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today's slate

TOR @ BAL

Monday · September 21, 2026·full·gamePk 824787past slate · free
refreshed 93h 39m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 6:35 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
66°F
humidity 86%
wind
6 mph
in from CF
precip
32%
light drizzle
park
BAL
open · HP→CF 28°
CFHP1B3BIN
wind impact on total
-0.20 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Inner Harbor breeze — wind in from RF cools HR rate in early season; warmer summer = ball flies_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metricTrey YesavageRHP · TORShane BazRHP · BAL
xERA 20263.404.21
xwOBA 20260.2850.315
wOBA−xwOBA 2026-0.0050.003
xERA 20254.103.88
xwOBA 20250.3140.306
Outs/TB 25-262.551.89
FIP 25-263.853.98
kwERA 25-263.963.71
K% 25-2623.9%22.6%
BB% 25-2611.8%8.5%
IP 25+26 combined107.7339.3
ERA actual 20263.654.11
ERA (L4)5.404.57
WHIP (L4)1.471.38
K% (L4)28.4%17.5%
BB% (L4)16.0%8.2%
IP/gm (L4)4.585.42
L4 window07/11→07/29 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified08/29→09/15 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)—92 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)—4.92 (+0.48)
Arsenal RV/1000.60-0.01

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 0.60
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.312
  • Split-Finger—+0.40xwOBA 0.257
  • Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.259

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 -0.01
  • 4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.338
  • Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.278
  • Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.338
  • Changeup—-2.40xwOBA 0.358
  • Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.293

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.602
Σ match
2.683
Σ FRV
+25.1
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1CFBrett Bateman0.3030.312+3.0
2CAlejandro Kirk0.3090.316+9.2
3RFNathan Lukes0.2870.290+8.2
4DHGeorge Springer0.3030.329-0.3
51BSean Keys0.2590.286+0.0
63BKazuma Okamoto0.3280.322-3.8
7LFJosh Smith0.2800.294-2.4
8SSAndrés Giménez0.2730.283+15.2
92BErnie Clement0.2600.251-4.0

home · BAL vs RHP

confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.514
Σ match
2.630
Σ FRV
-5.5
#posbatterxwOBAmatchFRV
1LFDylan Beavers0.2960.286-8.1
21BPete Alonso0.3950.372-1.6
3SSGunnar Henderson0.3190.287+1.1
4DHCoby Mayo0.3380.315-1.7
53BChristian Encarnacion-Strand0.3360.302+1.2
6CSamuel Basallo0.3200.307-4.0
7RFRece Hinds0.1960.216-1.3
8CFColton Cowser0.3140.292+8.9
92BJosé Barrero—0.254—

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk
  • FRV+9.2
  • framing+7.0
  • blocking+3.6
  • throwing-1.4

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo
  • FRV-4.0
  • framing-5.8
  • blocking+0.9
  • throwing+1.4

TOR · Trey Yesavage

Last outing 2026-07-29 vs WSH · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-19 → 2026-07-29. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-07-24: Stuff+ 122 · Location+ 105 · Pitching+ 115 · botStf 52 · botCmd 55 · botOvr 54 · SIERA 1.36

2026-07-19: Stuff+ 101 · Location+ 102 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 48 · botCmd 60 · botOvr 57 · SIERA 2.62

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-29; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Shane Baz

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs NYM · 4.0 IP

MetricPrior gamesLatest (Δ)Last 3
Stuff+9890(-8)92
Location+103104(+1)107
Pitching+103101(-2)104
botStf5251(-1)49
botCmd5458(+4)55
botOvr5254(+2)53
SIERA4.446.40(+1.96)4.92

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-15. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.

Latest botERA 4.01

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.51]
0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.69)
BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]
0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Luis De León (4.28)

TOR

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Louis VarlandCLOSERCL1.8631.27.61.1134/5/31stable
Paul SewaldCLOSERMR5.3125.06.10.9124/3/33stable
Tyler RogersSETUPSU3.1913.67.70.974/32/6stable
Mason FluhartyOPENERMR3.6225.410.50.761/18/5stable
Braydon FisherOPENERMR4.3423.913.81.051/13/7stable
Spencer MilesSWINGSU2.6523.96.32.372/4/6ramping up
Chad DallasMRMR4.1521.312.82.330/1/0insufficient data
Brendon LittleMOP_UPMR5.1033.919.40.950/3/2ramping up
José RodríguezunknownMR0.8430.00.0—0/0/0—
Brendan CellucciunknownMR2.0935.714.3—0/0/0—

BAL

PitcherDerivedCardFIPK%BB%Mean IPSV/HD/GFTrend
Grant WolframSETUPMR2.6826.97.20.801/13/3stable
Yennier CanoSETUPSU2.7821.76.10.743/13/6stable
Anthony NunezSETUPMR3.4926.910.61.123/7/7stable
Andrew KittredgeSETUPCL3.7918.65.20.8710/9/11stable
Rico GarciaSETUPCL3.9725.58.50.939/18/16stable
Josh WalkerMRMR3.2623.18.51.201/4/3ramping down
Alex HoppeMRMR3.3824.210.21.141/5/13stable
Cam SandersMRMR3.4828.915.61.003/1/5stable
Félix BautistaunknownMR1.5940.020.0—0/0/0—
Luis De LeónunknownLR4.1315.66.2—0/0/0—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

  • xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
  • xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
  • wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
  • Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
  • FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
  • kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
  • K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
  • IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
  • Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

  • AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
  • vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
  • xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
  • xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
  • FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
  • Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
  • Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

  • 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
  • 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

  • MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
  • Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
  • Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
  • Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected
Final total
7
3 TOR · 4 BAL
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—

TOR

3 R

6H · 0HR · 3BB · 5K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 14.7

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 10 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

BAL

4 R

6H · 3HR · 2BB · 10K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.258 · SLGe 0.586 · K% 32.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

tough nights
  • Sean Keys (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
  • Josh Smith (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

BAL · standout lines

big nights
  • Pete Alonso (1B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, K, 3 RBI2-HR night · 8 TB
  • Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 3-4 | HR, 3B, RBIHR · 3 H · 8 TB
tough nights
  • Dylan Beavers (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
  • Coby Mayo (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
sources · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant · Baseball Prospectus · Open-Meteo · reference, not picks