Baseball Daily

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today's slate

MIN @ SF

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823166past slate · free

refreshed 66h 44m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 9:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

59°F

humidity 88%

wind

12 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.40 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.40 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Taj BradleyRHP · MIN	Anthony MolinaRHP · SF
xERA 2026	3.98	3.87
xwOBA 2026	0.307	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.010	-0.015
xERA 2025	4.10	7.44
xwOBA 2025	0.314	0.405
Outs/TB 25-26	2.09	1.49
FIP 25-26	4.08	5.33
kwERA 25-26	3.62	3.76
K% 25-26	24.5%	18.1%
BB% 25-26	9.7%	4.4%
IP 25+26 combined	315.0	62.7
ERA actual 2026	3.81	4.18
ERA (L4)	2.88	4.82
WHIP (L4)	0.96	1.18
K% (L4)	30.9%	27.8%
BB% (L4)	10.3%	5.1%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	4.67
L4 window	08/31→09/17 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/31→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.25	0.23

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 0.25

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.385
Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.244
Split-Finger—-0.20xwOBA 0.233
Curveball—-1.80xwOBA 0.215

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.23

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.314
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.368
Curveball—+2.40xwOBA 0.215
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.228

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.833

Σ match

2.627

Σ FRV

-11.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.315	0.285	-11.0
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.278	0.255	+0.2
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.331	0.316	-3.1
4	DH	Josh Bell	0.335	0.323	-1.0
5	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.310	0.300	+0.5
6	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0.354	0.318	+1.4
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.306	0.259	-1.2
8	C	Victor Caratini	0.309	0.277	+0.6
9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	0.295	0.293	+1.8

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.450

Σ match

2.588

Σ FRV

+0.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.333	0.336	+3.9
2	2B	Jonah Cox	0.264	0.261	+0.7
3	1B	Victor Bericoto	0.302	0.291	-2.4
4	LF	Turner Hill	0.323	0.327	+0.2
5	DH	Bo Davidson	0.309	0.309	+0.1
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.251	0.271	+0.5
7	RF	Scott Bandura	0.113	0.249	-1.1
8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.305	0.298	-2.7
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.250	0.246	+1.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Victor Caratini

FRV+0.6
framing+2.9
blocking+1.0
throwing-4.0

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-2.7
framing-3.6
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.0

MIN · Taj Bradley

Last outing 2026-09-17 vs LAA · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-17. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 110 · Location+ 70 · Pitching+ 79 · botStf 56 · botCmd 41 · botOvr 44 · SIERA 4.99

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 111 · Location+ 100 · Pitching+ 106 · botStf 54 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 3.75

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Anthony Molina

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs STL · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-05 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 104 · Location+ 94 · Pitching+ 101 · botStf 52 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 4.77

2026-09-05: Stuff+ 105 · Location+ 110 · Pitching+ 110 · botStf 51 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 59 · SIERA 2.20

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.42)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.58]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Duncan Davitt (5.40)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.54	21.5	13.5	1.12	22/7/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.35	35.3	9.8	0.94	5/22/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.77	21.4	12.6	0.94	1/13/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.24	19.6	11.5	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.13	21.1	8.1	1.31	4/23/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.77	26.7	9.0	1.04	0/7/4	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.14	24.3	10.0	1.46	3/1/6	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	4.28	22.7	4.5	1.00	1/9/8	stable

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.48	13.0	8.3	1.01	8/6/16	stable
Sam Hentges	MR	MR	3.38	22.8	14.8	0.79	0/10/2	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	MR	3.66	25.3	12.0	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	4.26	12.8	9.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Tristan Beck	MR	MR	4.89	9.7	6.9	1.33	1/0/6	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	6.13	15.9	12.1	2.17	1/8/0	insufficient data
Duncan Davitt	MR	LR	6.55	11.8	11.8	1.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.52	32.1	8.3	—	2/5/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIN · 2 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

3 R

6H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.219 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 21.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

SF

2 R

6H · 0HR · 6BB · 10K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Walker Jenkins (CF) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Josh Bell (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

SF · standout lines

tough nights

Jonah Cox (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Victor Bericoto (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Turner Hill (LF) · 0-40-for-4