Sunday · September 20, 2026·full·gamePk 825028past slate · free
refreshed 121h 24m ago both lineups confirmed
weather · Chase Field
gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo
temperature
101°F
humidity 13%
wind
2 mph
out to LF
precip
0%
overcast
park
AZ
retractable · HP→CF 23°
wind impact on total
neutralnone out
Out wind, but too light to move the total.
starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026
metric
Will WarrenRHP · NYY
Corbin BurnesRHP · AZ
xERA 2026
4.39
3.71
xwOBA 2026
0.322
0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026
0.009
0.058
xERA 2025
4.58
3.85
xwOBA 2025
0.330
0.305
Outs/TB 25-26
1.80
2.22
FIP 25-26
4.06
4.12
kwERA 25-26
3.61
3.74
K% 25-26
23.5%
23.2%
BB% 25-26
8.6%
9.4%
IP 25+26 combined
310.3
72.0
ERA actual 2026
3.89
5.87
ERA (L4)
1.52
5.87
WHIP (L4)
1.23
1.17
K% (L4)
25.5%
18.8%
BB% (L4)
7.1%
6.2%
IP/gm (L4)
5.92
3.83
L4 window
08/25→09/14 (4 st) · 4/4 dates verified
09/08→09/14 (2 st) · 2/2 dates verified
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)
97 (−7)
95 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)
3.18 (−1.00)
6.00 (−1.86)
Arsenal RV/100
-0.53
-1.80
away arsenal — NYY
RV/100 -0.53
4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.318
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.351
Sweeper—-0.90xwOBA 0.355
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.266
Curveball—-1.60xwOBA 0.275
home arsenal — AZ
RV/100 -1.80
Cutter—-1.80xwOBA 0.383
away · NYY vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.874
Σ match
3.769
Σ FRV
+8.6
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
DH
Ben Rice
0.376
0.450
-4.1
2
LF
Cody Bellinger
0.339
0.441
+9.5
3
RF
Heliot Ramos
0.329
0.459
-6.7
4
1B
Luis García Jr.
0.345
0.432
+1.8
5
SS
George Lombard Jr.
0.288
0.329
-1.5
6
CF
Spencer Jones
0.325
0.511
-3.2
7
2B
Anthony Volpe
0.297
0.303
+5.3
8
C
Austin Wells
0.292
0.494
+7.2
9
3B
José Caballero
0.283
0.351
+0.4
home · AZ vs RHP
confirmed
Σ xwOBA
2.912
Σ match
3.081
Σ FRV
+24.1
#
pos
batter
xwOBA
match
FRV
1
LF
Lars Nootbaar
0.340
0.376
+1.7
2
2B
Ketel Marte
0.344
0.374
+4.8
3
C
Gabriel Moreno
0.363
0.401
+7.9
4
SS
Geraldo Perdomo
0.327
0.344
+11.8
5
RF
Corbin Carroll
0.343
0.346
+4.9
6
3B
Nolan Arenado
0.294
0.313
+1.7
7
DH
Jesús Sánchez
0.319
0.314
-9.0
8
1B
Pavin Smith
0.272
0.296
+0.4
9
CF
Tim Tawa
0.310
0.317
-0.1
defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)
Austin Wells
FRV+7.2
framing+6.4
blocking+2.3
throwing-1.5
defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)
Gabriel Moreno
FRV+7.9
framing+5.2
blocking+1.0
throwing+1.7
NYY · Will Warren
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs MIN · 5.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 3
Stuff+
104
89(-15)
97
Location+
105
114(+10)
113
Pitching+
110
110(+1)
113
botStf
57
59(+2)
58
botCmd
57
61(+5)
59
botOvr
58
60(+2)
59
SIERA
4.19
3.50(-0.69)
3.18
Last 3 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-09-14. 3/3 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 3.00
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
AZ · Corbin Burnes
Last outing 2026-09-14 vs MIA · 4.2 IP
Metric
Prior games
Latest (Δ)
Last 2
Stuff+
97
93(-3)
95
Location+
94
112(+18)
103
Pitching+
91
107(+16)
99
botStf
50
47(-3)
49
botCmd
37
49(+11)
43
botOvr
47
49(+2)
48
SIERA
7.86
4.14(-3.72)
6.00
Last 2 starts: 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-14. 2/2 outings have verified ratings.
Latest botERA 4.91
Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-09-14; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.
Bullpen depth chart · per side
Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.
xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.
Batter metrics
AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.
Lineup status
🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.
Data sources
MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.