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today's slate

NYM @ TEX

Tuesday · September 22, 2026·full·gamePk 822840past slate · free

refreshed 66h 22m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

94°F

humidity 37%

wind

7 mph

in from LF

precip

mostly clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

-0.01 R/Gnone in

In wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sean ManaeaLHP · NYM	MacKenzie GoreLHP · TEX
xERA 2026	4.89	4.09
xwOBA 2026	0.337	0.311
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.011	0.008
xERA 2025	3.99	4.33
xwOBA 2025	0.310	0.322
Outs/TB 25-26	1.62	1.96
FIP 25-26	4.49	3.81
kwERA 25-26	3.26	3.48
K% 25-26	24.0%	25.5%
BB% 25-26	6.1%	9.5%
IP 25+26 combined	199.3	325.3
ERA actual 2026	4.74	4.67
ERA (L4)	7.06	7.16
WHIP (L4)	1.38	1.96
K% (L4)	15.8%	8.6%
BB% (L4)	2.1%	16.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	4.08
L4 window	08/27→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	09/01→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.68	0.19

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 -0.68

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.343
Sweeper—-1.70xwOBA 0.273
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.395
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.391
Changeup—-2.40xwOBA 0.341

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.19

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.314
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.329
Changeup—+0.70xwOBA 0.222
Slider—+0.40xwOBA 0.280
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.409
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.359

away · NYM vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.956

Σ match

2.981

Σ FRV

+1.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.330	0.325	+0.3
2	LF	Juan Soto	0.412	0.411	-5.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.328	0.330	-1.0
4	1B	Mark Vientos	0.312	0.322	-6.9
5	RF	Carson Benge	0.339	0.333	+7.3
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.302	0.313	-8.4
7	DH	Francisco Alvarez	0.319	0.306	+0.9
8	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.320	0.320	+5.5
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.294	0.321	+9.2

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.846

Σ match

3.032

Σ FRV

+10.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.325	0.330	+3.4
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.352	0.375	-0.8
3	3B	Josh Jung	0.347	0.368	-4.3
4	1B	Jake Burger	0.320	0.359	+4.3
5	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.342	0.357	-5.5
6	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.303	0.345	+13.1
7	2B	Justin Foscue	0.328	0.346	+2.5
8	DH	Elias Díaz	0.266	0.261	+1.4
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.263	0.290	-3.2

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.2
framing+5.4
blocking+1.6
throwing+2.2

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-3.2
framing-4.3
blocking+1.9
throwing-0.8

NYM · Sean Manaea

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs BAL · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-01 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-08: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 101 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 46 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 3.91

2026-09-01: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 103 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 47 · botCmd 54 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 5.40

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · MacKenzie Gore

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs BOS · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-06 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-11: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 83 · Pitching+ 76 · botStf 49 · botCmd 41 · botOvr 41 · SIERA 6.85

2026-09-06: Stuff+ 90 · Location+ 101 · Pitching+ 98 · botStf 48 · botCmd 58 · botOvr 53 · SIERA 6.95

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Tobias Myers (4.18)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.48]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Winston Santos (5.40)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Devin Williams	CLOSER	CL	3.09	28.7	11.8	0.91	16/0/24	stable
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.87	26.2	14.7	3.39	7/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.6	11.1	1.35	0/2/9	stable
Cionel Pérez	OPENER	MR	4.46	22.7	9.2	1.16	0/6/6	ramping up
Tobias Myers	OPENER	MR	4.74	17.3	7.1	1.77	2/3/5	stable
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.04	23.6	11.8	2.47	0/3/2	ramping up
Jack Weisenburger	unknown	LR	1.63	28.3	6.5	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.97	32.9	5.7	—	0/10/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.03	29.6	14.8	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	SU	4.38	22.7	0.0	—	1/4/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.73	29.9	8.4	1.28	30/3/26	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.76	26.8	13.0	0.85	0/17/7	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	MR	3.77	16.8	6.4	1.12	6/18/9	stable
Peyton Gray	SETUP	SU	4.14	23.8	6.6	1.23	0/8/5	ramping down
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	3.06	19.8	7.2	0.95	4/13/11	stable
Robert Garcia	MR	SU	4.09	19.0	13.8	0.89	0/4/1	stable
Winston Santos	MR	MR	10.09	11.1	11.1	2.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Trevor Williams	unknown	LR	3.55	27.3	8.2	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	MR	4.34	17.2	5.7	—	0/0/0	—
Nathan Eovaldi	SP	MR	4.20	24.0	5.4	6.07	0/1/0	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 NYM · 3 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

6 R

10H · 0HR · 5BB · 4K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.349 · SLGe 0.405 · K% 9.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 15 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TEX

3 R

3H · 0HR · 2BB · 15K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.222 · SLGe 0.138 · K% 41.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 4 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Carson Benge (RF) · 2-4 | 2 2B, BB, K4 TB
Francisco Alvarez (DH) · 2-5 | 2 2B, K, 2 RBI4 TB

tough nights

Marcus Semien (2B) · 0-5 | R0-for-5

TEX · standout lines

tough nights

Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-3 | 3 K, RBI0-for-3 · 3 K
Corey Seager (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Jake Burger (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K