WSH @ DET
Monday · September 21, 2026·full·gamePk 824221past slate · free
refreshed 93h 40m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Comerica Park
gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteotemperature
58°F
humidity 74%
wind
9 mph
out to RF
precip
1%
overcast
park
DET
open · HP→CF 150°
wind impact on total
+0.15 R/Gminor out
Minor wind out: +0.15 R/G vs neutral. _Comerica's huge CF + upper-deck overhang creates dead-air zone in deep CF_
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
| metric | DJ HerzLHP · WSH | River RyanRHP · DET |
|---|---|---|
| xERA 2026 | — | — |
| xwOBA 2026 | — | — |
| wOBA−xwOBA 2026 | — | — |
| xERA 2025 | — | — |
| xwOBA 2025 | — | — |
| Outs/TB 25-26 | — | — |
| FIP 25-26 | — | — |
| kwERA 25-26 | — | — |
| K% 25-26 | — | — |
| BB% 25-26 | — | — |
| IP 25+26 combined | — | — |
| ERA actual 2026 | — | — |
| ERA (L4) | — | — |
| WHIP (L4) | — | — |
| K% (L4) | — | — |
| BB% (L4) | — | — |
| IP/gm (L4) | — | — |
| L4 window | — | — |
| Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn) | — | — |
| SIERA last 3 (Δ szn) | — | — |
| Arsenal RV/100 | — | — |
away · WSH vs RHP
confirmedΣ xwOBA
2.896
Σ match
—
Σ FRV
-3.6
| # | pos | batter | xwOBA | match | FRV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LF | James Wood | 0.410 | — | -7.6 |
| 2 | DH | Daylen Lile | 0.328 | — | +2.2 |
| 3 | 1B | Abimelec Ortiz | 0.276 | — | -0.3 |
| 4 | SS | CJ Abrams | 0.329 | — | -12.4 |
| 5 | RF | Dylan Crews | 0.316 | — | +3.6 |
| 6 | 2B | Jorbit Vivas | 0.295 | — | +3.8 |
| 7 | 3B | Brady House | 0.338 | — | -2.3 |
| 8 | C | Keibert Ruiz | 0.289 | — | +0.8 |
| 9 | CF | Jacob Young | 0.315 | — | +8.6 |
home · DET vs LHP
confirmedΣ xwOBA
2.895
Σ match
—
Σ FRV
-9.7
| # | pos | batter | xwOBA | match | FRV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2B | Gleyber Torres | 0.324 | — | -1.5 |
| 2 | 3B | Hao-Yu Lee | 0.300 | — | -8.5 |
| 3 | LF | Riley Greene | 0.374 | — | -6.0 |
| 4 | DH | Eduardo Valencia | 0.342 | — | +2.0 |
| 5 | RF | Ben Malgeri | 0.315 | — | +0.4 |
| 6 | C | Dillon Dingler | 0.340 | — | +13.4 |
| 7 | 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 0.314 | — | -5.8 |
| 8 | CF | Javier Báez | 0.253 | — | -2.5 |
| 9 | SS | John Peck | 0.333 | — | -1.1 |
defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)
Keibert Ruiz
- FRV+0.8
- framing+2.9
- blocking-0.0
- throwing-2.1
defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)
Dillon Dingler
- FRV+13.4
- framing+7.8
- blocking+2.7
- throwing+2.9
WSH · DJ Herz: no recent outing on file.
DET · River Ryan: no recent outing on file.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera
0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]
0.108 R/PA · 0.153 R/out · worst: Luis Perales (5.40)
DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera
0.42R / inningband [0.33–0.52]
0.100 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Brant Hurter (4.77)
WSH
| Pitcher | Derived | Card | FIP | K% | BB% | Mean IP | SV/HD/GF | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Lord | SETUP | MR | 4.33 | 21.4 | 9.0 | 2.15 | 1/7/4 | stable |
| Richard Lovelady | OPENER | MR | 5.05 | 18.9 | 13.2 | 0.92 | 4/10/11 | ramping down |
| Will Dion | MR | MR | 3.99 | 26.8 | 8.2 | 1.79 | 1/1/6 | ramping down |
| Riley Cornelio | MR | LR | 4.12 | 23.9 | 17.6 | 2.04 | 0/0/2 | ramping down |
| Yovanny Cruz | MR | SU | 5.65 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 1.44 | 0/2/1 | insufficient data |
| Josiah Gray | unknown | MR | 3.09 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0/0/0 | — |
| Erik Tolman | unknown | CL | 3.41 | 22.6 | 9.4 | — | 3/1/0 | — |
| Jack Sinclair | unknown | MR | 4.13 | 15.6 | 12.5 | — | 1/1/0 | — |
| Luis Perales | unknown | MR | 8.65 | 23.4 | 23.4 | — | 0/0/0 | — |
DET
| Pitcher | Derived | Card | FIP | K% | BB% | Mean IP | SV/HD/GF | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenley Jansen | CLOSER | CL | 4.60 | 28.2 | 13.2 | 0.89 | 21/1/22 | stable |
| Tyler Kinley | SETUP | SU | 5.09 | 21.1 | 11.7 | 0.87 | 1/14/9 | stable |
| Ty Madden | BULK | LR | 3.70 | 23.9 | 7.8 | 2.50 | 0/1/3 | ramping down |
| Tyler Holton | OPENER | SU | 4.05 | 18.3 | 6.3 | 1.06 | 2/14/8 | stable |
| Drew Sommers | MR | MR | 2.33 | 36.0 | 8.1 | 0.63 | 0/13/1 | stable |
| Brant Hurter | MR | MR | 3.61 | 16.5 | 11.3 | 1.21 | 0/1/4 | ramping up |
| Jacob Waguespack | MR | MR | 4.76 | 18.2 | 10.0 | 1.30 | 0/5/4 | stable |
| Beau Brieske | MR | MR | 5.17 | 23.8 | 7.1 | 1.17 | 0/1/6 | stable |
notes
- no MLB Stats API row found for DJ Herz (id 687792)
- no MLB Stats API row found for River Ryan (id 689981)
glossary
Pitcher metrics
- xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
- xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
- wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
- Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
- FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
- kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator.
5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill. - K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
- IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
- Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
- AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
- vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
- xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
- xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
- FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
- Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
- Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
- 🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
- 🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
- MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
- Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
- Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
- Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.
Post-game
actual vs projectedFinal total
11
2 WSH · 9 DET
Projected total
—
Delta
—
actual − projected
Band cover
—
WSH
2 R5H · 1HR · 2BB · 11K · 12LOB
OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.281 · K% 32.4
Their pitching
8.0 IP · 9 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms
DET
9 R12H · 3HR · 4BB · 7K · 14LOB
OBPe 0.410 · SLGe 0.771 · K% 17.9
Their pitching
9.0 IP · 2 ER · 11 K · relief 6.0 IP · 4 arms
WSH · standout lines
big nights
- Yohandy Morales (1B) · 1-1 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
tough nights
- Daylen Lile (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
- CJ Abrams (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
- Brady House (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
DET · standout lines
big nights
- Hao-Yu Lee (3B) · 3-5 | 2 2B, RBI, R3 H · 5 TB
- Eduardo Valencia (DH) · 3-4 | 2 2B, R3 H · 5 TB
- Ben Malgeri (RF) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR
- Spencer Torkelson (1B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
tough nights
- John Peck (SS) · 0-40-for-4