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today's slate

HOU @ SEA

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 823089past slate · free

refreshed 65h 46m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

62°F

humidity 78%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

overcast

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cristian JavierRHP · HOU	Logan GilbertRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	4.73	3.63
xwOBA 2026	0.332	0.294
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.011	0.003
xERA 2025	3.28	3.09
xwOBA 2025	0.283	0.275
Outs/TB 25-26	1.92	2.06
FIP 25-26	4.32	3.63
kwERA 25-26	3.98	2.61
K% 25-26	21.5%	29.4%
BB% 25-26	9.7%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	98.0	309.0
ERA actual 2026	5.31	3.69
ERA (L4)	3.10	5.96
WHIP (L4)	1.08	1.32
K% (L4)	28.4%	33.0%
BB% (L4)	11.1%	7.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	5.67
L4 window	08/23→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/30→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.39	0.51

away arsenal — HOU

RV/100 -0.39

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.399
Sweeper—+0.10xwOBA 0.191
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.275
Cutter—-0.40xwOBA 0.443

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.51

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.345
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.306
Split-Finger—+0.30xwOBA 0.187
Changeup—-0.40xwOBA 0.275
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.225
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.335

away · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.826

Σ match

2.724

Σ FRV

-5.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.326	0.325	-2.6
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.442	0.426	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.321	0.298	+1.4
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.273	0.258	-10.0
5	C	Yainer Diaz	0.304	0.296	-5.3
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.298	0.276	+7.2
7	LF	Taylor Trammell	0.290	0.284	-1.5
8	RF	Cam Smith	0.315	0.310	+2.4
9	CF	Brice Matthews	0.257	0.251	+5.3

home · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.885

Σ match

3.055

Σ FRV

-30.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.322	0.356	-9.9
2	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.348	0.360	-7.1
3	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.357	0.398	-0.4
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.312	0.311	-5.5
5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.333	0.353	-0.2
6	1B	Josh Naylor	0.312	0.346	+2.4
7	2B	Cole Young	0.314	0.323	-5.1
8	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.351	0.347	-0.7
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.236	0.261	-4.2

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-5.3
framing-4.4
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.3

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-5.5
framing-4.1
blocking+2.7
throwing-4.1

HOU · Cristian Javier

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs KC · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-10: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 106 · Pitching+ 103 · botStf 50 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 51 · SIERA 3.48

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 99 · Location+ 115 · Pitching+ 113 · botStf 49 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 55 · SIERA 3.13

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Logan Gilbert

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-10: Stuff+ 114 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 112 · botStf 58 · botCmd 52 · botOvr 56 · SIERA 1.97

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 114 · Location+ 82 · Pitching+ 97 · botStf 59 · botCmd 45 · botOvr 50 · SIERA 2.14

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.39–0.47]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.34)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.38–0.47]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.60)

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.61	34.8	7.0	0.91	26/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.65	30.5	15.4	0.92	8/16/21	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	4.32	23.8	10.3	1.68	1/12/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.96	17.2	8.2	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Logan VanWey	MR	MR	3.46	17.2	0.0	1.20	0/0/5	ramping up
Miguel Ullola	MR	MR	5.06	25.0	10.0	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.77	21.6	12.8	0.67	0/11/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.28	28.7	15.2	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	3.33	37.1	10.0	0.93	28/1/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	3.95	17.9	6.5	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.02	23.0	8.2	0.82	1/21/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	SU	4.64	24.9	12.3	0.89	12/8/18	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.64	23.4	8.2	0.94	1/26/2	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.68	12.7	6.1	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.65	19.1	8.3	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.06	25.9	8.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.09	21.5	3.1	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 HOU · 0 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

HOU

7 R

12H · 3HR · 5BB · 8K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.409 · SLGe 0.579 · K% 18.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 7.0 IP · 5 arms

SEA

0 R

4H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.133 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 2-4 | HR, BB, 3 RBIHR
Isaac Paredes (3B) · 2-4 | HR, BB, RBIHR
Christian Walker (1B) · 1-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Lazaro Montes (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K