Baseball Daily

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today's slate

MIN @ SF

Monday · September 21, 2026·full·gamePk 823169past slate · free

refreshed 90h 55m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oracle Park

gametime 9:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

59°F

humidity 95%

wind

10 mph

out to CF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 91°

wind impact on total

+0.33 R/Gmoderate out

Moderate wind out: +0.33 R/G vs neutral. _Oracle Park — the famous wind park. McCovey Cove wind blows IN HARD from west most days, suppresses HR violently. Calm summer warm games (rare) let ball fly to LF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zebby MatthewsRHP · MIN	Blade TidwellRHP · SF
xERA 2026	4.48	4.51
xwOBA 2026	0.324	0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	-0.020
xERA 2025	4.67	5.62
xwOBA 2025	0.333	0.361
Outs/TB 25-26	1.74	2.05
FIP 25-26	4.40	5.34
kwERA 25-26	3.60	4.51
K% 25-26	22.2%	17.6%
BB% 25-26	7.2%	10.2%
IP 25+26 combined	204.7	68.3
ERA actual 2026	4.74	4.56
ERA (L4)	4.15	6.10
WHIP (L4)	0.92	1.26
K% (L4)	22.4%	16.5%
BB% (L4)	8.2%	9.9%
IP/gm (L4)	5.42	5.17
L4 window	08/30→09/16 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified	08/28→09/15 (4 st) · 3/4 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.06	0.32

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.06

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.377
Slider—+2.20xwOBA 0.243
Changeup—-2.70xwOBA 0.333
Cutter—-1.40xwOBA 0.405
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.183
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.487

home arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.32

4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.392
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.239
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.374
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.392
Curveball—+3.10xwOBA 0.187

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.545

Σ match

2.928

Σ FRV

-17.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.309	0.326	+0.4
2	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.317	0.335	-11.0
3	3B	Brooks Lee	0.278	0.310	-0.4
4	2B	Kody Clemens	0.333	0.325	-3.0
5	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.349	0.349	-5.1
6	DH	Alan Roden	0.345	0.351	-1.2
7	1B	Aaron Sabato	—	0.285	—
8	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0.320	0.322	+1.4
9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	0.294	0.323	+1.9

home · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.073

Σ match

2.559

Σ FRV

-3.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.332	0.348	+4.0
2	2B	Jonah Cox	0.265	0.265	+1.7
3	RF	Bo Davidson	—	0.285	—
4	DH	Marcelo Mayer	0.259	0.282	-2.0
5	1B	Brett Harris	0.250	0.273	+0.2
6	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.307	0.319	-2.7
7	3B	Osleivis Basabe	0.280	0.285	-5.2
8	LF	Scott Bandura	0.131	0.252	-1.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.249	0.251	+1.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-5.1
framing-1.2
blocking-0.1
throwing-3.8

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-2.7
framing-3.6
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.0

MIN · Zebby Matthews

Last outing 2026-09-16 vs NYY · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-04 → 2026-09-16. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-09: Stuff+ 91 · Location+ 74 · Pitching+ 69 · botStf 48 · botCmd 39 · botOvr 39 · SIERA 9.07

2026-09-04: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 120 · Pitching+ 115 · botStf 49 · botCmd 66 · botOvr 61 · SIERA 6.12

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SF · Blade Tidwell

Last outing 2026-09-15 vs STL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Last 3 starts: 2026-09-03 → 2026-09-15. 2/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

2026-09-09: Stuff+ 95 · Location+ 94 · Pitching+ 95 · botStf 52 · botCmd 53 · botOvr 52 · SIERA 5.89

2026-09-03: Stuff+ 97 · Location+ 81 · Pitching+ 73 · botStf 49 · botCmd 40 · botOvr 44 · SIERA 6.46

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-15; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.32–0.47]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Taylor Rogers (4.45)

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.38–0.58]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Duncan Davitt (5.40)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.54	21.5	13.5	1.12	22/7/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.35	35.3	9.8	0.94	5/22/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	3.78	21.4	12.6	0.94	1/13/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.30	19.6	11.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.13	21.1	8.1	1.31	4/23/6	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.77	26.7	9.0	1.04	0/7/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	4.28	22.7	4.5	1.00	1/9/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.28	23.5	10.3	1.46	3/1/6	stable

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.48	13.0	8.3	1.01	8/6/16	stable
Sam Hentges	MR	MR	3.42	22.2	14.6	0.79	0/10/2	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	MR	3.66	25.3	12.0	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.74	13.3	9.5	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Tristan Beck	MR	MR	5.38	9.4	7.8	1.33	1/0/6	stable
Carson Seymour	MR	MR	6.13	15.9	12.1	2.17	1/8/0	insufficient data
Duncan Davitt	MR	LR	6.55	11.8	11.8	1.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	MR	1.54	32.1	8.6	—	1/5/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 MIN · 5 SF

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

2 R

4H · 2HR · 1BB · 8K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.156 · SLGe 0.323 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

SF

5 R

10H · 1HR · 0BB · 13K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.303 · SLGe 0.455 · K% 39.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 8 K · relief 5.7 IP · 5 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Emmanuel Rodriguez (LF) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Luke Keaschall (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Kody Clemens (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Ryan Jeffers (C) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

SF · standout lines

big nights

Drew Gilbert (CF) · 3-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

Marcelo Mayer (DH) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Scott Bandura (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K