—-1.50xwOBA 0.305
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.251
away · STL vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.966
Σ match
2.690
Σ FRV
+37.7
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
2B
JJ Wetherholt
0.349
0.334
+22.4
2
DH
Iván Herrera
0.335
0.310
-4.5
3
1B
Alec Burleson
0.373
0.344
+6.4
4
RF
Jordan Walker
0.342
0.293
-7.6
5
C
Leo Bernal
0.379
0.331
+1.5
6
LF
Bryan Torres
0.289
0.273
+1.2
7
3B
Thomas Saggese
0.314
0.265
+0.7
8
CF
Nathan Church
0.288
0.265
+1.3
9
SS
Masyn Winn
0.297
0.275
+16.4
home · PIT vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.966
Σ match
2.960
Σ FRV
-3.2
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
SS
Konnor Griffin
0.307
0.308
-3.2
2
2B
Brandon Lowe
0.328
0.328
+11.7
3
LF
Bryan Reynolds
0.354
0.352
-4.4
4
CF
Oneil Cruz
0.353
0.352
+1.9
5
C
Rafael Flores Jr.
0.362
0.364
-1.1
6
DH
Ryan O'Hearn
0.316
0.311
-2.6
7
RF
Ronny Simon
0.328
0.318
-0.3
8
1B
Spencer Horwitz
0.313
0.319
-3.9
9
3B
Jacob Gonzalez
0.305
0.308
-1.4
defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)
Leo Bernal
FRV+1.5
framing+0.9
blocking+0.4
throwing+1.0
defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)
Rafael Flores Jr.
FRV-1.1
framing+0.4
blocking-0.7
throwing-0.8
STL · Andre Pallante
Last outing 2026-09-15 vs SF · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
97
97(-0)
98
Location+
103
115(+12)
102
Pitching+
102
116(+15)
100
botStf
49
49(-0)
49
botCmd
53
56(+3)
49
botOvr
51
56(+5)
49
SIERA
4.33
3.85(-0.48)
4.79
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.64
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
PIT · Jared Jones
Last outing 2026-09-16 vs MIL · 5.0 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
101
100(-1)
100
Location+
104
100(-5)
105
Pitching+
108
102(-5)
108
botStf
58
57(-1)
57
botCmd
53
54(+1)
55
botOvr
56
56(-0)
57
SIERA
3.87
2.03(-1.83)
2.54
Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.76
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.52]
0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.48)
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.